This guy is rewriting history. BMW was Kipers #1OA prospect on his big board who fell to pick 10. Austin was tip 15 in every single mock draft out there.
You’re not following him
When he makes his conclusion at the end about the 63% he goes back to talking about the first round overall not the top 10
He states that all first round draft picks at wide receiver, are bucking in the odds. That includes the top 10 and the rest of the first round. That’s why he says every WR first round draft pick is fighting the odds not every top 10 WR draft pick
Essentially, he was referring to the 1st chart again because he says there are maybe six first round WR draft picks this year and Historically, 63% of those would be a reach
or bust
And your truck an analogy only works if a player plays above where he was taken.
If you pay me $100,000 for my truck and then find out you can only sell it for $40,000… and that the same truck in the same condition and mileage can be bought at 5 different dealerships for $40k…well You overpaid for my truck a.k.a. reached for it. Just because you paid me $100,000 doesn’t make the truck worth $100,000. It just means you made a bad call and paid to much.
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He’s not rewriting history
He’s stating the History
Where a guy was projected to go and how we ended up performing two separate things…
And he’s simply measuring how people performed that were taken in the first round, not where they were projected to go
You take a guy in the first round and he sucks… He was a bust, no matter where Kuiper projected him
You’re trying to change the real history based on where somebody was projected to go in mock drafts lol
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Ok, thanks.
I’ll have to look at it again when I get more time. When I read it that first time, I was obviously pretty confused.
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Millen arguably went 2 for 4. Roy made it to the star level until he got to Dallas. So Millen was right about average at picking WR according to this article.
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The definition of a reach is taking a player significantly before they were projected to go. Projection is literally inseparable for the concept of a player being a reach. It has absolutely NOTHING to do with how they perform during their career.
Millen was ahead of his time in theory, he just happened to be one of the worst talent evaluators of all time.
Yeah 4/5 1st rounders on wrs is nuts… but the idea of having 2 #1 guys is now common. At least he stuck with it because the 4th first round wr he drafted in 5 years was Megatron.
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The weird part is the two most statistically dominant college players were the two to bust.
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