2019 in Reflection, the Raiders Game and Other Thoughts at this Poimt

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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This lost season sucks. Period. Talk about firing Quinn and Patricia are appropriate and worth having. When I look at this season I look at the first game and the defense collapse V. the Cards and the Raiders game (the Lions were 3-3-1 at that point).

No need to focus too much on the Cards game as we all know the situation in that we led until we didn’t. The defense collapsed as it has all season.

The Raiders game is very, very interesting. Stafford had a 110+ rating, threw for 406 yards and 3 TDs. The defense gave up 2 4th quarter TDs that sealed the deal. Stafford drove the Lions down late, had the ball at the Raiders 1 but we could not score on 4th and goal at the Raiders 1. But that Raiders team had almost 100 rushing yards at the half alone. The Lions defensive failure is much, much more that failure to get pressure on the QB or failure to cover.

This Raiders game showed a Matt Stafford rolling hard. Maybe a dark horse league MVP candidate yet the Lions were just 3-3-1 before the Raiders game. The Lions had defensive issues all season but the offense has been rolling despite not running well.

As we discuss firing the front office, Patricia and all options in between I think a few observations are worth thinking about:

  1. I cannot help but think about this article after we added Danny Amendola in April 2019:
    https://247sports.com/nfl/detroit-lions/Article/Kenny-Golladay-Danny-Amendola-work-ethic-131445275/

“On Danny Amendola, Kenny Golladay said the veteran slot has a crazy work ethic and it forces him to elevate his effort so he’s not getting outworked,” Rogers tweeted."

Kenny Golladay is a monster. 1,008 receiving yards, 10 TDs and a 19.0 per catch average. Wow. Back to back 1,000 yard seasons. Calvin who in some ways.

  1. Safety Quandre Diggs. I think about Diggs in light of what Kenny said about Amendola. Diggs sucked balls here in 2019. He just did. I don’t know why and I don’y really care in light of what Golladay is doing and what Stafford did when he was healthy.

I also think of some fine stats provided by Spielman54 (I think) about great coaches and their early records with teams. Great coaches turn in winning seasons within a year or two maybe without exception.

Next I think of Caldwell V. Patricia and I have to say Caldwell got more out of his players than Patricia is getting.

I also think about injuries and while this Lions team is deep we were still exposed. Hell…half the DL was out at points this season, Jarrad Davis is likely hurt much worse than reported and so on.

The Lions showed the ability to score, grab a lead but we fall apart late. That smells like coaches find ways get the lead but talent catches up with us. Or a lack of talent on the defensive side…or hell, maybe it is coaching?

Last I think about culture, esp. in light of Diggs playing well in Seattle. I think about Slay and his comments. I think about Mike Daniels WANTING to come here. I think about Snacks being willing to sign an extension here.

In closing I am fine firing Quinn, Patrica and everyone. I am also fine with keeping everyone. I guess I feel like I just don’t know what is going on. Is Patricia really fighting against a culture where guys come here and play well enough to put up numbers but not well enough to win? Is Detroit a place where guys are mentally lazy? I think about the rings Danny Amendola has and the lack of rings for Calvin Johnson (as well as a false start by Calvin late V. the Cowboys in that 2014 playoff game).

On offense I think the little things are starting to happen. The OL has played pretty damn well. Marvin. Jones and other offensive players have played well outside RB, And Bo Scarborough looks like a viable running back. A more talented Zenner. But this defense is just too up and down to be a one person thing.

I don’t know. I am venting I guess and I see mixed information almost at every level. IF Patricia is trying to change this culture I think it should be noted that this task is MUCH tougher maybe than it looks like. And maybe that is enough to buy Patrica a third season?

That Raiders game sticks with me though. We got pushed around on defense. Punked. That is to some degree scheme but also a whole lot of players simply taking it. When a team runs the rock down your throat like that we have deeper issues than just or only scheme. Fielding a defense that gets pushed around is common here in Detroit. That also happened in 2016. See the Seahawks push us around in that Wild Card game.

I guess I just don’t know what to think and I am bothered. Some evidence suggests we are much closer than it looks ad some evidence suggests Patricia and Quinn need to go. Martha…what ya’ got?

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Great perspective Lions. I can get behind what your saying. I found an interesting tidbit about the Raiders game that to me suggest at least coaching is happening. The defense may lack talent. I think we can all agree we are in need of some major upgrades at the LB position group as well as the defensive line group. Justin Rogers did some research and realized that Josh Jacobs did most of his damage in the first half. 16 carries for 88 yards in the first half vs 12 carries for 32 yards in the second half. Think that points to coaching adjustments. D Carr also threw for 138 (??) yards in the second half and those two late td scores you previously mentioned. I don’t think they tried to run less in the second half, thoughts?

I realize that the goalline play to end the game is not popular but when you listen to the coaching staff they schemed it up to get exactly what they got…a mismatch of a 6’5 tight end on a 5’8 lamarcus Joyner and the ball hit Thomas in the hands. I dunno, but maybe it’s more about the players making plays then the coaching staff not putting them in positions to succeed…perhaps it is a little of both. I know last year there was a great deal of talk about that very topic. That MP was scheming the right plays and putting his players in a position to win and they were not capitalizing. A great example that I have used before is the Bears T-day game and the key blitz they had saved till the 3rd and long and sent Glover forcing a punt down one score only to see Stafford throw that pick 6 the very next play. Who knows. FYI, the defense, i do believe, does suck.

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It was really a weird season.
The Lions should have really lost the Chargers and Eagles games and won the Cards, Packers, and Chiefs game. When you kick FG after FG from inside the 5 yard line, you are just asking to lose.
Remember when everyone was excited because they beat the Chargers and Eagles? Both teams are under .500.
The only games that really seemed like lopsided were the Vikes and Giants game. It just seemed like the Lions were 2 steps behind the Vikes the entire game.

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The Raiders game had a Raiders lead 17-14 at the half. The Lions grabbed a FG to tie the score before the Raiders scored 2 4th quarter TDs to the Lions 1 TD.

To start the 3rd quarter the Raiders ran 2 runs for 5 yards then completed a pass for 2 yards. Then the Raiders faked a punt for a long gain. A beautiful play. And kind of the Lions luck in 2019. We get a three and out and they get a successful punt fake. Then two more runs, an incomplete pass and then a missed Raiders FG. Point is they ran on 6 out of 8 plays to start the second half.

Next drive the Raiders pass 5 times and run 4 times but they hot on two huge passing plays for a combined 56 yards. Next up our D gets us a three and out. Flowers gets a BIG 3rd down sack. Then the Lions get another 3 and out after 2 runs and 1 pass. Lions then tie the game.

The Raiders pass 4 times and run once on their way to the game winning TD but the big play was a 31 yard pass.

The Raiders ran a balanced game against us. 36 rushes for 171 yards and 31 passes. Big passes killed us in the second half and the running game killed us in the first half. Pretty much a typical 2019 Lions game. We had the lead in the second quarter 14-10 before we gave up a late second quarter TD.

Giorgio…I don’t like playing the should have and could have games. Your record is your record. The evidence suggests a coaching and front office change is the right play. But emotionally is one more season going to kill the Lions to make sure they know what they have in Quinn and Patricia? IF there is a larger culture change going on trying to teach guys what is actually required to win past stats I get that. And I buy that. On TV we just don’t get the whole picture of guys doing the necessary and dirty things to win.

Concerning the D I think a consideration of early injuries should factor in. Flowers wasn’t the same guy early after missing all that time. Same with Snacks. Daniels wasn’t ready to go and Hand was out for most of the entire season. We fielded Okwara, a less than 100% Flowers and a gassed Harrison early. Add to the the injury to Jarrad Davis early and that was terrible. ESP. as the Lions are losing mostly due to poor defensive performances.

To me the O looks good. I would not fire Patricia because of Stafford or the offense., In fact a lot of young guys have played well under Patricia including Golladay, Ragnow, Tracy Walker and Da’Shawn Hand. This season rookie Jahlani Tavai looked good for a rookie. Will Harris got a lot of experience and looks like a keeper and even CB Amani Oruwariye looks promising.

Point is young players have developed under Patricia. What happened to this defense is the question. Add to that the question of whether this staff and front office can fix these issues. I have to say that Ron Rivera is an intriguing candidate to me. Would I be okay with keeping Quinn, firing Patricia and hiring Rivera ESP. if we kept our OC DB? Yea, I could live with that.

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The reason why they need to be fired now is to stop them from making dumb short term personnel decisions that will have horrible long term ramifications.

These guys are going to go all in for 2020 and if we aren’t a legit contender they are going to spend so much money that will actually go back into cap hell when they get fired.

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I doubt that. It’s pretty tough to get into true long term cap hell the way you could years ago. The money is different and the way teams structure deals is different. I am not worried about that part the way I would be concerned about trading or cutting players, and trading away valuable draft picks for short term goals. Trading a 1st for Pat Swilling or a future 1st to move up and take Sammy Watkins type chit.

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Look at the way they structured Coleman, Flowers, and Jesse James deals.

Those dudes are all going to be here until the 2023 offseason or you are eating significant dead cap to cut them before them.

They pulled the same type of stunt with those deals to make the cap hits low in the beginning of the deal but make the pain be felt down the road that Mayhew used to pull.

Problem is Mayhew kinda had to pull that because of the Big 3’s contracts.

Giving them another year is basically guaranteeing having 20-30 million in dead space in 2022 and likely 2023.

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Teams carry forward cap savings, correct?

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Yes but the problem with that is you save now but making it cap prohibitive to get rid of those dudes before 4 years instead of 3.

Most non Superstar, non quarterback deals have their significant dead cap outs after 3 years bur because the way they did their deals the earliest you could cut them is 2022 and even then that’s doing a June 1 cut on all 3 and eating 8 million in 22 and 8 million 23.

Basically they locked those dudes on the roster for 4 years which for Flowers I guess I get it but for Coleman and James that is scary.

I expect them to pull this type of stuff to the max this offseason with deals that make us laugh at Jesse James’ deal.

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The ‘O’ looks good going into next year IF Stafford stays healthy. Be nice if they can keep Glasgow and Amendola but other than that they’re okay. Not sure Driskel or Blough is what you want for your QB2 though, if it’s me I go for an FA QB. Spend a little more and get somebody decent, somebody with some wheels. Hell, I’d even sub the guy in for Stafford a few times a game just to screw with the other guys. LOVE the addition of Scarbrough and McKissic, I’d keep both of them and Marvin Hall too. And I pay Decker the $10 mil to play LT next year, and extend him if he doesn’t want too much dinero. On the other side, I think they should go with Wagner, but I’d draft an OT at some point or sign an FA cuz I got no love for Crosby.

Defense is different, can they re-sign A’Shawn? I have a sneakin’ suspicion he wants out of Detroit, but I got no evidence of that. Daniels was a waste, although he has looked halfway decent the last 2 weeks or so. He’d have to sign for a whole lot less money. They need a healthy DeShawn Hand and Austin Bryant, who knows how good he can be. Or not so good maybe. If it’s me I draft a bigass DT that can disrupt the pocket and get the QB to move off his spot and also stuff the run. Maybe a super fast Edge guy too. I’d go for a taller LB/Safety that can cover TEs and for God’s sake somebody that can cover RBs out of the backfield. Oruwariye looks like he might be okay at one corner, but it wouldn’t hurt to draft another one to be ready when Slay leaves. And he is going to leave, the only question is whether he plays out the last year of his contract here or gets traded. Dunno. I’d also sign an FA Safety, maybe draft one too.

ST is okay I think, which leaves the coaching and GM. I won’t be pissed either way, stay or go. but next year is it, produce or you’re gone. No more excuses. This team just makes too many mental mistakes, they let a defender come in free to the QB or grab somebody which nullifies a nice 20 yard run. Or they don’t cover the RB or somebody blows a sack, whatever. My gut feeling is that even this late into the season this team is still not as organized and unified as well as they should be as a team. Too many miscommunications IMHO. Doesn’t help when you get fucked by the refs either, but that’s been a problem for other teams too. Games were lost that maybe shouldn’t have been, we’ll see if the league does anything about it in the off-season.

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First, I want them to max out deals. I want as many talented football players on the roster as possible. But two, I think your view of contract structure is slightly outdated. Years ago if you structured the deal to save $7M now and push that $7M into the future, you ate every dollar of that $7M you didn’t spend now AND you ate the full $7M you pushed to the future. Now, you can save the $7M now in case you want to use it…and if not…just push it forward and save that $7M off of the money you pushed forward. No harm, no foul. But it gives you options.

While I understand your concerns and fully appreciate them, I do not see them as being a huge issue. The things I see as being a potential issue long term for going in “win now” mode are different.

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Most fans are going to be very happy with Detroit Lions 2020 offseason and honestly I think they are going to build a playoff caliber roster this offseason as long as Stafford isn’t hurt.

Problem is it isn’t going to be a championship caliber roster barring them drafting 2 all pros and 5 plus quality starters like the Saints did 3 years ago.

If they are here next year the team we start 2020 with is a team that we are going to be locked into for 3 years unless they get fired and we decide to just eat all their mistakes in one year.

Saints ate all their mistakes in one offseason in 2016 and the Browns did 2017.

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Correct. The ability to eat a bad cap situation and move on from it so quickly is what I’m talking about. Recent years and recent policy changes have recalculated how things work. Sure you could give out a ton of bad deals, but it would take an extraordinary set of circumstances for it to put us in “long term cap hell.”

I’m not saying that your concern isn’t valid. I’m just taking the opportunity to point out that recent developments in the size of the cap and how the cap works was a significant game changer. You really can’t compare how things are now to how they were in the transition to this point back when we had Stafford, Suh and Calvin on big contracts at the same time.

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Detroit is in fine cap shape for 2020 and beyond.

To me Bob Quinn’s main issue is hiring Patricia. I think this Lions team is as talented as I have seen. We are getting viable production from later draft picks every season. No GM is perfect. This season and last season is about Patricia and the staff they brought in. And while this defense bothers me the offense with Bevell looks very, very solid.

I go back to Caldwell who clearly got more out if his players. I also think it is true to say that Caldwell was terrible versus great opponents. Caldwell was never going to field a team that can beat great teams. As bad as the Lions record is now I have seen Patricia line up and beat solid teams. I have seen Patricia put our teams in positions to win big games versus great teams like the Chiefs. Yes…his record also stinks and that is the dilemma.

While the losses bother the hell out of me I cannot say in good faith at this team stinks. We are competitive. It is the defense that sucks now but that was inverted in 2018. I just don’t know what the answer is as I think this is complicated.

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Good, honest, non-dramatic answer. Logical and thought out.
…and i’m not just saying that because I agree with it.
:wink:

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He can certainly speak for himself, but his point wasn’t what the current cap situation looks like. He was bringing up a fear that Quinn and Patricia might screw up the cap by going “all in” on a bunch of high dollar signings in an effort to win in 2020…and screw us for the future.

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And there is some merit to that. We seem to always overpay and go all in with the hopes of backdooring into getting asshammered in a road wildcard game. We have never built for long term success.

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I’m not a cap guy, but would like to throw something out there…
I don’t think these guys are on the hot seat. I think if they have even reasonable success, next year (9 wins, or so), they will be retained. I also think they already know this and have spoken of it, behind closed doors. Patricia doesn’t look overly-stressed, in his post game interviews. He’ll be back.

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We have signed high dollar free agents and we’ve had bad signings before, but we’ve never really gone “all in” like he’s afraid of and destroying our cap for years following the 2020 season. In order to do that we’d have to go pretty big. Attaching random names from the 2020 FA class, we’d have to throw top of the market deals at Jadaveon Clowney, Bud Dupree, Byron Jones, Derrick Henry, Ha Ha Clinton Dix and Joe Thuney. That’s top of the market for DE, EDGE, CB, RB, S and OG.

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This is what I go back to. I actually was someone expecting immediate success. I really thought they were going to immediately compete and win. It was iggy and some of the other posters who got really upset after Patricia started talking about patience and started to call this a rebuild. I didn’t want to believe then, but there is validity to that point now. It is purely a guess, I think they sold the organization on a rebuild that would result in a stable organization like the patriots and the Steelers and I think they sold them on it taking some time. It’s has been a tougher transition and you don’t expect your franchise quarterback missing 8 games. I personally don’t like Patricia’s scheme. I am like the old school style like what the niners have. But I think bc it’s such a type specific scheme it’s going to take time to build. Think the LBS suck and that’s a huge issue for this scheme. If you want to use that as a mark against this regime, utilizing such a type specific scheme that is going to take multiple years to develop, I’m not going to argue nor blame ya.

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