2021 NFL Draft: Tip Sheet

A couple of weeks ago, I had the idea to start writing what I call “Tip Sheets” and posting them on here because I just think they’re really fun. I’m going to attempt to do these for the draft and for every week of games; let me know if there’s anything else, but there shouldn’t be. Think of these almost as a “viewer’s guide” for the draft and for the game weeks. If you want to blatantly call it that, then go ahead.

So since this is the first one of these, I’ll explain how it’ll work a little. The draft one is always going to be different just by nature, but normally I’ll have the game matchup or draft team, then give an importance rating from 1-5, with 1 being “don’t waste your time” and 5 being “this directly in one way or another impacts the Lions”. I’ll also give you a team or player to “root for” which is a lot simpler with the regular team matchups, then I’ll write a bit about my reasoning behind the picks. The goal of the draft “root for’s” is to get as many of the Lions targets on the board at our pick as possible, so with this year, I’ll do my best to get Sewell, Parsons, and the 3 WRs on the board for us, as well as attempting to keep a QB on the board for a potential trade down.

Hopefully this will be a decent read. I’ll try my best not to write basically an article on a forum and not make it worthwhile.

So, now that my disclaimers are out of the way, let’s begin…

Pick 1: (JAX)

Importance: 1

Root For: Trevor Lawrence

I mean, this is pretty self-explanatory. No matter how hard you hope that Lawrence slides to the Lions, he won’t, and is going to be picked here, so you might as well be happy for the kid that he’s going to make millions in the NFL.

Pick 2: (NYJ)

Importance: 1

Root For: Zach Wilson

Again, this is 99.9% going to be Wilson, so don’t waste your time even so much as hoping for something else. Be happy for the kid, even if you don’t like him.

Pick 3: (SF via HOU through MIA)

Importance: 2

Root For: Mac Jones

This is clearly going to be a QB, but the question (kind of) is who? I went with Mac here to go “chalk” so that maybe a team is ready to move up for Fields or Lance and wouldn’t for Mac because they didn’t expect him to be there? I don’t know. Pick your poison with the 3 QBs here.

Pick 4: (ATL)

Importance: 3

Root For: Trey Lance/Justin Fields

This was very tricky. Do I pick a QB and slide more non-QBs down the board? Do I pray they reach for Surtain and slide all our non-QBs down while also keeping QB available? That’s not going to happen without them taking a CB last year. Do I pick Pitts and again slide down a QB for a potential trade? I think I’d rather keep options available at 7 than attempt to set up a trade which could not happen at all. As far as which QB? Doesn’t matter. Again, pick your poison.

Pick 5: (CIN)

Importance: 3

Root For: Kyle Pitts

This pick will either be Penei Sewell or Ja’Marr Chase. Let’s make that very clear. BUT, the goal of this tip sheet is to make as many of our options available as possible, and IMO, Sewell > Pitts in terms of potential options, as in I think we’d be more likely to actually take him than Pitts. Pitts is the no. 3 player kind of being “linked” to the Bengals, so root for him to go here.

Pick 6: (MIA via PHI)

Importance: 4

Root For: Jaylen Waddle

The pick before the Lions. Here’s where my “How big is the gap between Smith/Chase/Waddle?” thread comes in. It seemed like most of us liked Smith and Chase, although there were plenty of Waddle supporters. Who knows who Miami moved up for here? Could be a WR, could be Parsons, could’ve been Kyle Pitts. We shall know next Thursday, but Waddle here puts Smith, Chase, Parsons, Sewell, and one of Justin Fields/Trey Lance on the board to either take or to trade down. All the options will be available to Holmes and co.

Pick 7: (DET)

Importance: 5

Root For: Your Favorite Player

Smith, Chase, Parsons, Sewell, Slater, and one of Fields/Lance are on the board. This is probably the best scenario as far as getting options available to the Lions, and we shall see next Thursday if Holmes and co. can get a stud with this pick. I’d personally take Sewell, but who knows if that’s their plan.

So there you have it. Hopefully the draft tip sheet next year isn’t this short (Get it? Because we’re picking later?). Feel free to poke holes in what I said and such, the usual stuff. This is a discussion board after all.

Also, I’ll probably get better at writing these as they go along. Week 18 will be better than Week 1, which will be better than the draft.

And before you ask “Why is this being posted on a Monday night before draft week?” I answer that I’m sick of waiting for the draft, as are many of you I’m sure.

This is awesome, bud. Great idea for a thread.

I think Fields lasting to 7 is the beat case scenario as he’ll (IMO) be the guy to generate monster trade offers. And if we love him (I certainly do) and take him I can absolutely get behind that as well.

Interesting. I’d be rooting for the TE to go 4, and then Chase to go 5, and Waddle to go 6. Then our options include a very viable TD, or if we’re inclined to pick we have 2 QB’s, Parsons, Sewell, Slater, or Smith. 6 options mean we could trade all the way down to 12 and still get one of these. Edit - I compared this to yours, and the only thing I’d change is I’d want Chase off the board rather than the 4th QB. I think your scenario might be more likely though.

Agree great post!!

I want 5 starters in this draft. Given the depth of talent at our positions of need, it’s not impossible.

Many teams with top 1-9 overall picks swing for the fences for unicorns. Pitts, Waddle, Lance etc.

There are 2 TEs in history with 6 seasons of 800 yards and 8 TEs- Gonzalez and Gates… 3 more with 4 seasons of 800 yards and 8 TDs- Kelce, Graham, and Gronk.

It’s hard for me to pencil Pitts in as a top 5 all time TE, which means it’s likely he has less than 5 true impact seasons in his career.

It’s also hard to pretend Smith will be the first sub 170 WR to consistently bang out 1200 yard seasons.

Bottom line- I’m rooting for the next tier guys with similar track records.

Interesting. I guess you’re not a Chase fan then, because I guess I see it as a team is more likely to trade up for a QB if he’s the last one of the “big 5” available.

No, not a Chase fan. And good point about there being some extra angst to get the’last’ QB. That woud hold if teams rate the last two closely. But there’s a chance that they love one and not the other so having two there maximizes the chances that there’s one they like. And that would go for the Lions too.

That makes sense, but it depends on how close the teams value the QBs. I’m sure there’s someone looking to trade up that values one of them more than the other enough to trade up.

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Also, I would bump up the importance of this one. I think it matters alot that this is Mac Jones and NOT Justin Fields or Trey Lance. I think if Mac Jones drops, fewer teams are inclined to trade up to get him. For those of us rooting for a trade down, the importance that this is Mac Jones is pretty high, IMHO.

The importance of Mac being off the board is almost imperative towards trade down opportunities
and a descent trade down IMO…But I believe they’ll make good choices regardless… Or at least until they prove otherwise!!