Actually, no.
We only need one of the three teams on the left to win. The reason is that when teams are tied, they rotate in each round one spot down.
Atlanta](Atlanta Falcons | Tankathon) 7-9 .438 5.0 .423 Lost 1
Chicago](Chicago Bears | Tankathon) 7-9 .438 5.0 .463 Won 2
Las Vegas](Las Vegas Raiders | Tankathon) 7-9 .438 5.0 .489 Lost 1
Minnesota](Minnesota Vikings | Tankathon) 7-9 .438 5.0 .507 Lost 3
Minnesota has the hardest schedule and their SOS will only improve by playing the Lions.
Let’s say the Raiders beat the Broncos (entirely feasible with Jarrett Stidham at QB and Pierce playing for the HC job).
Even if the Falcons lose to the Saints, and the Bears lose to the Packers, the Vikings will remain No. 3 in the rotation which would go as follows:
Round 1
Falcons
Bears
Vikings
Round 2
Bears
Vikings
Falcons
Round 3
Vikings
Falcons
Bears
Just need the Lions to take care of business and one of the three teams ahead of the Vikings to lose (or just win).
Lions would get pick No. 73 vs. the likely No. 128 pick they’re giving up. On the Rich Hill chart, 46 points difference of the equivalent of No. 89 overall.
When you add in that the Lions received No. 55 [101 points] for No. 81 [55 points], for a net of 46 points, the Lions essentially received the equivalent of two late 3rd Rd picks for Hockenson.
Or, if viewed in the aggregate, a late 2d Rd pick, No. 59 overall, for Hockenson.
Notwithstanding Hockenson improved performance with the Vikings and likely Pro Bowl selection for 2024, the Lions saved the $9.3M five year option guarantee and didn’t have to sign him to a $68.5 Million deal, and obtained his replacement (a better TE IMO, for $59.5M less).
A win for the Lions.