Bates >>> Badgley
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This is exactly it. Badgley is fine if you only want to kick inside the 40, where he is 56 of 58 for his career. But if you’re ever in the position where you NEED a longer field goal because the game is on the line, Badgley is going to lose you games. he’s 37 of 48 (77%) from 40-49 and 5 of 13 from 50+ (38%).
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I am not sure their is a world where you would keep Bagley over Bates.
Looking at Bates overall body of work and path it is understandable he is where he is. It is also understandable to question how he is where he is. But the path is unique for every player. This we know 100%
I will not lie. I was a bit concerned about Sewell because he sat out the whole covid thing. Clearly, I am an idiot but little things can make a huge difference sometimes.
To me, Bates is the quintessential “You need experience to get hired, but you can’t get experience without getting hired” case. If he had started just a little earlier in HS or went to Mississippi State instead of Arkansas, I think he’d probably already be kicking in the NFL.
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I’m not saying Badgley over Bates, what I’m saying is that we need to be realistic about Bates. He’s not our player and he’s missed out on several important years of coaching, practice and game experience. He’s definitely an interesting player but we shouldn’t be pinning any hopes of suddenly having Matt Prater 2.0 on the roster.
Bates also might help squeeze a extra 3 points before half not just end game situations
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No I am expecting Butker or Tucker…Prater is washed up
Think bigger brother
This depends entirely on the distance. For the most part the rule is 3-or-less and you go (analytically speaking), but from that particular spot on the field Campbell probably stretches it to 5/6 yards.
But 4th and 8? 4th and 15? It would sure be nice to reliably get 3 points.
Bates has been incredible. But kicking in front of 17 fans is quite different than kicking in Lambeau in front of 80 thousand screaming people.
We won’t know how he handles that kind of pressure until we see it.
I hear you. I think it’s fair to have this perspective too. For me, it just comes down to me thinking that even with his limited coaching, practice, and game experience…I think he’s already a better kicker than Badgley and would open up more options for the team.
I look at what the Cowboys were able to do with Brandon Aubrey, a former soccer player who moved to football, who they signed from the USFL and were able to get a 1st-team All-Pro performance in his first season and think Bates is a comparable talent - maybe better. The Lions have the cap space, the need, and with him already being comfortable kicking on Ford Field turf…it just makes sense to make a run at him to improve a position where we are lacking.
Have you seen the story of his college years?
Have you seen Foxy-boy’s (the GOAT’s) history?
And this is the only thing the haters can hang their hats on. And I am not calling you a hater. Merely pointing out this is clearly the weak spot. As they talk about all the time. Some of the best golfers in the world never make it on the tour because putting in front of a crowd verse 4 people makes a difference. And some can do it and some can not.
So while I am all in on Bates. I expect the Lions to figure this small concern out. I am not sure how you know until you know. I was surprised how Moody played at SF last year. Pressure kicks he did not look amazing. While in college he was a monster. Now maybe it was the field at SF and the wind and such. And I do expect him to smooth out and be a top guy. But if relatively proven guys have issues when they get to the NFL then a guy like Bates must be look at long and hard.
For that matter, I am pumped to see Betts. But I will also not be “shocked” if he ends up being a nothing burger. The NFL is it own animal.
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Exactly my point. I’m all for signing him. So no need for the mob to come for me. But he’d need to have a great camp and good preseason and earn the job.
Bates is a UFL kicker so the bidding won’t go too high.
Justin Tucker is the highest paid kicker at $6M AAV/. He got a $5.5M bonus and $17.5M guaranteed when he signed his extension in 2022.
The player most similar to Bates in Cowboy kicker Brandon Aubrey.
He was the hot USFL kicker from last summer with no college kicking experience to sign with an NFL team.
Aubrey got the NFL minimum with no signing bonus.
I think Bates will get more in the form of a signing bonus, but no guaranteed money.
He could get bid up as much as $100k like many of the undrafted free agents get to sign coming out of college.
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Yeah, I’ve seen the story. He didn’t kick and he didn’t practice kicking for three years. After he didn’t kick or practice kicking at high school.
Fox on the other hand punted the ball 211 times in college games, and had three years of coaching and practice. They’re not even remotely similar.
This depends entirely on the distance. For the most part the rule is 3-or-less and you go (analytically speaking), but from that particular spot on the field Campbell probably stretches it to 5/6 yards.
But 4th and 8? 4th and 15? It would sure be nice to reliably get 3 points.
Also a very good point!
We only had two instances of going for it on 4th down in the yellowish zone with more than 4 yards to go, and we failed both times. We also failed both times at 4th and 4. Those could have been field goals between 52 and 57 yards with an expected value of 10 points (assuming a conversion rate of 83% at those distances). You’d need a 42% chance at converting and getting the touchdown to justify not taking the FG.
BTW, we were perfect in the yellowish zone when it was 4th and 3 or less – we were 7 of 7, with 5 TDs and 1 FG on those drives.
We should still never punt in these situations, barring unusual situations. You never score when you punt. In fact, you always turn the ball over.
Okay, so I have to amend my initial position: If you have Jake Bates, kick a FG when it’s more than 3 yards to go in the Yellowish Zone, otherwise go for it.
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Just cause you’re in punt formation doesn’t mean much when you got Fox and JRM out there. The Lions fake punts have been outstanding for the most part.
Just cause you’re in punt formation doesn’t mean much when you got Fox and JRM out there. The Lions fake punts have been outstanding for the most part.
We tried 3 fake punts last year, all deep in our own territory. We converted twice, getting one TD. The failed conversion was an easy TD for the opponent. Overall the fake punt was a wash.
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Since crazy eyes became Special Teams coach I believe we are 6 for 7 on fake punts. That’s pretty decent in my book. Now we added Vaki to the picture.
If we are going for it as default, shouldnt that be the green zone then?