Amon-Ra St. Brown's measurables indicate he could be a big-play threat in the NFL

2021 NFL Draft Comps: USC WR Amon-Ra St. Brown’s measurables indicate he could be a big-play threat in the NFL

Iowa linebacker Djimon Colbert catches USC receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown in the second quarter during the Holiday Bowl on Friday, Dec. 27, 2019, at the SDCCU Stadium in San Diego, Calif. 20191227 Holidaybowl

By Kevin Cole
Mar 26, 2021

Comparing current NFL draft prospects to those of years past is standard procedure in draft evaluation, though most comparisons are built on the memory recall and subjective opinion of the particular evaluator.

This continues the series of articles comparing 2021 draft prospects to prior years and picking out the most similar comps with a clearly delineated and quantifiable method.

PFF data scientist Eric Eager has done tremendous work building college-to-pro projections, which are built off the robust college data we’ve collected since 2014 and have been applied to exercises like building an “Analytics” Mock. In this analysis, I will use some of our advanced stats for comparison but primarily rely on traditional stats to go back further to compare the 2021 prospects to draft classes going back to 2006.

Without the NFL scouting combine this season, the important measurables like weight and 40-yard dash will be reported through the various pro days that will be taking place over the next few weeks.

METHODOLOGY

The comps below were derived from a two-step process. First, I converted all the most statistically relevant stats and measurables to percentiles based on the thousands of prospects who have entered the NFL since 2006 at each position. Then, I filtered the total universe of past prospects by those who had draft positions, weight and 40 times within a 10th percentile in either direction of Amon-Ra St. Brown. For undrafted players, I assigned a numerical draft position of 300.

The rest of the matching features were transformed by principal component analysis (PCA). I found the closest statistically comparable players by the euclidean distance between the players’ principle components, listed in the top 10 below.

The metrics for PCA are career market shares for receiving yards and receiving touchdowns, best-season market shares for receiving yards and touchdowns, yards per route run, and yards per reception.

For St. Brown’s draft position, I’m using an estimate based on the mock data collected at GrindingTheMocks.com. For the weight and 40 time, I’m using the numbers from his pro day, with a 0.03-second penalty added to the 40 time to reflect the uncertainty of pro-day timed measurements.

Most comparable players

St. Brown’s 4.51-second 40-yard dash was solid at 197 pounds, while his vertical and broad jumps at 39 inches and 10-feet 7-inches, respectively, were excellent (83rd and 85th percentiles). Plus, he ran a 6.81-second three-cone drill (75th).

St. Brown wasn’t a downfield threat in college, but these measurables hint that he can make big plays at the pro level.

Fellow USC grads top the list of St. Brown’s comps, including Robert Woods, whose career didn’t really take off until his second contract with the now-Los Angeles Rams. The rest of St. Brown’s comps are fairly uninspiring. He is younger coming out of school after his junior year, but his career and max market share numbers are solidly good, not great. St. Brown’s efficiency metrics aren’t particularly strong, either.

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2 Likes

Well Holmes is known for his analytical approach, so this pick makes a ton of sense based on the above

Absolutely love the pick.

A young Robert Woods sounds nice, but even then he took a few years to be a regular contributor. So the need for WR right now is still pretty high. I hope we see a move next week

Has an issue with drops and concentration apparently

I can relate.

Interesting. Toughness is there. I want to see more hi lights. I hope he can be great. So far, I"m seeing good.

More of a body of work to look at.

They used him deep a lot. Not a lot of underneath stuff in traffic, which is what I had envisioned. Innnnteresting.

How do you guys see us using him?

Slot. Perryman the #1. The other fast WR 2.
Hock. Swift. Excellent O-line.
Young Vet QB.
Sounds like it could work.

:+1:

Durable slot guy. Above average hands. Fills a need. Smaller, quicker version of Cephus.

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This falls right in line with the staffs preference of football guys and guys from football families. Amon-Ra’s brother is Packers receiver Equanimeous St. Brown.

Agreed, Cephus has some competition now for playing time.

Why the Lions don’t need 30 year old coming off an ACL Robert Woods:

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I still think he is our #1 receiver. I don’t care who they sign/draft. The kid is a playmaker ala Steve Smith. He will have the most catches and TD’s next year, bank on it.

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I really liked how we used him the last month of the season. He was playing all over the field, even at Running back. Mismatch nightmare for teams trying to cover him with safeties and linebackers. We were using him in both the passing game and running game. And he’s a good blocker. Such a stud.

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St Brown is a very solid, masculine energy. TO is an erratic energy. St Brown is a friggin’ Rock!
He’s going to be SO reliable for us…ultimate professional, his body will be right, his mind will be right, his effort will be right, he’ll be helping other players.

Every. Single. Interview. “we love coach” Always evidence of liking Detroit and wanting to be here.

I love the Saint. He truly comes in with an attitude of “nothing to hide, nothing to prove.” A whole lot of “I know who I am” energy.
…I DO think they want to prove the team can win, but he is unapologetic and has nothing to prove, in terms of who he is as a man. He won’t be surprised by any of his accomplishments, and already believes in himself as a man.

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