If you get nutty and draft him at 6, then I want pretty close to the 2K overall like you got from Jacobs. RB’s don’t need adjustment time. They need an oline to give them creases and a QB that can get him the ball in the passing game and he’d be walking straight into that here. If we are more sane and get him with our 1B, then I’d be fine with a 1,200 yard overall total yards delivery. You drop a 1st rounder on a RB you’d better be getting a guy who will put up a thousand yard season on the ground right away, unless your oline sucks, which ours does not. My .02
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You threw out 1/3 of the games missed but that is not an accurate number. Then you doubled down on the inaccuracy by bumping it up to half the games missed. Zeke has averaged around 1 missed game per season. Saquon Barkley has only had 1 season out of 5 missing as many games as you claim. Everyone knows Todd Gurley’s career ended early because of a degenerative knee condition. But over a 6 year career he never missed as many games as you claim. He averaged around 1-2 games per year. In Leonard Fournette’s 6 year career he’s only missed as many games as you claim once. Christian McCaffrey is the current poster child for injured RBs. He has played in every single game in 4 out of his 6 years in the NFL.
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Ok i should have said hampered by injury. Swift only missed a few games this season. But he was only useful for about 5. Saquan was considered a bust in NY before he came back strong this year.
How about you go thru every 1st round back drafted since AD and see what percentage of them were worth the pick? I would argue you are batting zero there
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Again i like Bijan a lot. A whole lot. But we need to be smart about every pick. If he is above and beyond everyone available at the pick then i wont be mad. But taking a running back top 10, when you need half a defense, is playing checkers in a psych ward where your opponent has to be red because they taste better. ■■■■ checkers. ■■■■ chess. Play Go with the real geniuses.
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At this moment in time, I really feel like the pick is going to be a corner. Its almost by default. After the top 2 DL are gone, I don’t think the rest have a floor that Holmes is going to be comfortable with. He’s not going to want to whiff on a top 10 pick. I doubt he takes a QB. I doubt he takes an OLineman. I don’t see a WR in play for the top 10, although some of mentioned the TCU kid. The odds Holmes takes Bijan are probably pretty low. He doesn’t value LBs enough to take one top 10. There are no safeties worthy of the pick. So that pretty much leaves corner for us.
I wouldn’t put it past Holmes to trade out of this pick though. I’m going to guess that is what he wants to do right now unless he falls in love with a corner or QB.
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Well, they needed half a defense last year and traded up for Jamo, who did basically nothing year one. Others disagree, but I think this staff is willing to take risks on exceptional players… Especially players with injuries (Jamo, Paschel, Levi)
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I hope he trades out of the pick for sure. But i wouldn’t be shocked if he took a lineman with potential. I believe it came out that Walker was #2 on their draft board last year. So don’t count out Murphy, Wilson, or Breese. I want Gonzales and branch today but reserve the right to change after a couple more months of digging.
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You want a lineman? Here’s a shake up… How about they take on OFFENSIVE lineman, Skoronski @ 6 and put him at ROG? Minds explode in 3, 2, 1…
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I don’t think we’ll take one at 6 and probably not 18, but I wouldn’t completely rule it out. A tackle with guard versatility (or vice-versa) should be very high on our list. Cody Mauch, Bergeron, Darnell Wright. The fact is if one of Sewell or Decker go down long-term, we’re screwed. That’s exactly what happened to the Jets this year and they couldn’t overcome it.
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I really want the RG at 18 from Florida. I know that is overkill for the OLine, but the power element is the one thing I feel like we were missing last year. It’d be awesome to add that to this line. Maybe they re-work Vaitai…
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I don’t count them out, I see good things but man a lot of them need work. I don’t know much about Van Ness. He wasn’t even a starter. Wilson wasn’t exactly super productive. Murphy can’t defend the run he gets pushed off the ball. None of these guys are high floor they all have risk. Breese is stiff and has injuries. I’m really not enthralled enough to take them top 10.
That is why I think corner is so in play. And also because its a huge huge need.
I think Holmes would prefer to take a safe lineman on either side of the ball in most cases like this but we don’t need tackle on offense the whole point of taking a lineman is its safe and I don’t see that safety past Anderson and Carter
Any good wide receiver that isn’t on a rookie deal is going to cost 16-25 million in free agency and we needed a wide receiver as bad as many defensive position.
The absolute best running backs in the league max out at 15ish million
From just an opportunity cost standpoint it made more sense to draft a wide receiver even one like Jamo over any running back in the 1st
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I jave done the research. Nothing about the draft and success rates is news to me. Its definitely more than 0. But its a dumb discussion when someone is hell bent on maintaining a certain view and will just move the goalposts until it fits. Thats how we have gotten into weird conversations about a guy having to win a Super Bowl to be deemed a good pick. And then that evolves into a strange side conversation about the guy having to be THE REASON they won a Super Bowl and we dissect how the guy played in each game and moment of each game.
Now this is an interesting idea. Also an idea I could get behind, it makes sense
Then please state your case
It’s not that, it’s that spending less valuable assets on a RB gives you more to spend elsewhere, and that could be the difference between winning it all or getting knocked out early.
I’ve posted the list of Super Bowl winning RB starters going back to the start of the century, it’s a ghastly list. That’s a big enough sample size IMO to say there’s something to it. Marshawn Lynch is the only guy you’d classify as a star, and he didn’t even make it with the team that drafted him.
He said there hasn’t been a single successful 1st round pick at RB since Adrian Peterson. That is an entirely different discussion than everyone else is having.
This is the dumb discussion we need to avoid. This means Barry Sanders was a bad pick.
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Alright then
My argument is that almost zero rb’s are ever worth a 1st rd pick. AD was. Barry was obviously as well. One could argue that AD was a generation ago and Barry was a generation before that. I’m saying that it is the riskiest pick by position that you could possibly make in the 1st round. I know Brad takes risks. But so far has taken them within the context of positional value. I would love to see him running behind our line. Hell i would double down and take Torrence from Florida at 18 if i took bijan at 6. But i think the team is better long term if we go defense first. I would prefer using a 2nd rd OG and either the other 2nd or our 3rd on RB. But i also rather have the draft fall to me and take bpa considering positional value. Yes, you almost always take the elite player over need. But bpa with positional value consideration builds the better team over time regardless of coaching strategy.
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