Sounds like you understand my position pretty well. Yes, I would add to the OL if the draft fell that way.
I think you abandon a true BPA strategy (a) when you feel there are no unicorns, and (b) when the talent/rating gap is pretty small between the true BPA and the best player available at your position of need.
Unicorns by definition are in the extreme tail of a bell curve. So unicorns probably only happen at the very highest draft positions…say, 1OA to 3 or 4OA.
If the staff felt that Neal is a unicorn, you draft him even with Decker and Penei, you draft him and we find room for Decker, Sewell and Neal. I think this staff has the creativity to do that. (Remember Decker is now a TE/OL hybrid … LOL). It turns your OL into a huge strength if the staff can find ways. Or you find a way to trade Decker and get more resources. (Or you get a huge return for trading 2OA). I think others have said this differently, but it has to do with the talent gap between the BPA and the next player. Similar to what Dallas did with CD Lamb.
Having said all that, I don’t think it will happen at 2OA this year.
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Yes, if there’s a unicorn available, you need to draft him.
I never understand why fans have such a hard time with this.
BPA and needs go hand it hand.
Teams always take the BPA on their board. Their board is ranked off a needs base.
Players that are less of a need are always down graded or taken off their board completely.
The Lions are in dire need of difference makers at all levels so they won’t pass on one if one is on the board no matter the position.
Need when? This year, next year or the year after?
Are we looking at a team’s roster and assuming present-day needs are going to be filled with rookies adequately?
Are we assuming all the other players on the roster are going to avoid injury? (Okudah, Okwarah anyone?)
I think you’re on pretty thin ice with that thought. I’ve heard Polian, Lombardi and Casserly have these conversations far too often to side with your take on this. Lombardi has often talked about GMs bankrupting their rosters and undermining their own efforts by letting need rule over talent.
Every time you hear a GM explain need vs BPA they explain it just as I stated.
Teams base their boards off of need vs BPA. They downgrade players who do not fit a need or take them off their boards completely. Their board is always needs based. If it wasn’t just about every teams board would look the same. Truth is that every teams board is very different based off their individual needs.
Yet you hear nearly every team say we take BPA. Or he was the best player available still on our board.
All BPA really means is that your not reaching to fill a a major need. Yet teams still do this every year. Mostly at QB.
Scouts, insider info, scheme and various other grading methods result in boards being completely different.
If you gave every team 32 players from this year’s draft and told them to rank the top ten without consideration of need, do you think you’d get 32 identical top tens? No, you’d probability get 32 different combinations and rankings.
Of course because they all have different grades based on needs, values and things they are looking for.
One team values speed and another value size for example.
To one team the BPA would be the speed guy. To another team it will be a size guy.
Another example is that there are teams who won’t touch an OT with short arms. Etc etc.
BPA is based off a teams board which is based off that teams needs and evaluations. If it wasn’t every teams board would be identical.
If I was a NFL GM, I’m never drafting on needs. Fvck that!! I would always take the best football player period…
That’s not a difference of “need” as most conversations around need are had. Those are preferences based on scheme.
Need, as it’s discussed during draft time is strictly “we need a __________ more than we need a _____________ so we should take ______________ with pick 2 or ________________ with pick 32”.
Pick 1. Need always factors in some. Will be interesting to see what Jax does at 1. They have two young 1st round EDGE players. So will they take another, or skip over the 2 best players in the draft?
I said this above for a reason. BPA doesn’t mean what fans think it’s means. It means BPA on that teams board.
Teams rank their board based off their own grades which are based off of need, preferences, scheme, attributes, etc.
So taking BPA is always taking a teams particular need. It means your taking the top guy on that teams board.
That’s how teams like the Lions have a guy like Tavai ranked so highly on their board. Bob Quinn stated he was the BPA. That they had him highly rated in their board. 30 other NFL teams probably had him as a 5th rounder.
Teez Tabor too Bob Q. said he was the BPA on their board. That he scouted Tabor more than any other player he has ever scouted.
Most teams wouldn’t have those two guys as BPA. But the Lions did.
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I think your “need” encompasses conversations we normally have about characteristics, types and fits.
If you go to NFL com’s draft page, and then drill down into each team, it will show you their perceived “team needs”, followed by the positions that need filled or upgraded. That’s what everyone is discussing when they talk about need. It’s “LB” or TE or DL or CB or S without narrowing it down by types or characteristics. It’s not “we need our LB to take on Guards”. That’s a unique characteristic we were looking for under Patricia that has changed under Campbell. Those characteristics cause a prospect to be valued more by one team than by another. Surely certain characteristics are required in certain schemes, but that’s not what anyone discusses as “needs”.
Most teams wouldn’t have them as BPA. And they were right not to. Quinn was a moron with a God complex. Smartest man in the room. Reality proved him to be the dumbest.
I agree with your line of thinking here.
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Using a numerical rating, as an example, it is possible that they have both edges at 98 as well as the OL too. So would they really be taking BPA or drafting for need if they went the OL?
Yes it is need, but he still ranks as the BPA too?
They will have a board regardless. So even if they have them rated at the same number, they’ll still have them ranked 1,2 and 3. This is where it will make sense for Jax (depending on what they think of Chaisson’s potential) to go OT if they have him ranked “close” to the EDGE guys.
Those are just two examples of what I’m talking about.
Some teams won’t take a CB who is under a certain speed or an OT who’s under a certain size or arm length. Or a QB - WR under a certain hand length. Every team has a grading process and some attributes are more valued to one team over another. BPA is the highest graded player on the teams board based on needs, fit, scheme, attributes etc etc.
That’s why GM’s always say they took the highest rated player on their board.
Needs and fit were a factor in making the grade that ranked that player on the board.
Teams draft for need and take the BPA on their own board.
Unless their Matt Millen. He seemed to use Mel Kipers big board and went with BPA on that regardless of fit or need.
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Exactly but they build that board off their needs, value, scheme and fit.
For example a team has the following players all rated at a 90.5 grade.
CB1 - A man cover corner.
CB2 - A zone cover corner.
QB
TE
P
3-4 style NT
DT
They then have a WR, RB, LB and S with a 89.9 grade.
The team has a young Probowl quarterback so QB is off their board completely.
They play zone coverages so the man cover corner is off their board or downgraded heavily.
They don’t believe in drafting a TE before pick 33.
They won’t draft a P before round 7
They don’t run a 3-4 so NT has no value to them.
CB2, and DT are the highest rated players on their board but both are gone.
Who do they draft?
It’s not the TE, QB, P, CB1 or NT even though those would be the BPA based on grades.
It the highest rated guy left based on need, value, and fit.
GM - takes the WR and tells the press he was the highest rated guy on their board and he believes in taking the BPA.
Was he really the BPA?
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Need always factors into the BPA. The Jags aren’t looking for a QB and the Lions aren’t drafting a LT. If Jordan Davis was a game wrecker like Suh was neither of the guys we drafted last year would prevent a pick like that because their not that guy.