BOOMS….. BUSTS…… UNDECIDED (Help)

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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With the NFL Draft less than a week away, here is what we know. There are 4-5 teams that could clearly use a QB (Carolina, Atlanta, Seattle, Pitt, NO), but it’s a pretty darn weak QB class…. It’s possible that each of these teams would rather let “A” guy fall to them at their current pick, than trade up for “THE” guy, as there may not prove to be a single top 24 NFL starter anyway.

Then we have the top 2 most intriguing WRs and the presumed most dynamic CB unable to workout out. If Stingley put on a Patrick Peterson like display, or London ran a 4.49, or Williams ran a 4.32 with a 40” vertical, then we might well have 3 guys secured in the top 10….

The biggest challenge of this draft is that there are so many flavors, but nothing jumps out as generational… Garrett, Lawrence, Suh, Calvin, Ramsey….

We have 3 picks in the top 34, and right now I’d rather be drafting around #7…#26…#34 .#36 .#97, but that’s depends on the Giants, Atlanta, or Seahawks

BOOMS-

  1. Icky- I don’t see a way he’s not a Q Nelson level OG, or a top 5-7 OT…. A more physical R Slater

  2. D Lloyd- still my favorite player in the draft! As many sacks as Thibz, more interceptions than Sauce, more tackles than Dean…. Then came the combine that equated 9.3 RAS! I see a Fred Warner, but with more pass rush. He’s the leader we need on D

  3. B Hall- MJD and company were discussing that this kid is the perfect RB prospect. People don’t see his speed on tape, because they are looking closely. He’s effortless. No pumping, and straining, he’s gliding, but gliding farther away from DBs. Production, size, 4.3 speed, NBA vertical, proven hands and routes, nose for endzone, and I like how MJD mentioned him “setting up defenders…” the start stop, dead leg, and open field spin avoid tackles and contact. He reminds me a lot of Taylor, but without that Wisconsin OL

  4. Sauce- what else is there to say? If he was a half tick faster, he may have been in the convo for #1 or #2. He has the height, the tape, the right attitude, and college ball production are amazing. He’s more a T White than a Ramsey or a P Peterson.

  5. Hutch- it’s not that I don’t like him. He might even be the guy at an elite position of value who has the highest floor while still having a crazy high ceiling. I wish he was 6’5 and 265” instead of 6’7” and 260, and we all know about those 32” arms. My only fear is that he relies on instincts and plays with his hair on to get his numbers. His ceiling is TJ Watt who shows patience, diagnoses the play like a pro bowl MLB, then goes. I see a TJ ceiling, and a Maxx Crosby like floor?

  6. Z Johnson- I love this kid. His bench video was impressive. His charisma reminds me of M Willis. He loves his family, his coaches, his teammates, life, but he’s mean on the field. He volunteered to switch positions when needed to gain better perspective of what his teammates faced at their spot, and thus he could help more mid play??? Seriously-

  7. E Neal- it’s hard not to like him. It’s hard not to see Tyron Smith. I think he’s an elite RT, who could be an elite LT too.

  8. T Jones- watch his senior bowl week. Then his combine, then look at his stats. I see a guy who is 6’4” 335 that moves better than Fletcher Cox, Chris Jones or Jeffrey Simmons…. For those who think he’s just a NT, look at his production compared to Chris Jones, Derrick Brown, Fletcher Cox…just because he’s massive and strong, his 40 time and shuttle were crazy too!

  9. T Burks- pretty funny that the new mock trade is Deebo to the Chiefs and 49ers take Burks, get another pick, and save 24M per year? I am on team Burks plus 24M please. He had nobody throwing to him. He runs sweeps, plays inside, blocks, breaks tackles and has Shaq sized hands!

  10. B Mafe- I heard Tucker say- “just show me the guys 10 best plays, and it stuck.” His highlights look like Thibz. He wins early, he finishes violent. He’s probably the most nfl ready body at edge in the draft. His RAS is 10!!! 6’4 261 and strong with 4.5 speed and 38” vertical? He also plays for the sack fumble, not just the sack- watch senior bowl highlights…
    boye mafe highlights - Google Search

  11. Nik Bonitto- his bend is tops in the draft. He’s so naturally fluid, and he’s not rocked up yet, so I think he has some ability to add 10 pounds without slowing down. His 9.31 RAS is driven by a 4.5 forty, 1.53 10 yd, and a crazy 4.23 shuttle. I think he’d fit perfectly in a 60% snap share at edge for us. Just a tick under Mafe.

  12. J Dotson- one of the few WRs in this class that I’m positive in what I’m getting. He’s got too 1-2 hands in the class, he has great subtle moves in his go routes that get defenders leaning or drifting. Reminds me of Diontae Johnson with better hands. He’s the guys that despite his size will be open on 3rd and goal from the 8 yard line.

  13. C Muma- he’s my consolation prize after D Lloyd. He should be higher on this list. He will be somebody captain and a 10 year starter with a pro bowl or 3 in there…

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BUSTS-

  1. K Pickett- I just don’t see it. In a draft full of small school guys, smurfs, and modest QB production, this is the one guy who looks the part. However his baby hands would be 2nd smallest on modern history behind Vick…. It also took 5 years against modest competition to have a good year. His 3rd and 4th years were low completion, bad ypa, and bad TD/Int ratio.

  2. J Davis- 3 red flags… 1- lack of production at his size and athletic profile. 2- was pushed into football, not in love with it… 3- in an interview he stated his favorite food was OREOS!

  3. Stingley- he may be a hall of famer. He could also be a guy who never plays 17 games. His freshman tape was elite, but his sophomore and junior tape is bad or non existent. This is literally hoping a guy can get healthy, stay healthy, and regain the form we saw from him 2 years ago.

  4. I Spiller- I know it’s a lower round pick, but if he really goes late 2…? I don’t see any elite movement, and his 5.7 RAS supports that.

  5. M Willis- I know the hate is coming on this one. I love the kid, I love the arm, and I even like the deep ball placement. He was a big strong kid running on inferior athletes, and yet rarely breaking 30-40 yard runs. That supposed 4.3 speed I can’t find on tape consistently. I see him run through some tackles and go from 4-6 yards, but why are guys getting their hands on him so easily? I don’t see the Lamar, or even Mahomes shake, wiggle, pump fake…. I think had Willis played in the SEC we would be looking a a kid who threw for 2,500 yards, more picks, and less rushing yards.

  6. D Wyatt- between the production not matching the athletic profile, the 24 years old, and the off field stuff that may or may not be proven true, I’m out!

  7. C Cross- I could be really wrong here, but he walks a fine line between sticky and holding. I think his long light frame will be challenged when guys across from him are A Donald or Nick Bosa. His waiting for Pro Day to bench, then doing just 20 reps validates my strength concerns. A late one- early 2 guy? Sure I could see the potential, but not a day one starter and stud in the top 10…

  8. N Dean- another example of one big year, but not even that big… Tons of NFL talent around him keeping him clean, and then combing the validated size concerns and compounding them without working out…. If he tested like Shazier maybe, but right now we are calling him a little missile, but we don’t know if he is even a fast missile. It’s easy to fly to the ball when no 300 pound men are latching on. Feels to much like Ernie Sims to me.

  9. C Watson- I am gonna get killed for this one too, but I can’t take a 4 year player from a small school and limited production. Forget about average, what about 800 yards against nobody’s in a Calvin Johnson light- body? Calvin had Reggie Ball throw for 1800 yards and he still got his 1200!! To take him over great DT, LB, S, Edge prospects in hopes he our WR1? Can’t do it. Take a look at DJ Chark jr sec production, then compare their RAS scores…almost same size, same production, same RAS… kind of redundant.

  10. J Johnson- I wanted to want him because I didn’t think Hutch would fall, I can’t make myself like Thibz, then he ran 4.58 and we all said… sure he will be there and seems safe. His age- 24, lack of bend, pass rush win rate scare me. If we were talking about trading up to #23 or taking him at #32- all day. But to avoid even a poor value trade down, then reach for a guy with some limitation to his ceiling at #2, I’d be sad…. Support him, hope, but be sad.

  11. A Boothe- I saw too much gamble on film, then the surgery… hard pass

  12. P Winfrey- outside of his 5 sacks… he did little else of note. Seemed washed out, loafing a lot. Sadly kind of reminds me of Levi O- hope not?

  13. Matt Corrall- does he remind anyone else of Johnny Football and Bakers love child?

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MAYBE- Help

I have no idea how I feel about these guys.

  1. London
  2. Hamilton
  3. Olave
  4. T Walker
  5. D Hill
  6. J Williams
  7. L Cine
  8. K Walker
  9. D Leal
  10. A Ebiketie
  11. Ojabo
  12. Howell
  13. Ridder
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Great post!

I really like Dotson and Watson but I think I prefer Dotson because of his outstanding hands. Really low drop percentage just like St. Brown. It would be awesome to have a group of wrs that don’t stall drives with drops.

I also really like Lloyd and have a feeling he could be there at #32.

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my $0.02
Lloyd and Muma - if one of them became a Lion, I’d be a happy man.

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I just can’t get behind this Cross take. He’s an elite pass-blocker, in a league where pass-blocking is by far the most important aspect of playing OL. He’s got long arms for his size but I wouldn’t call his frame overly long (hell his height falls in the 28th percentile), and even the best tackles in the league struggles with Aaron Donald and Nick Bosa. And his functional strength is fine, damn the bench reps. He’ll never be a mauler but you don’t need a mauler. I agree with Doug Farrar’s take, he’s basically David Bakhtiari 2.0, same size, very similar testing:

NFL Comparison: David Bakhtiari. Like Bakhtiari, the Packers’ three-time Pro Bowler and two-time First-Team All-Pro, Cross tends to make everything look easier than it really is with an NFL-ready quiver of skills. If your offense is pass-heavy with concepts from RPO to all-go, and you need a tackle to get freaky in space when it’s time to run the ball as an ancillary idea, there’s no better option in this draft class.

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8-5 W/L 2021
2,800+ yards passing
878 yards rushing
Please, someone tell me it’s a team sport.

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Boom - everyone the lions draft

Bust - the entire rest of the league and draft class, except for a handful we can sign as FA in a few years

That’s my grand vision :wink:

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You are definitely one of the more knowledgeable posters regarding the draft, so I have no reason to challenge your opinion.

I will say that I saw two guys in tank tops that didn’t look like the others at the combine. Hutch… and Cross…

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Neither look like they are very strong men standing still. So when Hutch had his strength guy rowing every rep with him, and Cross did just 20 at his pro day after skipping the combine…

I’m just connecting what I see on film, what I see in a tank top, and what the numbers say. I get that bench press isn’t a definable metric, but it’s not irrelevant.

Guys like Nick, JJ Watt, Aaron Donald, Myles Garrett, Patrick Willis, Luke Keuchly, dominated the bench numbers…. All like like heavy weight cage fighters, and their strength shows up.

For the record Baktiari (who looks and plus nasty) put up 28 reps at his combine, and that didn’t surprise one bit.

Breece Hall put up 25 reps at 217 pounds. Cephus put up 23 reps as a WR at 210.

This is a wayyy to long winded way of saying I think he’s a bit grabby on tape now, and I think it’s because he doesn’t have the initial shock in his hands.

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Yes it is.

Devonta Smith probably can’t bench 225 once and he’s the best CFB WR of all time.

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I get that. I’m saying when we are typically projecting a small school guy, it’s usually his off the charts measureables, and video game stats we are projecting success from.

Willis might have run for 878 yards, but he was grinding a lot of that out. He broke a ton of tackles, dragged defenders etc.

I truly think whoever it was that threw out Tyrod as a comp was spot on. Great leader. Big arm. Thick frame. Runs more like a RB than a QB. Willis deals with far to much contact for my liking. If he truly has 4.3 speed, and nfl level instincts, he should be jump cutting and breaking 60 yard runs.

A QB leading FBS in yards after contact is not a great stat. Especially not with just 878 yards rushing. That means he only had about 2 yards before contact and was still making the decision to run?

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I feel like you go out of your way to challenge anything I say, and often do so in a sarcastic question, or a five word response.

First off- I have no idea why Devonta Smith and Charles Cross strike you as similar situations, and secondly… I’m pretty sure we are all talking about the NFL DRAFT brother???

A) I am not saying with certainty that Cross will fail, but unless he gets serious about the weight room, I think he will struggle with NFL size and power.

B) I don’t know why a 165 pound WR who job is to avoid contact is being compared to a 300 pound man whose job is to “lock on and press another 300 pound man backward???”

C) I don’t know why a guys college success is being used to project another man, at an entirely different positions pro success

I watched the highlights, he appears to me to be less powerful than other elite prospects, and while he’s not allowing sacks, he does appear to be a bit grabby.

Bailey Zappe likely can’t do 5 reps either, and it clearly didn’t stop him from throwing 60 plus TDs, but since his position requires elite arm strength, and he does t have it, he’s not going to be drafted high.

LT requires enough power to bully another big strong man. If bench didn’t matter, they wouldn’t measure it. I would never say- Raihmann should go #1 because he did 32 reps…

Sewell- 30 reps
Slater- 33 reps

Evan Neal- register a 475 pound bench at Bama with a 650 pound squat, and his max would equate to about 32-36 reps.

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Willis is nowhere near the runner of Lamar or Murray.

Last year against Army, UL, UNT, MISS, and SYR he had a combined 93 carries for 193 yards for an average of 2.07 ypc.

Sure he racked up a bunch of numbers against weak competition but looked pretty average against better competition.

He had a nice 67 yard td run against Auburn but it was a garbage td. It was in the 4th quarter of a blow out.

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First off I’m not intending to ever come off this way. You and I just disagree on how we view a certain number of things, and given that this is a discussion board, I am voicing my opinion just like you voice yours to create discussion. There is absolutely nothing wrong with disagreement, and I am never trying to directly argue with whatever position you take. I really do appreciate the thought and insight you put into your posts, and I enjoy reading what you have to say.

Again, in the future, if this is how I am coming off, then I’ll do better to not be like that.

Ah, I see why you’re taking the position you are. The bench doesn’t matter for lineman because the drive with which you use to push someone back actually comes from your legs and hips. The arms and chest are ideally irrelevant. Now in pass protection, you use your chest more, but you aren’t supported by a bench and you aren’t pressing directly against gravity. A landmine press is a far more realistic exercise to simulate the press of pass pro.

Again, I should have clarified. I’m not saying Devonta not pressing 225 is going to mean Cross will be successful. The two are completely independent of each other. I’m saying that a good or bad bench does not translate directly to success.

Now usually your gym rats who squat 700 pounds also spend a lot of time benching and can bench a lot too. That 700 lb squat is a lot more valuable though, and that’s what translates.

I disagree. They do it at the combine because it’s a “sexy” event that gets a lot of viewers for the combine. Not because it helps the teams. The teams get info from the colleges about the weight room performances to judge how strong someone is, I’d assume.

I’ve suggested this on here before. The bench needs to be replaced with a 315 lb squat. Same as the bench. How many reps can you get?

But… we put a tracker on the bar to measure the speed at which the player moves the bar. Then, adding the weight, a simple calculation tells you how many watts of power a player is putting into the bar. Teams can measure how much maximum power are they getting from someone, and how quickly or slowly does this guy fatigue?

My friend who is a strength coach at a high school here in Huntsville has purchased several of these chips and uses them for his players. They give a lot of useful information and can better prepare coaches for games.

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I put very little stock into the bench. It’s a very specific test for a very specific type of strength. There’s so much more to strength on the move, standing, bent over, off-balance, etc… that the bench doesn’t test. As long as you aren’t an extreme outlier, it’s fine. I could compose a list of guys who thrived in the league despite poor bench numbers, but just at a glance, it’s way too long.

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Winfrey looked like the best player on the field during the senior bowl. That may have left a more positive impression on our coaches than his full body of work

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I think Mafe could have been in the discussion, and over the week Travis Jones was an animal.

Winfrey has all the tools, and he knows he was auditioning to be a millionaire.

He’s got heavy hands, twitch, and instincts to weave into the backfield. He also tends to take a lot of plays off from what I’ve seen.

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I’m not a fan of drafting Willis.
The second tier competition he has faced up to now, is nothing close to what he will face in the NFL.
Keep him contained and he’s going to get hurt.
I’ll root for him if he’s a Lion, but, I rooted for Chuck Long and Andre Ware, too.

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I’d like Natty to weigh in as I would presume BigNatty stands for beastly natural body builder?

I’d matters zero whether the bench press movement is correlated to NFL blocking technique.

These are young men who lift weights. Period!

They box squat, bench, curl, run, do medicine ball work, kettle bells, shrug, and do military press. They do all of it.

It’s not coincidental that guys who look like Bosa, Garrett and Donald wreck games.

This seems like a silly conversation. Really strong guys are often better at football, than weak lazy ones.

There is a difference between moving a guy up the board because of his bench- NEVER DO THAT- and dropping a guy because he’s not strong enough to handle guys like Suh, Donald, Etc.

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Mafe was in the discussion and should have been. Winfrey was apparently dominating all week as well. I’d love to have either of those cats rotating in on the line