Can someone explain the Tampa 2-point conversion?

[REMRebound]

@JD9

It’s another example of how dumb analytics can be. A 2pt conversion is converted slighty above 50% of the time. So in theory (which using theory during a sporting event with so many other variables is asinine) you will get a 2pt conversion at least 50% of the time. If the conversion rate for 2pt conversions were 49%, analytics would say it’s dumb to go for two.

Yeah, IMO this is an area where smart coaches are outsmarting themselves. In a pure hypothetical state, the math works out the way people are explaining here to favor an earlier 2-pt attempt. BUT FOOTBALL IS NOT PLAYED IN A PURE HYPOTHETICAL STATE. There are many other factors this math doesn’t account for. For instance: Not all 2-pt playcalls are created equal!

I saw this from a former player on Twitter (can’t claim I thought of it), but most teams have ONE 2-pt play that they’ve practiced and feel good about, and one or two more in their back pocket that they can pull out if needed, but that they’ve practiced less and are less confident in. That 52% success rate is across all 2-pt attempts by all teams. If you measured success rates for a single team attempting multiple 2-point tries in a game, I suspect the success rate goes down with each attempt.

[socko]

Sex Panther cologne… 60% of the time, it works every time. Illegal in 9 countries.

[starman91]

The two attempts for 2 would be independent events.

I would like to see two point conversion rate from 2 yard line and remove all from 1 yard line because of penalty.

We also need larger n of 2 point conversions to get truer percentage. For xp there is a large n that i believe that percentage more.

Also per NYT:

About 47.5 percent of the time since 2015 — almost exactly half that of the extra-point conversion rate.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/13/upshot/nfl-playoffs-2-point-conversion.html

[Wattage4451]

Its like how the lions went forn2 in the cowboy game- they are going for the win imstead of playing for a tie in overtime. If you wish to go for win- it is smarter to go for 2 the fiest time rather than waiting for 2nd touchdown- because the chances of you missing both 2 point conversions is much lower than missing one. So if you makenthe 2 point conversion- you can then go for extra point and win next touchdown- butnif you miss 1 point convwrsion- then you still have chance to tie game on next touch down by going for 2 again.

Now lets say instead of going for 2 after first touchdown you make kick to makenitn6 point game- the mext drive you decidento go for win put miss 2 point conversion- you now are done.

Its better to go for 2 the first time because odds are greater rhat you wont miss it twice.

[espnbaby]

Because lions offense is best in the town , biggest show on the turf

[starman91]

Welcome to the board.

The odds of missing the second time are the same as the first. The two events are independent.

The other issue with conversion rate for 2 point conversion is there is a smaller n. As you get more n you would get a truer conversion percentage chance. Also many teams go for 2 now if there is a penalty moving it from 2 to 1 yard line and those have to be taken out of calculations.

[JimInTN]

Who said anything about two attempts?

[starman91]

55%x2 is not greater than 95% in statistics

[JimInTN]

Yes it is. 55% of 2 points is greater than 95% of 1 point.

[starman91]

Your data is off though. It is under 50%. I have cited NYT article and I will assume they are correct.

And independent events. Nothing additive about it.

Playing 1 draw of lotto tickets every drawing your chance of win stays the same.

Chance of a heads on all flips is 50%. The coin does not care if it has been flipped 2 times or 200.

Also a lot has to go into these statistics. Road vs home. Crowd noise. Etc. It is not as straightforward as an xp which rarely affected by noise. And xp attempt indoors probably has higher conversion percentage.

[JimInTN]

Don’t know what you are talking about and not sure you do either. If you are responding to me, I’m not adding Jack.

If you have a choice to attempt 2 points and have a 55% (52% or whatever above 50%) chance of success

OR

You can attempt a 1 point play and have a 95% chance of success

THEN

The first choice, STATISTICALLY, is a better choice EVERY/EACH time.

[LineBusy]

I’ve to learned to neither ask nor answer these types of questions.

[JimInTN]

Would you rather have 55% of 2 pies (points) or 95% of one pie (point)?

[starman91]

You have 100000000 and 95% chance of winning or
100000000 and 47.5% (lets use accurate percentage). But you have 2 chances with 47.5% which do you take?

I can ask questions also.

On independent events I take 95% unless score dictates otherwise.

[starman91]

One pie. Because next time I score I can also get 1 pie again. I am not done scoring. If that is my last score the also does not matter getting 2 pies when the other team has 6 more.

[starman91]

But just an FYI on getting two two point conversions in a row as to your question why do coaches not go for 2 every time for independent events.

Assume conversion percentage chance of 50 for 2 points

Assume 95% for XP.

If there is 1 TD:
50% chance of getting 2 points
If 2 TDs scored:
Chance of converting both is 1/2*1/2=.25, 25%

If 3 TDs:
1/21/21/2= 1/8=12.5%

If going for xp
1 TD=95%
2 TDs= (.95*.95)= 90.25%
3TDs=(.95)^3= 86%

You are talking miniscule point difference scale.

[Jman]

Point being missed here that I think factors into it…

Offenses are forced to play differently if they aren’t up a TD under 4 minutes.

If they know that they have to punt and a TD can beat them…makes it more difficult on the offense in the 4min drill

It comes down to not only
Math, but dictating the game

[starman91]

That I can buy. But in isolated world going for 2 every time is silly.

[Mr.Peabody]

What we learned in this thread is that sometimes the math is not mathing.

[Slay]

When you crunch the numbers, it gives them the best chance of winning the game. It’s pretty simple although the math isn’t.