Myles Murphy is 1.5 years younger than Wilson. That’s prerry important to me. Murphy played all of last year at 20 years old. When Wilson was 20 he wasn’t even starting for A&M leading to his transfer out. Wilson has more length and power but Murphy is a much better athlete. Or at least that’s my belief. We’ll see.
I’m a massive pedigree guy. That he was thought of as a profound talent since he was like 14/15 years old is probably more important to me then it should be.
That being said I don’t love him at 6.
I think Van Ness joins that tier by draft day, whether he deserves to or not. This year’s Travon Walker. He’s got basically the same build as Murphy and should test just as well, and he’s got better play strength IMO. Not to Wilson’s level but not far off. And he’s young af as well. I’m not advocating him at our spot, but I think he’ll go around the other two.
I guess that math isn’t your strong point.
Dozens of draft picks change hands every draft and there are only 260 or so picks so I’d guess the number of picks that get traded in one fashion or another is somewhere north of 10%. Last year in just the first round you had 18 of the 32 picks were made by a team other than the one slotted there.
But individually, on a team-by-team basis, it’s astronomically low. I did this earlier but the Lions had traded down something like 2 of their last 42 1st round picks. So yeah, it’s not 1%, but it’s under 5%. And if you go down each team, some do it a little more, some a little less. But as a team, the odds of trading down are very, very low.
I strongly prefer Murphy out of those three but that’s just me
Though I don’t love Edge at 6 when we can probably add a Felix Anudike/Derek Hall/Byron Young type in round 2.
I think you’re definitely swayed a little by pedigree lol. Saying that even though I have Murphy as my least favorite option of those three, they’re very close. It’s a tier, and I’d be fine with any from that tier. I don’t really want to go edge there either, but I’d get it. I love Hall in the 2nd, I think Brad & Co are gonna love him too.
I’m hoping we don’t go DT at all in the 1st. We have multiple D-line guys that would start on other teams. I question whether either of our LB’s start for most teams and we definitely have a severe deficiency at the CB position.
Over the course of the last decade, an average of 6 trades involving 1st round picks have happened on draft night or leading up to draft night.
So simplifying it, that’s an average of 19% of 1st round picks traded leading up to, or on draft night.
So trades aren’t as unlikely as some like to believe it is. I see nothing wrong with people wanting or predicting trades in their mock drafts. If some have a problem with it, just ignore it and move on
Shit, really!? I would have never guessed that, I would have went more like 5%, interesting.
How many by team? Because that’s what we’re talking about, how likely is it the Lions trade down, not how many trade-downs there will be overall.
Well it’s kind of silly to make a blanket statement like, “the lions have only traded down two times in the history of the 1st round.” Different people are running the show. The guys who made the decisions to trade down are no longer here. So what’s been done in the past under different management in Detroit is irrelevant.
What we do know is this current group has made a 1st round draft trade in two years. So in two drafts, they have traded once. I say the Lions are one of the more likely teams to make a 1st round trade based on what they’ve done previously.
I agree that different FOs make different decisions, this is just about the historical odds of trading down. For us specifically, over the past 40-some-odd years (I forgot how far back I looked), we’ve done it twice. Which is less than 5% of the time. Trading up is a different discussion, we’ve done that a lot more often but you don’t often see anyone here wanting to do it again.
Look, I’d love to trade down. That’s almost always my favorite option. I just think we need to be realistic about it. If you were putting a lot of money on one of those “guess our picks” contest, would you include trade-downs? Of course not, because the odds of it happening are slim.
Why do we need to be realistic? If the board had a round 1 mock the winner would hit 6/7 picks correctly. Everyone has fun diving deep into the draft and playing GM. Does it really matter if what someone wants or predicts doesn’t match up with someone else’s? The draft is an unpredictable thing. And trading down means more beans! Trading up usually means less beans. Of course it’s more popular for people to want and suggest moving down. They can get more of the guys they like.
It all doesn’t really matter anyways. Some like making 100 predictions so the can say I told you so once. It’s all just an exercise in being a fan. I do a mock every year with multiple trades…it’s fun to see if you lineup with a franchises direction. It’s nothing more, nothing less
All for BPA at #6. Also love a trade down.
Trust in Holmes…
I can maybe go along with most of what you said but a year an half give me a break that is just BS since i have seen you like players who were older an some of your QB likes are buried on benches.
Don’t make up BS reasons I mean if you disagree fine disagree on football play not Petigree.
I am leaning also towards the RB then a CB
But i would have no problem with Wilson. I look at age when its 30 not 20 or 21
BS? Whatever, Yote. Disappointing that you couldn’t muster a bit more civility but C’est la vie. I don’t dislike Wilson as a player and there are countless players that I like that are 22 and 23 years old. That being said, if two guys are on a similar level and produced similarly then for me at least it’s a big deal that one did so at 20 and the other at 22.
No, you’re right. And I love to make a bunch of trades on the mocks too, the whole thing is fun. Like I said it’s always my preference to trade down.
But the board is for discussing opinions, and when we post our views we’re doing so in search of feedback. When someone says with confidence that if their guy isn’t there they trade down, I express my opinion that no, you probably don’t. It’s no different than saying I don’t like Will Levis, or don’t want to draft Robinson.
The year we had also gives Brad the security to take more assets next year if that’s what it takes to love back.
Yeah I’d almost rather do that personally. It gives you the ability to really control drafts, and if it’s not one you want to control you just kick it down the road a year. Like this year’s is a down draft, maybe next year’s will be better.