I feel like they’ve been too transparent. It’s part of who they are though… players love their honesty. But it’s going to hurt our trade offers a bit. All they had to do was send the same contingent to Malik Willis’ pro day that went to thibideux’s. After Oregon’s pro day all the mocks switched back to us drafting him… and Vegas odds changed. They should have done the same thing with Willis to make some teams sweat.
Didn’t they have some time with Willis at the senior bowl?
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They did. So they probably have a good idea about his personality and such. But the pro day is more about perception. They need to create the perception that they are considering Willis if they want to take a trade. You can do that by avoiding stupid statements about having a QB from your team president. Or you can show up in full to every QB event.
Everything I’m seeing the analysts have no idea what the Lions are doing. And a few mock drafts have Willis going to Detroit. Don’t see any issues with Holmes……other than winning only 3 games last year. But I can’t put all of that on him.
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Only I understand the master plan. 
I disagree with the idea of feigning interest in Willis to generate trade down opportunity. Our perceived interest in Willis would generate trade opportunity for Jacksonville, not us. You trade ahead of the first threat to your guy, not to it. If the Lions really want willis, then they would demand a ransom for the pick. Jags would be more willing in that case.
It’s mostly the Texans that will determine what offers we get. If teams fear they’ll take the guy they want, they’ll trade with us to prevent it. If they want to trade ahead of a different team, they’ll call the Texans first, because the value is better than trading with us(in theory).
The high value positions have two to three guys of similar value available, so trades will likely fall after our spot. Willis is the prohibitive favorite for a trade up target, and the Giants are the first probability for taking him(if the Lions don’t). That means that picks 4 and 3 are ideal targets for trade up. If the jets and Houston aren’t in a trading mood, or demand too much, the option comes to us.
I think there’s a significant probability that the Lions take Willis, and a predictable future where if we don’t… we are stuck trading away major assets to acquire a better qb. The Lions brass can see this, and will try to prevent that future outlay. The possibility I see would be trading down with a top ten team, and taking a projected 2023 top ten pick as part of the compensation. This allows us to continue to build this year and still be in contention for a top qb next year.
If Holmes and company are as good as we hope they are, there’s no way we’re trading into a- Goff succeeds vs we trade away multiple firsts to replace him- type of situation. That’s where we end up if we skip on willis and don’t acquire a high '23 pick in the process. Even then, we’re potentially looking at the third or fourth qb option in a possibly better qb draft, and that player will have Willis sized questions about his game.
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In addition, if the Lions are going to take Willis, having Goff play well this year is still in everyone’s best interest, as Goff could raise his value in a trade to a different team prior to 2023 season.
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let’s assume there are two or three QBs in 2023 that the Lions like in the draft. It’s not going to require significant capital to acquire one. One will probably drop out of the top ten. Remember KC was a 12 win team when they traded up to 10 to get Mahomes. It cost them an extra 3rd and 1st. And two picks later Deshaun Watson had fallen out of the top ten
This concept that we have to spend our number two overall on a QB that in normal years would be a borderline first round pick, or risk getting ‘good’ and have to spend draft capital on a future QB seems a bit alarmist and overly FOMO to me
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That is a good argument, but doesn’t take into account the relative weakness of this draft class, especially at the very highest pick. In this year, pick 2 could equal pick 10 (Mahomes). There is no bonafide pick 2 in this class.
Agree with all of this except the first sentence. I get it too (lol) (as do others) and have posted about it before. If we’re not showing interest in WIllis, the best explanation is that we may want him. Of course, you and I aren’t the only ones that get that. People paid to do this stuff likely get it too. That’s why if someone really wants Willis, they’re trading with Jax, rather than trying to interpret our smoke signals, or lack of them.
The three OT’s at the top of most boards can generate alot of interest too. It makes sense that Houston and the Giants may want one. And if you think Houston wants one, and you have one above the other, the Lions may come into play. It wouldn’t take much for the Giants to move from 5 to 2. We’d probably settle for their second and third. I’d prefer their first next year… though they see the same 2023 QB’s as we do.
I don’t think the Giants have given up on Jones, He’s had some very good streaks, but an awful team around him. Plus he’s been hurt. To me, Carolina is the team that will definately need a QB first, though interestingly Ruhle has a relationship with Pickett rather than Willis.
So many directions this thing could go, but I still think a trade up to 2 is very unlikely. I think the chatter starts just after us – at 4 and 5 because of Carolina.
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I think that where Holmes has to get out there and really work it.
Listen and find out what the offers are to move up to 3 or 4 and decide if it’s acceptable to him at 2. If not, how much more it would take for them to move to 2.
I mean, if the offers are close enough, maybe a couple day 3 picks here or there might get things done. Ammo Holmes can use later to move around.
Spitballing here.
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Only a week, bro. 
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I was alluding to this too - YES to all of it.
If we can’ trade back and get 2023 picks, and we pass on Willis…we are in no position to acquire a top QB, no matter what decision we make.
Ppl act like we can just decide to take a top flight QB and do it…we do NOT have the ammo without a move like this.
Either take Willis, or get future picks…or pray to tiny, baby Jesus we somehow get a qB that works out, because we’re not getting on in the top 5 (which is what we’re talking about here.
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They coached him at the Senior Bowl. Do they really have to send the entire staff to his pro day?
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probably not the entire staff, but I would expect to at least send Brunell. And also expect them to call the Liberty coach
Brunell isn’t a scout and he’s already spent a week coaching him.
There’s due diligence, and then there’s wasting time and money.
Plus, it leaves other teams guessing. ‘Have the Lions seen everything they need to? What was the impression they left with?’
Do you know? I don’t.
Suppose another team really wants Willis and think we’ll take him at #2oa.
This gives plenty of room for the Lions to be playing smoke and mirrors.
Meanwhile, Holmes and Campbell probably made up their minds (on Willis) over a month ago.
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Considering the investment of the second overall pick. I wouldn’t consider sending a coach to interview Willis and the Liberty staff at his pro day a waste of time or money.
Maybe they already have decided to take him?
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Then why the full contingent of coaches to other Pro days and why host Willis, Ekwonu, Walker, Hutch, Thibodeaux….
Speaking of ‘wasting time’
All the evidence points to the Lions not being interested in Willis. Unless it’s the biggest smoke screen in draft run-up history
And if they did decide to take him, one would think that would warrant more of a presence at Pro Day, and sniffing around the coaching staff. Someone on the Thibodeaux thread made the point that seven Lions coaches didn’t go to Eugene to all watch Thibodeaux run the 40 again. They were likely going around and talking to staff, trainers, professors….
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For one “hypothetical” moment… let’s just pretend we know for a fact that not a single QB drafted this year or next will ever win a playoff game…. Then what?
- 2013-2016 4 draft classes of QBs rds 1&2
EJ Manuel
Genius Smith
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
Derek Carr
Jimmy G
Winston
Mariota
—— Goff
Wentz
P Lynch
Hackenberg
That is 4 consecutive years of QB…. Including ours, the most accomplished of the group. Jimmy G, Wentz, and now Carr have awfully large cap hits these days too……
17’
Trubisky
Mahomes
D Watson
18’
Baker
Darnold
J Allen
Rosen
L Jackson
19’
K Murray
D Jones
Haskins
Locke
20’
Burrow
Tua
Herbert
Hurts
21’
Lawrence
Z Wilson
Lance
Fields
M Jones
I will agree the Herbert, Allen, Burrow, Mahomes WOULD BE SUBLIME!!!
-I sure wouldn’t have traded all that for Watson who didn’t ELEVATE the Texans very much. He demanded a new contract, was a malcontent, embarrassed the team.
-I sure wouldn’t be handing 240M over for Murray or Lamar Jackson… look at Lamars passing regression the past 3 years. Murray is certainly not a leader or guy who can elevate franchise.
So there are really like 5-7 guys of the past 34 QB draftees that I would take over Goff.
It’s not just- “take a QB now”. We might not get one next year?… the odds are more favorable we get the next …
If we draft a legit WR and 3 solid defensive starters, then next year we could trade both firsts and a 2024 1st if need be.
I’m not as hype on the next QB class as some.
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