Draft bust cost vs investment in superior product

I posted this elsewhere but

I wish we had a study that quantified how much money the nfl team owners waste on draft picks vs the cost of starting their own professional developmental league ( I guess rookie cap helps even if most know , to the Jaguars Lawrence is already worth more than his rookie contract will be even if he doesn’t perform well )

You’d have to figure in the Ryan leaf jamarcus Russel jersey sales into conversation of worth

But they could still have a draft from
The developmental league.
Many players aren’t graduating from their schools in the 4 years anyways

And a single person to contract would be enough to pay for a degree from a good school

The draft has created its on industry and revenue streams which must be good enough for business , they don’t mind it’s seen as a crap shoot because the pro game is so different from college.

1 Like

Scouting college players is a fraction of the cost it would take to run an entire league.

And college gets to use the players for basically free. Developmental leagues would have to pay them. They’ve got their labor just where they want them.

Yea I don’t doubt this
But I feel like as fans
We’re the ones who suffer
While the players and owners get paid

Think how much better the product could be
If these guys were trained for the next level rather than to win on the college level

Was just reading the USA female gymnastic team horror stories
Thinking in ncaa football
The system would also allow abuse to go in checked at the expense of the youth trusting the adults to make decisions in their best interest.

Would it ?
Insatiable appetite for football could still bring in revenue

And you wouldn’t need the 10,000 of college players / just players more interested in making the nfl vs going to classes …
Maybe just make an nfl trade school and they can charge the athletes …

Could even still have college football like there is baseball and Basketball

That’s why I wish there was a study to quantify the costs

Even if it was just a 4 team development league

Yes. The math has been done and it doesn’t add up, which is why they don’t do it. They will allow someone else to try it and throw a level of support behind it, but thats it.

I’m not really convinced

They don’t do it because they are being fed it for free but they’d also disrupt the NCAA market which needs to support million dollar coaching salaries and their whole pseudo minor league industry

By proxy are collaborative partners

So keeping it cool there , plus not needing to spend the money

You haven’t done any math to show how many millions the owners have wasted on busted salaries. The rookie cap helps mitigate their risk and is quite the gain when the players worth is the same as it was

Lawrence would be worth Stafford’s contract as a rookie when you consider what he’s worth to the franchise before he plays a down

If he plays like Mahommes Lamar or even Staffird as a rookie , he’ll be way under paid.

I think it’s short sighted and given the head injuries and chanted in youth

Imo starting a paid pro league to fairly compensate the athletes for taking the risk and improving the on field talent seem forward thinking

Msybe they’ll help support the Rock’s league.

Two developmental leagues tried to make a go of it this last year. Both failed. The cost is a money pit.

That’s why the NFL uses college football as its minor league.

Keep in mind every attempt at this has failed.
NFL Europa
XFL - Twice
AAF
World Football League
United States Football League
United Football League
Fall Experimental Football League
Continental Football League
All-American Football League
Stars Football League
Arena football leagues
Alliance of American Football

Did I miss any?

The only one that has survived is the CFL and how often do those players make it into the NFL? … almost never. The reason being is they got provisions in place to stop it from happening.

The XFL was the answer and a few players from it managed to find an NFL roster spot. But thanks to the Corona Virus that league is dead too.

You don’t think one of the reasons the other leagues fail is the iron fist of the nil ?

I think their control along with ncaa and following all the money

Keeps them from wanting to try even if it would help the product and

We’ve seen these leagues slso be showing some signs

USFL for example
But then there were owners that didn’t agree on how best to build that league

The Rock is still giving it a go with xfl
And there’s the fan league

Nfl Europe - a different talent pool and néw market that actually did develop at least one hall of famer
Seemed really expensive

Yet far enough away it didn’t disrupt the ncaa

And had they done that in states
I think there would’ve been more fan interest than in Europe

Also

No one had attempted to quantify how much money the owners waste on this current system … or do they waste it ?

I’m
Of opinion on business Jamsrvud Russel Ryan Leaf etc

Actually earn their nfl money no matter how they play - and rookie cap provides further protection but isn’t fair to great rookies who also would’ve played like $50mil QB on a rookie cap -

Because the league markets the heck out of the draft - and it creates a whole industry and fan following -what mock draft are we on ? - and markets the heck out of the players before the play a down.

How many tickets did Stafford sell after he was drafted ? And for how how many years ?

Any guess on why you think the owners don’t mind this crap shoot draft investment that costs them millions and often doesn’t work ?

Does it really cost them ?

If we added up all the “bust” contracts
How much money do you think that is ?

Busts are not a money loss to the owners. Your look at it all wrong.

Because of the CBA the NFL owners are sharing their revenue almost 50/50. The cap money is already spent.

A player busting or not doesn’t save or cost the NFL any more or less money. It only effects the product on the field.

Think of it this way … you have to spend $100 dollars a week on gas due to a contractual agreement you’ve made with the gas company who supplies you gas.

Do you buy a gas getter, drive around more and let you car sit in the driveway running until you’ve spent the $100 each week or do you drive a car that burns a lot more gas, and drive around less?

Which car saves you more gas money? … neither because due to your contract obligation gas is now a perishable.

It’s the same for NFL owners. Wether a player busts or not they are still spending the money each year.

Thsts my exact point -

As fans we are the ones that suffer because the Lions guess wrong on so many top prospects hurting our product

Then when lions got it right , the cap hurt our product while Lions ownership collected either way.

I get the system benefits the owners and NCAA and media partners even players

But if the lions could only afford to pay Calvin $80mil for 7 years

Because $26mil was going into development

And lions ownership also made 25% less

Would either get out of the business ?

Meanwhile the system corrupts amateur college student athlete since most of athletes destined for nfl may nor be serious students nor really need college to develop those skills nor the colleges really being serious about making sure the athletes matriculate

While a big time state college coach makes more than any other state employee.

As fans , imo , we are ones who pay the cost

Particularly as Lions fans

Are Lions better without Slay Trufant or Coleman ?

The replacement player has to be at least as good or used better by management.

Dahl got a platform to make the league through college yet his college didn’t train him much in the technique needed as a pro. Dahl probably went to college hoping to make the nfl.

So I agree
There’s plenty reasons why the NFL wouldn’t take this on

But I’m not convinced it’s because they wouldn’t be able to have it at least break even while improving their product.

Not sure how much they care about their product tho when there’s no other game in town. It only compares to itself and if the present optics that make the league focused on parity

It doesn’t matter if there’s still dynasties or if the product is worse than it was or not as good as it truly could be -

I just think as Lions fans our unique collective experience following the Lions should make that clearly evident of how as fans , we pay the cost.

It won’t break even, it will bleed money. Its been proven.

It sounds to me like you are pitching an old NBA style system where kids can jump right from high school into the pros. I have no idea how that is going to help find and develop talent better than the current system. There were a few stars in the NBA that jumped right from high school but there were so many duds that they changed up the system so promising young kids wouldn’t keep throwing their lives away.

This has not be proven imo

The nfl owners have in fact
Never really tried it

This is their system and they’ve resisted most systematic changes like FA which didn’t ruin the league.

There’s only evidence this is how it is

But there’s little evidence on how it could be
Or if a truly backed developmental league would eventually earn more and make the product better

On top of that , there’s still non supported by NFL owners who try snd make a go of it.
Imo the nfl wields it’s power to snuff those out
Due to their current system.

The nba isn’t even a great example
Given they do in fact invest in their own developmental league that hasn’t crushed their ncaa developmental partnership.

Uou also ignore most other pro sports do in fact have their own developmental leagues from baseball hockey basketball

Tough to think a top nba prospect that signs a lucrative nba deal at 18 really threw his life away. Tell Kobe and Lebron they weren’t ready to play nba ball at 18. Or Shaq needed LSU to make the nba -
And the fact he couldn’t go back to a college scholarship once declaring if not drafted works against the athlete not for the athlete.

None of that even touches the corruption from boosters etc that already poison the well some see as pure …

The Lingerie League

Slippery slope will make nfl records meaningless

There have been a laundry list of leagues that have been tried and they all failed. The AAFL was backed by the NFL. The NFL wants some kind of developmental league, but it doesn’t make financial sense to do so. With the AAFL they proved they are willing to “help out” if someone else wants to try to make it work. But they aren’t going to do it themselves, the numbers don’t add up for them. One of the big selling points of the NFL backing the AAFL was that they could develop more than players. It was a chance to develop referees, coaches, training staffs and commentators as well. It just didn’t work out, and it was bleeding money right from the start.

Tracy McGrady and Kevin Garnett are also success stories. They were also chosen in a time where the leap from high school was a big deal and more rare. The NBA changed the rules for entering the draft when kids started increasing the frequency that they made the leap, and more and more kids were failing. The NBA’s new approach has its quirks. Its silly to make someone like Zion Williamson wait a year before entering the NBA if that’s what he wants to do. But the idea is to keep the other 10 kids who swear they are Zion and will fall flat on their face and need some more seasoning from making a bad decision. And of course the clubs from making a bad decision on the kid as well.

This is a meaningless statement unless you are going to try to make a case that the NBA is pure.

I see AAFL had former nfl people
But I can’t find where it had nfl backing

While the aafl set up allowed its talent to move to nfl.

Which kids were ruined by going pro ? Vs how many of those same kids wouldn’t graduate from
College nor do well in the nba ?

At least I feel like I’m acknowledging the assumptions made within my opinion over presenting it like a fact.

Fact is imo
I have not seen the NFL owners invest in a developmental league
Imo that hurts the product
However I have nothing to really compare it to
Since there’s no other comparison

There’s only way the NFL has chosen to do it.

Vs the other leagues , including nba , that have invested in their own development leagues

Rather than trying to squash them as competition.

At least this past season we saw them invest more in the practice squad which conceivably could help the on field product.

They literally had games playing on NFL Network and updates on the action thru NFL.com. The NFL wanted it to work, but they also want someone else to figure out how to make it work before they jump in the deep end. It failed, like usual.

I thought you’d point was this…

Bottom line is this.

From a developmental stand point the cost to develop players via a league is too much. That’s why they have all failed.

That players busting on a teams roster doesn’t cost the owners anything… there’s no additional money wasted when a draft pick busts.

The “like usual” comment doesn’t really acknowledge the nfl not backing other developmental leagues

Or perhaps the mistakes of those who carried the weight of making the decisions for the AAFL

Msybe you’re right

There’s no way for the nfl to develop their own talent in a developmental league that would actually improve the nfl product

While we fans rely on the next lions draft class to make an immediate impact and change lions fortunes
The way one of the greatest draft classes of all time 2013
Helped Detroit become a winner

I just disagree.

I think the nfl business owners could leverage their brand and do it
If they wanted.

It might not pay for itself in first few seasons
And could definitely cause tension with their college partnerships.