Draft Expectations

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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What are your expectations for the 2021 draft picks? The blurb below is what the AVERAGE draft yields based on the 20 year avg. Kudos to MC/Holmes. It looks like we killed it!

“Pro Football Reference has some stats on drafts through the past 20 years. According to their stats the average draft class yields about two players of good quality or above (20.1% probability)… About 1% are Hall of Fame talents.”

2021 draft class- My take barring unforeseen injuries.

*Sewell- Stud, started and played well as a 20 YO!! I expect a gold Jacket! A+
*Levi O- Tough first year, I expect him to gain strength and grow. Early injuries hurt. He should become a regular starter moving forward. C
*Alim- Better than average rookie year! Should develop into a stud. My player comparison is Jerry Ball. A
*Meli- I like his potential, loved his play in last game. INC
*Amon- Need I say anything! A+
*Barnes- It took DeAndre Levy 3 years to learn the position. I love his speed and ability to tackle. I expect him to be a good starter. Good pick for a 4th rounder. B
*J. Jefferson. A 7th rounder with potential. What else can you ask for in round 7.

4 starters in the draft with 2 more becoming starters. I don’t think you can find a draft that meets or beets 6 starter in 7 picks.

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It’s only been one year, so it’s not a full assessment by any means. But, after 1 season, I’d give it a B+ draft. Getting 3 young talents like Sewell, Alim and St. Brown is very encouraging.

If Levi and Iffy develop into solid starters, it could become an A draft in the future.

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I like your take, in fairness, can you find any draft with 7 picks turn into 4 starters? Yes Levi didn’t become a starter until late in the season, but 4 starters in one draft is A+ material.

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The development of Iffy, Levi and Barnes could turn the 2021 draft into a complete home run. Hope it happens. Big offseason for those dudes.

The one really good thing is we got our rookies a lot of game experience this year and that is extremely important. It’s hard to get better without game reps. You gotta take some lumps as a rook to learn.

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I love the draft as well, but that may be a tad bit optimistic. Sewell was a home run and that guy is going to be so much better in year 2. He was the one guy in the draft that i would’ve picked as a future HOF, and he did nothing his rookie year to dispel that notion. Amon Ra was also fantastic and a major home run for Holmes. As far as the rest, we may be getting a little ahead of ourselves.

If we are just basing it off of year 1, Levi does not have the looks of anything more then a future bust. There are a ton of reasons around his struggles, and I personally expect him to get better in year 2 and hopefully develop into a really good player, but that is a optimistic view. Same with Barnes. That guy flashed so much this year, but he also made a lot of silly mistakes. You would hope he gets better, but sometimes they never do (Jarad Davis is a recent example). I wouldn’t count on him as a future starter just yet.

Alim was very mediocre for most of the season, but really progressed in the last month or so. I think his floor is a solid starter with potential to be really really good. As a 3rd rounder I am very happy with where he is at. Melifonwu just didn’t see the field enough. He could just as easilly be out of the league in 3 years or a plus starter. I like his potential for sure, but as of now that is all it is.

Overall after year one, this draft is probably a B+/A- if you consider the UDFA’s.

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I don’t disagree. Let’s assume 1 of the two reaches his potential,(throw in Iffy as well) that’s 4 quality starters in a draft that was light in depth.
Any year a draft develops 4 quality starters with 7 picks warrants an A in my book. Now keep in mind, my book is filled with drafts from the Russ Thomas, Matt Millen, Martin Mayhue years :rofl:

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I’m much more optimistic, regarding Iffy, than most…Sidelined for a few months with a Bad Hammy is not a structurally long-term injury likelihood. He possesses a physical size skill set, few CB’s have. Seems to have a firm desire to succeed. Lots of “Want To”, which you can’t teach. He is only a Rookie. I expect, barring serious injury, a nice jump in performance in 2022. Fingers crossed.

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*Sewell- Stud, started and played well as a 20 YO!! I expect a gold Jacket! A+
Only one thing to add here…for real…possibe GOAT potential, for real. No ceiling. The Jack Fox of OTs

*Levi O- Tough first year, I expect him to gain strength and grow. Early injuries hurt. He should become a regular starter moving forward. C I agree with this…also calling it inconclusive.

*Alim- Better than average rookie year! Should develop into a stud. My player comparison is Jerry Ball. A. Good gawd, I hope you are right. I feel like I don’t have the intel or understanding to evaluate McN or Levi O. I’m most curious to see you guys’ takes on those dudes. I also feel he’s inconclusive.

*Meli- I like his potential, loved his play in last game. INC. While I agree with the Inc grade on him, I believe in this dude more than most of you guys. Steady improvement when not injured. I think he’s gonna be a VERY solid starting CB. I’m really high on him.

*Amon- Need I say anything! A+ Yup! This dude is a no-brainer stud. If Heinz Ward and Golden Tate had a baby, it’d be the SunGod. This dude is different from both of them, and not as good “Heinz” as Heinz was, and not as “Golden” as Tate was, but a nice combination of those skill sets. Wish he was a little bit better with home run speed, but he is who he is…and he is amazing. Thankful to have him.

*Barnes- It took DeAndre Levy 3 years to learn the position. I love his speed and ability to tackle. I expect him to be a good starter. Good pick for a 4th rounder. B
I can definitely see all of this too. He Is inconclusive, IMO, but I like his floor, and can’t wait to see his ceiling. Situational pass rusher? ST guy? Good starter? We’ll find out. Seems like a very solid pick so far, especially given his draft position.

*J. Jefferson. A 7th rounder with potential. What else can you ask for in round 7.
I feel the same. I’m dying for some home run speed, especially at RB position, so I get to temper my expectations, and not hold that against dudes who don’t have HR speed. I think he’s a good pick, given where we got him. I think our staff will always seek to upgrade and create competition. I feel like our trenches will have definitive studs, but positions like WR and RB are always gonna have a lot of “bubble players,” and JJ could be one.

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Love your adds Natty, It’s like we drink the same flavor Kool-Aid.
I prefer to go thru life with the glass over filling! :innocent:

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Wooord!
…and thank you, brother.
Most fun way to live.

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I seem to remember Millens first draft was pretty solid too…

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This has nothing to do with that. Could not be less relevant.

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yeah you’re right. sorry for typing. I’ll go flagellate until I bleed for daring to compare two GMs first drafts

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Nothing to take personal. Just my take. Completely irrelevant to a conversation about this year’s draft expectations. Jut my opinion, again…feels like random complaining.

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Do you REALLY remember Matt Millens 1st draft?
If you think it was 2001, you’d be wrong.

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Backus, Raiola, and Rogers the first three picks. That was a sensible investment in the trenches with three successful players

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All thanks to Bill Tobin who made the picks in the 2001 draft.

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Well to be fair it is 4 starters on the Lions. I am 56 and might be able to do a couple reps at D tackle on that squad.

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Some not-so-impressive numbers from our D line.

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Maybe I can get in a few reps.