Draft Trade w/ NYG

[TouchdownMyPants]

@NowFromTN

@NowFromTN

Fitzgerald-Spielberger point system

Here is a good explanation and @Jman is correct, the JJ system is from 1991 and has been or being replaced by these

The Fitzgerald-Spielberger (FS) chart modernizes NFL draft pick valuation by focusing on rookie contract surplus value and on-field production (approximate value) to prioritize mid-round picks, while the Jimmy Johnson (JJ) system, created in 1991, heavily overvalues top-10 picks and is based on historical trade sentiment rather than current statistical analysis

But it DOES take into account player position and contract value, as well as 2nd contract value… It’s puts a MUCH higher value on later round picks.

NFL Draft Trade Value Chart | Over the Cap

[TouchdownMyPants]

Here’s their value on the Lions/Cardinals trade in 2023…

Huge value gap in that chart

[NowFromTN]

OK, so does that make it wrong?
The JJ chart is known to be outdated, and teams are not using it anymore
It put way too much weight on top 10 picks

Not sure what to say, you can use the JJ chart if you want, but I would rather use something more up to date using analytical data

[TouchdownMyPants]

@NowFromTN

OK, so does that make it wrong?
The JJ chart is known to be outdated, and teams are not using it anymore
It put way too much weight on top 10 picks

Not sure what to say, you can use the JJ chart if you want, but I would rather use something more up to date using analytical data

Well, using the Lions/Cardinals example again… The Jimmy Johnson value chart puts it as

Lions - 1785
Cardinals - 1784

So while you claim it to be outdated… It still lines up with what teams are trading

[NowFromTN]

So guess what, look at who the Lions got and look who the Cardinals got then tell me who won that trade.
Lions by far. So the F&S model was actually correct

[NowFromTN]

@TouchdownMyPants

So while you claim it to be outdated

I don’t claim it to be outdated, just google it and read some articles on value charts

Sheesh, you think I just made this shit up

[TouchdownMyPants]

@NowFromTN

So guess what, look at who the Lions got and look who the Cardinals got then tell me who won that trade.
Lions by far. So the F&S model was actually correct

But it’s not what they used to make the trade, which is my point… They still use the JJ value chart

[TouchdownMyPants]

@NowFromTN

@TouchdownMyPants

So while you claim it to be outdated

I don’t claim it to be outdated, just google it and read some articles on value charts

Sheesh, you think I just made this shit up

Mk… When they stop making trades that exactly line up with the JJ chart, I’ll admit it’s outdated… Until then, it’s still the standard

[Slay]

@NowFromTN

Here is a good explanation and @Jman is correct, the JJ system is from 1991 and has been or being replaced by these

The Fitzgerald-Spielberger (FS) chart modernizes NFL draft pick valuation by focusing on rookie contract surplus value and on-field production (approximate value) to prioritize mid-round picks, while the Jimmy Johnson (JJ) system, created in 1991, heavily overvalues top-10 picks and is based on historical trade sentiment rather than current statistical analysis

The best trade chart is the ones NFL teams use. I’m fairly sure nobody in the league uses a chart made by the OTC guys, firstly because very few trades balance out using their chart which suggests it isn’t being used, and secondly because some of their analytics are wild (they have Shedeur Sanders as the second most valuable QB in the league https://overthecap.com/valuation) so anyone should be wary of using any of their analytics tools.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

Harvard created a trade chart which I suspect might be the ones teams use, just by virtue of the fact that it comes from Harvard.

[NowFromTN]

@Slay

@NowFromTN

Here is a good explanation and @Jman is correct, the JJ system is from 1991 and has been or being replaced by these

The Fitzgerald-Spielberger (FS) chart modernizes NFL draft pick valuation by focusing on rookie contract surplus value and on-field production (approximate value) to prioritize mid-round picks, while the Jimmy Johnson (JJ) system, created in 1991, heavily overvalues top-10 picks and is based on historical trade sentiment rather than current statistical analysis

The best trade chart is the ones NFL teams use. I’m fairly sure nobody in the league uses a chart made by the OTC guys, firstly because very few trades balance out using their chart which suggests it isn’t being used, and secondly because some of their analytics are wild (they have Shedeur Sanders as the second most valuable QB in the league https://overthecap.com/valuation) so anyone should be wary of using any of their analytics tools.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

Harvard created a trade chart which I suspect might be the ones teams use, just by virtue of the fact that it comes from Harvard.

OK I will use this one then, sounds fair
Rams #13 - 276.8
Lions #17, #118, #128 - 254+82.6+76.2 = 412.8

Lions would be crazy to do that, again terrible trade value
BTW the 412.8 is 149% over the 276.8
The OTC has 1700 to 2687, which is 158%
Pretty damn close to the same delta % wise

I read that article and he is using statistical date to come up with his values
The JJ chart were just arbitrary numbers , he even states that in the article “These values are completely arbitrary: there is no statistical evidence to back up the relative values of these draft picks.”