Elite QB play vs Elite Defense

The big debate over whether to target Young/Stroud or Anderson/Murphy will rage on for the next 5 months…

I was reading in another thread about how pedestrian QBs winning the SB was a rare anomaly, and not the norm, but I’m not so sure….

So if we go back to 2000… here are the list of QBs who threw 30 plus TDs and won a ring in that year…

30 TDs passes or more and won SB same year

Peyton- Colts
Brady- Bucs
Brady- Brady 18’

  • so 6 times in the last 22 seasons a QB who had a Pro Bowl/MVP type season won a SB…


Big Ben- 17
Brady- 18
P Manning/Osweiler- 19
Dilfer/Banks- 20
Big Ben/Maddox/Batch- 20
Joe Flacco- 22
Brady- 23 (03’)
Brad Johnson/Rob Johnson- 23
Eli Manning- 23

  • so there were 5 seasons where teams with 20 or less passing TDs won… and 9 with 23 or less…. NEARLY HALF THE LAST TWENY ONE SUPER BOWLS WINNING QBS HAS GAME MANAGER LIKE SEASONS!

Now look at this…

00’- #1 Bal
01’- #6 NE
02’- #1 TB
03’- #1 NE
04’- #3 NE
05’- #3 Pit
06’- #23 Ind
07’- #17 NYG
08’- #1 Pit
09’- #20 NO
10’- #2 GB
11’- #25 NYG
12’ - #12 Bal
13’- #1 Sea
14’- #8 NE
15’- #4 Den
16’- #1 Ne
17’- #4 Phi
18’- #7 NE
19’- #7 KC
20’- #8 TB
21’- #15 LAR

So only 6 times in 21 years did a team win the Super Bowl without a top 8 defense!!!

But 11 of the past 21 SB winners finish #1-4 overall in D….

  • I’m sure somebody will insinuate stats being cherry picked or whatever, but in reality it’s just math and history.

There have been 18 times in nfl history where a QB tossed over 40 tds and only TB12, Stafford and K Warner won SBs in those years.


This is why I go defense every time. A good QB (doesn’t have to be elite) can win with a good team around him. An elite QB can only do so much without the needed pieces.


I agree look at jimmy g. Hes got a great defense and his numbers aren’t off the chart


Give me an elite defense and run game every time.


That’s why they say offense wins games and defense wins championships


00- Ravens and Giants
01’- Pats and Rams
02’- Bucs and Raiders
03’- Patriots and Panthers
04’- Patriots and Eagles
05’- Steelers and Seahawks
06’- just Bears (Colts #23)
07’- just Patriots (Giants #17)
08’- just Steelers (Seahawks #25)
09’- just Colts (Saints #20)
10’- Packers and Steelers
11’- neither team
12’- just 49ers (Ravens were #12)
13’- just Seahawks (Broncos #22)
14’- Patriots and Seahawks
15’- Broncos and Panthers
16’- just Patriots (Falcons #27)
17’- Patriots and Eagles
18’- just Patriots (Rams #20)
19’- Chiefs and 49ers
20’- just Bucs (Chiefs #11)
21’- neither team (Rams and Bengals 15 and 17)


Only 2 of past 21 years were played with both teams outside #10 overall…


31 of the last 42 teams in the SB had a top 10 D….



Great post Lyon.

Unfortunately there will be some that want us to draft a new QB for a variety of reasons: 1. It’s the new shiny object 2. Goff sucks no matter what 3. If we draft a new QB, and even if he sucks, look at all the money we save versus Goff’s salary.

Personally I’ve always viewed defense as a priority. And based on what I’ve seen from the current college QBs, I just don’t see a difference maker over and above Goff.

Draft defense, pay Goff next year to avoid a sizable cap hit. If Goff’s play doesn’t improve, then who we draft in 2024 is obvious and it doesn’t cost us much to get rid of him.


Yep, still wins and is transportable

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It’s actually pretty funny how once a QB wins a SB he’s considered elite…. Nobody would have considered Flacco, Eli, Big Ben elite passers at the time they one.

Big Ben has 2 SB rings in seasons where he had 17 tds and a #1 defense. His stats in those games were awful too. Lol

Eli has a 23 td and 20 int year with a ring and a freaking 73.9 rating.

Flacco was 22 and 10 with an 87.7 rating

TB12 first 2 rings were 18 Tds and 12 ints and 23 tds and 12 ints with ratings in the 80s


I completely agree with this. I posted something very similar on a different thread and someone told me it was too hard to maintain a strong defense year to year. Didn’t explain why.


Cool stats… but how many of those trams had top 10 scoring offenses… which often got the team a lead and made the opposing offense one-dimensional???

Complimentary football is necessary.

Most of the dominant defense teams that don’t have a true franchise QB get a sniff of playoff success… and then regress fairly quickly.

Again…. I will be watching Stroud and Levis very closely the next 2 months.

I’m simply not taking a 185 pound QB- there is a reason that zero teams have done so since 1982… and even that is skewed based on everyone being smaller then….

  • yes it’s tough to reload on defense if you attempt to run a 4-2 or 4-3 front… why?

A pair of 6’4” 310 pound DTs with power to stop the run and speed to disrupt the pocket.

A 6’5” 270 pound guy with strength to bull rush and 4.6 speed to get the edge

A 6’4 275-280 big DE who can take on doubles from the RT/TE and set the edge while being athletic enough to get 6-8 sacks.

And then you have 2-3 LBers who need to take on the free OG coming at them, and quickly stack, shed, and get the runner. They also have to be able to run sideline to sideline. So think 4.55 speed…

—— Staffing and reloading the front 7 in a 3-4 is far easier and the players and body types are simply more readily available.

season 13 GIF

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00’- #14 Bal
01’- #19 NE
02’- #18 TB
03’- #18. NE
04’- #7 NE
05’- #9 Pitt
06’- #3 Colts
07’- #14 NYG
08’- #20 Pitt
09’- #1 NO
10’- #10 GB
11’- #9 NYG
12’- #10 Bal
13’- #9 Sea
14’- #4 NE
15’- #20 Den
16’- #3 NE
17’- #3 Philly
18’- #4 NE
19’- #5 KC
20’- #3 TB
21’- #7 LA

So 15 of last 21 SB winners had a top 8 D…. Only 10 of the last 21 had a top 8 offense.

  • only 1 team in 21 years had the #1 offense and won the SB

  • 6 of the last 21 SB winners were the #1 overall D…

Who is a true franchise QB?

At the time it was believed that RG3, Winston, Mariota, Leinart, VY, Bortles, Gabbert, J Rosen, Haskins, D Jones, David Carr, Joey Harrington, S Darnold, Wentz, and soooo many others were expected to be that guy-


We are playing….

S Zylstra
J Phillips
B Wright
J Williams
J Jackson
C Reynolds
K Raymond
T Kennedy

  • other than the 10 snaps we are limping Swift out there for… that is our skilled position group-

Two 4ths, a 5th and a bunch of UDFAs

  • if the team believes Stroud is the next Burrow, or Levis is the next J Allen- I’d be all for it…

Bryce Young will never be a franchise QB w
In my opinion.


The question will be if there is a true franchise QB available for us to take. If there is, he has got to be the pick.

If you can have Aaron Donald or Tom Brady in their prime who do you take? It’s Brady and it’s not even a debate. The answer would be Mahomes, Allen, Brees, Peyton, etc over Donald.

QBs just have that big an impact. We can debate whether Young will be an elite QB, but it’s not debatable that QBs are just so much more valuable than anything else.

At the end of the day, I don’t see us picking high enough for Anderson or Young as they are likely both top three picks

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Yup…if you want to focus on Bryce Young’s stature, he most likely will be a bust. Not surprised because you are a Goff supporter. And being such a supporter, you ignore the most important part of being an NFL QB. The intangibles…and Bryce Young seems to have elite intangibles. I’m not saying he is going to be elite, or that I want to take him. But I wouldn’t bet against him due to what I believe is elite football/quarterback IQ.

That being said, I do not love the guy lol for reasons that you doubt him. He is so small…combo that with being on the Lions and I see almost certain bust. If we take him I pray to god I am wrong, but this is not the franchise for him IMO. I’ll take the elite defensive prospect with our top pick. I think we have some nice pieces on the defensive side of the ball with Hutch, Okudah, Joseph, and Rodrigo. Add a couple more and we are on to something. Goff is under contract so the need for a serviceable QB is not there. I would however definitely take one on day 1 or 2. Goff shouldn’t be here past 2023 regardless of what he does going forward, he isn’t worth franchise QB money. I’ve seen enough to you know he just doesn’t have “it.”

The reason Mahomes has been so good, is he came to a team that was solid across the board. Build the team first, then get a QB!