You do but there are many ways to go about it. You brought up the Bengals, do you think they regret drafting Chase?
For sure he makes the most sense for them specifically, but do you really think theyāll take the risk that theyāre drafting a OG 1st overall? That matters a lot to these guys, keeping their jobs is their top priority, followed by building a good team and actually doing their jobs. Theyāre politicians, basically.
In fact I think that if they do go Icky (or Neal), those guys will be essentially guaranteed to end up at tackle over the perception of the whole thing. Which means their positional flexibility will have less of an impact on the decision.
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No the difference on that point is, Burrow got help with a WR. What does Hutch do for Lawrence? Im not big fan of us taken Hutch.
So now they canāt draft a player thar doesnāt help Trevor?
No i think they should draft a ot for him. Trevor is their future.
Then would you draft a WR to help Lawrence #1 overall? Probably not because thereās not one that worth the #1 overall pick. Thatās how I feel about the tackles, theyāre not worth taking above Hutch (or Thibs based on the tape, but of course heās got some different concerns that arenāt tape-related).
Now itās possible the Jags donāt love Hutch, Baalke is a bad drafting GM after all, in which case they may go OL. But to me Hutch is easily the top player in the draft when you take everything into account.
The interesting thing is when decker came back and got up to football speed we started winning games. Our offense evolved from unwatchable to competent. Goff also started to play like a top 15 quarterback when he started to be protected. If Iām the jags Iād be paying attention to that.
On a side note, I canāt wait to watch our line this season. Jackson in year 3 coming off a pro bowl, ragnow healthy, decker healthy, and Sewell with a year in an nfl weight roomā¦ā¦itās gonna be a wake up call for our opponents.
The thing with the jags is that theyāve taken two pass rushers the last two drafts that are pretty good. Defensive end isnāt really a big need for them. Their offensive line is a train wreck though. Taking a tackle would be the smart move.
A lot?
Pretty strong statement when those people your talking about thought the Jags were going OT just 5 days ago. The Odds changed after that to Hutch but I do not think it makes that big of a difference. Neither does Vegas because the odds on Neal arenāt far behind Hutch.
Robinson was the 11th worst OT (That includes RTās) in the NFL on QB pressures. Only 10 starting OTās were worse.
Yeah he didnāt give up sacks but I think a lot of that falls on Lawrenceās ability to avoid them. Heās been a below average starting LT his entire career until last season. Heās not very good and I believe thatās why Jacksonville hasnāt inked him to a long term deal. Their buying time until they can upgrade. This is their chance. Thatās why I say thereās a high probability they will do it. Not to mention both their starting OGās are hitting FA and their center is expected to be a cap casualty.
If they draft an OT they can play him at RT or OG for a year.
Iām pretty sure he will lose his starting job to Little this year. Heās been terrible. Itās possible Jacksonville moves him inside this season in hopes of salvaging him. But heās struggles bad at RT.
Point being the Jags have some serious holes on that OL. Robinson isnāt likely a long term solution. Right now they have a question mark at every OL spot on the entire OL. Taking an OT helps to answer a lot of those questions.
Thatās how I see it anyways. We will know soon enough.
A lot was probably too strong, but it was in response to āhigh probability they take an OT,ā which according to Vegas isnāt a probability at all. But yes, youāre right, Hutch isnāt an overwhelming favorite. But heās still the more likely option.
I agree he hasnāt been good, but Iām going based on what Jags fans say re: Robinson on their forums. Theyāre almost unanimous in their praise of his play over the last part of the season, and they watch every game. I havenāt (I doubt you have either).
That said Iād agree with you that this is their chance to find the long term answerā¦ if there was an answer to be found. To me, Neal and Ekwonu arenāt on the same planet as Sewell, Slater, Wirfs, Wills, Becton or Thomas as prospects. And one of those guys is going #1 overall? I canāt get behind it. Frankly my favorite option for them would be Charles Cross, but I highly doubt they have the cojones to do something like that.
Yeah I agree the line needs upgrading, I just wouldnāt do it with the #1 pick. Iād go hard after Terron Armstead or Laāel Collins or Tunsil. Iād do it with day 2 picks (especially at iOL, Zion Johnson would be great for them at #33).
Yeah this might all be wasted breath in as little as a week. Weāll see.
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That article with odds is from Monday night ā the day BEFORE the Jags placed the franchise tag on Robinson.
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Tuesday nightā¦ after Jags tagged Robinson
The betting odds did change significantlyā¦ in 24 hours.
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What they think of Robinson is kind of irrelevant. The Jags have had to tag him twice because they canāt get him under contract. By the time the draft comes around, they will have spent extra time trying to negotiate with him and if they donāt have him signed, its going to be 100% clear that they canāt sign the guy.
Signing the guy to a deal is a game changer. Tagging him just shows they value the role he plays but canāt sign him, so they will need someone else to fill in that role.
I think it speaks to his talent/improvement as a player better than anything we can deduce from afar, and how can the level of his talent not be relevant to the discussion?
Now the particulars of his career and contracts are also relevant, but those arenāt mutually exclusive. And it also goes both ways. My argument is that there isnāt a tackle worth the #1 overall pick, so maybe they tagged Robinson to buy them another year. Maybe thatās why thereās no long-term contract. Itās a possibility anyway.
But if he lacked talent they wouldnāt have tagged him and we wouldnāt be talking about any of this, so I think his level of talent is definitely relevant.
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They tagged him last year because they couldnāt sign him. They tagged him again, because they couldnāt sign him. If they canāt get him signed by the time the draft rolls around, it is a clear indication that the Jags know he canāt be signed. His price will only go up after the draft. Jags fans who love him only validates why Robinson is taking his position, which is above the price point the Jags are willing to pay. Jags fans who donāt like him only validates the teams position, in why they are not willing to give in to Robinsonās demands.
In other words, no matter which way you go it doesnāt matter. Robinson and the Jags are still in the same standoff. And if they havenāt signed him by draft time, it is what it is.
Iām using fan opinion as a barometer for the playerās talent because itās the best I have to go on, and a majority of the fans Iāve seen have praised his play over the past year. If that was closer to a 50/50 split then perhaps the āJags fans who donāt like him only validates the teams positionā statement would be more accurate, but if thatās only 20% of the fanbase, why should we put as much stock in it?
Anyway I disagree with your belief that their opinion is irrelevant to the discussion but youāre certainly entitled to it and I figure youāre not budging. I donāt care enough to get bogged down into the minutiae of what percentage of fans like him or not or some other such drudgery. My entire purpose joining this thread was because it started off as everyone acting like tagging Robinson had no effect on who they would take, when the drastic change in Vegas odds said the opposite.
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Thatās definitely a possibilityā¦ They have the money to target some free agents and could solidify things before the draft. But even if they found two starting OGās and a starting OC they still have a one year option on Robinson. It seems unlikely to me they would target a FA OT after tagging Robinson but itās a possibility.
I think they almost have to draft an OT high in this draft. Theyāve already taken an OT in round two twice in recent years and it hasnāt really worked out for them. Little has shown promise but Taylor looks like a bust.
I strongly feel they need some real help on that OL and they need to make it a priority to protect their star QB.
Does that have to be with the first pick in the draft? ā¦No ā¦ I agree that they could possibly fix it in FAā¦ maybe even trade down, or make another attempt in round two. But I think OL is one of there biggest needs and thereās OL talent that is worthy of a top 5 pick.
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This smells like them picking Ekwonu.
Chaisson has not been good.
The Jacksonville Jaguars used the 20th pick in the 2020 draft on KāLavon Chaisson after he posted 6.5 sacks in his final season at LSU. He didnāt have elite production for the Tigers, but he impressed scouts with his athleticism on tape and his long build.
Through two seasons, none of those factors have led to results on the field. Chaisson has remained relatively healthy, appearing in 31 games over the last two seasons, but has just two sacks to show for it.
With Josh Allen producing on the outside, it isnāt as though Chaisson sees extra attention from offensive lines.
The odds did change but they didnāt change significantly.
I pointed out the odds changed 5 days ago and why. See my quote below.
Pretty strong statement when those people your talking about thought the Jags were going OT just 5 days ago. The Odds changed after that to Hutch but I do not think it makes that big of a difference. Neither does Vegas because the odds on Neal arenāt far behind Hutch.
Significantly is a strong word and the change wasnāt significant it was mild.
5 days ago Neal was the slight favorite and Hutch was 3rd in Odds now Hutch is a slight favorite.
I wouldnāt go so far as to say that Vegas disagrees a lot that the Jags wonāt take a tackle. (See quote below) The odds suggest otherwise.
The people who make the big bucks to forecast those sorts of decisions in Vegas disagree a lot.
Neal was first in odds now heās tied for 2nd in odds. The current odds are this.
| Aidan Hutchinson (EDGE) | -150 |
|---|---|
| Evan Neal (OT) | +350 |
| Ikem Ekwonu (OT) | +350 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux (EDGE) | +800 |
| Malik Willis (QB) | +3000 |
I think itās clear that Vegas believes the 1OA pick will be either Hutch or an OT and their currently giving Hutch the slight favorite. Then they have a drop off to KT. Then a significant drop off to Willis.
But Vegas has been flip flopping back and forth for months now from KT, then to Hutch, then to Neal, then to Ekwonu, then back to Neal and now back to Hutch.
But I think itās clear Hutch, Neal and Ekwonu are the hands on favorites at this time.
Donāt be surprised if the top 5 odds possibilities change a few more times between now and the draft.
Iām not convinced they want to commit to him long term.
Heās been very inconsistent. Even last year he was inconsistent. Last year was the first year he played above an average level. Overall heās been a below average OT.
So theyāre in a bad spot. Do they give a mediocre player a long term deal, do they cut him and potentially get worse or do they tag him letting him be insurance while they look for a better option?
I think they tagged him as insurance. As the bridge LT until they can upgrade.
Question is will they draft another OT this year, next year, or try to groom Little for the role?
Personally I think If they thought Little was the future then they would not have tagged Robinson.
I honestly believe OT is the most likely option for them. I am fairly convinced they will draft one early in this draft. Could it be at 1OA, could they trade down or will they wait until round two again? Thatās the question we will know the answer to soon enough.
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