Giorgio is knocking it out of the park with these posts!..spot on.
The next stat these stat-sites need to do is yards against prevent defense…Stafford would lead this category.
he’s also played here in Detroit where we have struggled like hell to keep even a decent running game, with tons of dropped footballs, and a hit and miss defense almost his entire career, 20+ HC’s, several OC’s, an o-line playing musical chairs, many scheme changes & gameplans , getting injured every other season…on a bottom-feeding team. so you can’t tell me that he wouldn’t do better on a team with more of it’s shit together.
It’s all conjecture what he would do on another team. Believe it or not, QBs have a huge impact on a team winning or losing, so he has played a part in the Lions fortunes. I am not here to argue Matt’s skill or ability.
At most, a QB might have 5 more dropped balls a year than an average QB. But the fact that he plays on a team that is losing a lot means he needs to throw the ball more than a team that is winning a lot. So your argument that he would have “elevated numbers” seems outlandish. You do realize that Stafford is tied with Andrew Luck for the all time leader in attempts per game for a career. If the Lions were winning more often, Stafford would not be throwing the ball as much; therefore, he would have less passing yards than he has now. He averages around 5 more pass attempts a game than Aaron Rodgers over his career. That is around 80 more attempts a year. If he completes 62% of his passes, that is 50 more completions a year than Rodgers. Stafford has averaged 11.5 yards per completion, so that would be 575 yards a season. Over 10 years, that is 5,750 yards just from his extra attempts. He would in all likelihood have a lower number of yards if he played on a different team. I don’t think raw passing yards is a very good way to judge a QB.
Like I mentioned earlier, this is, in my opinion, the best Stafford has ever played. Stafford is only 20th in completion % and 8th in rating, but is playing better than his numbers would indicate. The fact that he is protecting the ball better than in years past and making better decisions is a big reason why I think this.
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I like the guy. I’ve been very hard on him over the years but I’ll never question his toughness or committment. I think we will miss him a lot when he hangs em up.
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Stafford seems like a genuine good guy. While I can’t say he is the best QB out there, he is an asset to the franchise and the community simply because he understands that the QB needs to be professional and the face of the franchise. I think he is right up there with Eli, Newton, Brees, etc. as far as being active in the community.
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You need to have your Mayhew avatar, Canucklehead. It’s just not the same without it.
Haha! I actually was using a combined old lady ford and patricia avatar, it was glorious. Ill see what I can dig up
EDIT: There you go, just for old times sake lol (I’m an MS PAINT Da Vinci)
Yes you are, my friend, yes you are.
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Very good post and well researched on your part. If you were to extend the criteria to something less than a Super Bowl win, you would still see the same pattern. In modern day football, if the coach doesn’t win in at least one of his first 2 seasons, it’s not likely to happen. If he doesn’t win in his first 3 seasons, it’s pretty much not going to happen at all.
Going back to two of your examples, Pete Carroll is an interesting case. Despite having a losing record in his 1st season with the Hawks, he won the division and a playoff game. As far as Vermiel, he has a 3 year plan he goes by (but also lucked into some things). He didn’t have winning seasons with the Eagles, Rams or Chiefs in his first 2 seasons with any of those teams and then exploded in his 3rd year with all 3 of them.
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Yeah, I think you have to give any HC a minimum of 3 years.
Just to add to this, I don’t think it’s always all-on the HC either. If you have a shitty GM, it doesn’t matter who your HC is.
I’ve always been a Stafford supporter an like you I’m not complaining about how he’s doing this year.
what I said is The Lions almost always found a way to lose and have-been a basement dwelling team. because we rarely had our stuff together , unlike several other teams that have went to bowls and more playoffs than we ever have.
that is why I said IF Stafford was on one of those teams, it only stands to reason that his numbers would climb more. his winning more games would increase as well.
Instead, he is here without much to brag about in the defensive and running department, and he’s had a handful of players dropping footballs—once we lead the league in drops in back to back seasons. our defense has been top 10 twice , we were the first team to go 0-16.
but in 2019 yeah Stafford is having a good season…I’m not arguing that.
wesley it is a very good post and not a flaw in his points. But as you say…if you expound on it a little you will see there are some who got their teams to the playoff by year three and didn’t win a Super Bowl. Jim Schwartz comes to mind. His points, while very good, only shows that it’s possible to do such a thing and such a thing occurs at least once in the circle of coaching hires. But there are a few others that have made the playoffs but no super bowl wins
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But you miss the point , it’s not stats in a vacuum, it’s not an apples to apples comparison as you can not make that happen . What you can do is break down the splits , look at what each does when in very similar circumstances and situations, the career numbers for air yards , avg yards gained per pass for the two near identical . This Brady goes down field stuff back it up with something
You do get that the yards or air yards or yards per att avg is greatly effected by Stafford throwing from shotgun 5 out of every 6 passes for his career as you get no credit for any yards until you pass the line of scrimmage ?
The nonsense about prevent defenses has no merit and would only effect the comparison of when trailing even if it did play a part, so it has no relevancy here . The body of proof is not a small one, Stafford has thrown over 1600 passes with the lead which is the equivalent of almost 3 full seasons worth of passes with the lead and when Stafford does pass with the lead he is on par with the best ever and that includes Brady
So when you are Stafford and you have the Lions Defense that gives up the points they do , never holding a lead and always in a dog fight making Stafford throw from behind/trailing in a 2 to 1 ratio to passing with the lead (when compared to Brady who is nearly the opposite ratio ) and being a QB’s numbers are worse when trailing for all QB’s it only tells the story clearer .
The situational stats , the better comparison stats , splits , down and distance , leading or trailing , run game numbers , points the defense gives up etc, all say Brady does no better here as a Lion as his numbers say it is the case.
You can not make the argument one way and not the other, you want to pretend Stafford sees Prevent Defenses on the regular and it’s not the case but then make no mention how much easier it is to throw with the lead or a big lead as most defenses sell out to stop the run when up big in the 4th quarter and often man up .
The evading sacks ?..Come on are we going to compare what each has had in front of him to protect them while sitting back or stepping up in a pocket ?
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Actually, Ford Motor Co. purchased the Lions and placed WCF as president and minority owner in '61. To get him away from the company because of his ■■■■ ups. He was about a competent an owner as Goodell is as commish. In meaning, screw the product per the bottom line. Works fine in the business aspect, but was Satan as a football ogre.
HAAHAHAHA …and Cub this is all conjecture as well the OP misses that. The OP also misses that when you make the comparisons between two QB’s from different teams they can be made more apple to apple when splits and and circumstances are similar.
As for Brady not once, not ever , have I seen a throw Brady has made and said Stafford can’t do that , plenty of throws Stafford makes Brady would never attempt because he cant.
If the idea here is that passing while trailing is just so much easier why does every stat say otherwise ? Why are QB’s at their worst when trailing? Why are they at their best when leading …why when tied do the numbers reflect closer to trailing than leading? …this is not conjecture , these are facts.
When the facts say Brady has had to overcome the massive 61 total points scored by his opponents through 8 games , a TD a game to have to best on avg, you are not under pressure , you do not have to put the team on your back , you are not the reason your team is winning , he may be the reason they are winning easy , but once again it’s a night and day and difference the situations Brady passes in and what each is asked to do to get the win .
So Cub yes the QB plays a big role in Wins & losses , they do , it’s what each has to do to get the win that is so very different , the plan, the players, coaches , the opponents etc all play a much bigger role than any QB ever will.
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Other than the refs screwing us out of more chances it was CJ that ■■■■■■ us in that game with a huge drop and false start late on back to back plays.
So Brady’s numbers are deceptive but it appears the patriots are on the hook for 32 million for this year. The lions are only on the hook for 29 million. Fat contract, hmmmm…
I agree on this - The entire argument about padded stats has been proven wrong. A few years ago then Pride of Detroit (I think it was them) did a breakdown of Staffords stats by quarter. He gets a little over 26% of his yardage in the 4th quarter (so a little under 11,000 of his 40,000 yards come in the 4th quarter. I believe that the 2nd quarter was his highest total. It looks to me based on the stats that it takes him a little bit of time to warm up. He gets better the longer he plays. If I were his coach I would try to figure out why he gets better over time and try improve his early game. Of course he is already doing better this year so maybe they did.
Where are you getting $32M from? I’m seeing $21.5M.
Signing bonus due over next two years with no terms of salary.