Good Insights From Birkett

From the draft and free agency to Goff’s contract, Dave has some good takes!


Great, listened to the whole thing. I think his take of what the Lions are trying to do and how they are willing to do it was excellent, esp if he’s right.

These guys spend their time talking to folks who are NOT crazy Lions fans ( as Wes suggested years back…I miss that guy!). All this talk about QB us a waste of time. Goff played really well in the 8-2 run. Why go get a guy who might not play as well as Goff did those last 10 weeks of the season? Seems dumb to me.

The Lions are VERY unlikely to sign a street free agent for big $ in 2023. They are building something here and going outside for a big $ stranger makes no sense.

Dave is overall (I believe) right in that Brad is likely to keep what we have in 2023.

To me here is what the Lions do:
Re-sign Chark, Jamaal, Anzalone and Cominsky all together. Announce them on the same day. I don’t see how we get better without these guys.

Then, get to work on Elliott and Buggs.

I think Brad quietly works to extend Jonah Jackson but that doesn’t formally get signed until after the draft.

Brad has to make a decision at ROG. Cut or keep Vaitai and offer Evan Brown a deal or let him walk or let them both walk. I think Brad keeps Vaitai and drafts a G/C earlier than people think (rd. 2?).

Then draft Carter or Bresee, at least 1 CB, likely a RB, a G/C and then the best you can get later.


Any bold soldiers want to do a short recap? Kind of swamped with work (yes, I am on the Den at the same time, give me a break). I love reading the breakdowns though!

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I feel like you have to at least make an offer to Brown. He played a lot, is versatile, and good at a few things. I don’t know what the right number is, but at least give him a chance to stay if he wants in…


You may be right about Even. But is a low ball offer better than saying “I know you will more more than I can pay you elsewhere as you are now likely seen as a legit starter?”

We hold the cards on Vaitai so if we want Evan and we are going to cut Vaitai to pay for it…lock down Evan (if that is the call) and then announce the release of Vaitai.

OR…cut Vaitai and let Evan walk. Brown is 27 in September and Vaitai is 30 in June.

What if there is a 10% reduction in QB efficiency & production, but you free up 35 million in cap space by pulling the trigger?
What if it’s 20%?
Wonder where ppl draw the line on that?

Obviously, if you feel you can be better or the same, you pull the trigger on the young, cheap guy!


I like this thought Natty but to me (as I watched/listened to all the games) losing 10% production (which is of course theoretical) to me means the Lions lose games. I am NOT up for losing more games with a cheaper QB for four years.

Year one and likely year two are going to be worse. You HOPE for a young QB to be worth the investment by year three overall. Yes a few young QBs arrive in year two…some later if at all. To me Daniel Jones will never be worth what they are about to pay him for example. Burrows IS worth the investment. Folks are going crazy for Trevor Lawrence but hell, I would not take Trevor and his contract fro Goff right now. Trevor (like many QBs) has been horrible And GOOD. Justin Fields? Likely never going to be a good passer. Herbert? Hard to say what he will be. Trey Lance (the #3 OA pick…) isn’t worth his current contract. Mac Jones MIGHT be good but I am not taking him over Goff right now. Mahomes is amazing but he say for a full year and then was awesome.

Point is for every top rookei QB drafted early there is a solid QB and there is a bust. Why take that risk when we have Goff? To me the opportunity cost of a blue chip defender is too high for the Lions to have a QB sit and learn for a year or two.

I don’t buy into the theory at all about cheap QBs doing better than hurting their teams later based on cap hits with their second contracts. Brady has been incredible since his early days. Did he really take less? Matt Stafford was expensive for the Rams. Brady was expensive for the Bucs. Mahomes IS a bargain. Nick Foles was lucky and cheap for the Eagles (but not folks after that!). Peyton was no bargain EITHER time he won a ring. Wilson was a bargain/1st contract guy when he won his ring but Joe Flacco, Eli manning and Aaron Rodgers were NOT on their 1st contracts. This point has been debated many times on this board.

If you have a guy that can do the job…stick with him. Period. I understand rolling for the next Mahomes or Josh Allen but you are just as likely to get aTrey Lance/Justin Fields/Dwayne Haskins/Baker Mayfield/Sam Darnold/Josh Rosen/Mitch Trubisky/Carson Wentz and so on.

There are 32 starting QBs in the NFL and honestly how many are solid options overall? Maybe 20? We have a good one and I’m keep him through another contract while I draft and build a better team around him. Further, I set myself up to re-sign the stars/good players I draft so we never face another Suh situation again.


Brown is clearly best at center, where it gets interesting is Ragnow’s injury history the past 2 years. If the Lions have doubts about Ragnow getting fully healthy in the future, Brown might be more important than a lot of us think he is. Ragnow said he wasn’t sure if he was going to need a 2nd surgery or not this offseason on the toe.


I’m with ya, man. I am not even saying that’s how it should be…just sort of asking a hypothetical question - Elvis advocate sort of thing.

…not if you have Holmes making the decision
:facepunch: :sunglasses:

Completely get everything you say, & to varying levels & layers agree.

I think Goff stays. I just trust Brad more than I trust any of us (myself included), & I know if he goes another direction that it is likely something to b excited about, cuz that handsome MF’r is feeling he’s upgrading if he’s making the move…& e’s reeeeeeaaaal smart.

Really appreciate & enjoyed your detailex response man.
:pray: :pray:


Won’t dispute re-upping Jared after the 24 season!
Some perspective:
NFC Championship- Hurts and ? Both teams started the year with their QB on rookie contracts.
AFC Championship- Burrows on rookie deal, Maholes extension kicks in for 23 season.

3 of the 4 teams started the year with QB’s on their rookie contract, Bengals were in a rebuild.
Amazing how much $$ a team has to build with when you have a QB on a rookie deal.
The question becomes, how many of Sewell’s, Hutch, ARSB, McNeil’s ect. can we resign after 2024 with a QB taking up $42-45M of cap space?

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What really sucks is that ragnow said the toe was feeling pretty good after the bye. If we hadn’t been decimated by injuries at guard we could have played brown at center for a few more games and had ragnow at 80%ish for the stretch run.

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I’m conflicted on that one. Bringing everyone back from a team that went 8-2 down the stretch is appealing. However, this was also a very flawed team. Signing a player like bates or long jr at linebacker could be huge upgrades to the roster. I don’t want a free agent just to make a splash signing. I don’t mind one that can have clear impact on the roster though.

I view it almost like the lions are a team that ha d a near terminal illness but no immune system.
Brad & Dan are the immune system… the lions are healing & getting better.

One mans “flawed” is another mans “young”.


True. There’s also two types of young. There’s young with upside and young without. There are several positions on the lions defense that can certainly be upgraded from an athletic or talent standpoint. A guy like anzalone has been solid and played well in stretches. He is what he is though. His athletic limitations aren’t going to improve. Age won’t make Jerry jacobs run faster. I’m ok if brad Holmes wants to add a player or two in free agency. Especially if that player is an impact player. I doubt anyone would have a problem if we sign bates and he becomes our next glover Quinn to pair with Kirby. Or signing David long jr as a coverage upgrade to anzalone.


You say flawed and I say needs more talent and was young. Injuries were also BRUTAL for the Lions as well. These are the starter/key player we are getting back including Romeo Okwara healthy now, Charles Harris, Tracy Walker, Vaitai (in theory) and Jameson Williams. We also lost Chark and Cominsky for a key stretch too. Our guards also missed time. Keep our key free agents, get some player growth and add a draft where we have 5 top 90 picks and that is go time in my opinion. To me a flaw is how Schwartz and Mayhew built the Stafford teams.

In terms of playoff QBs on rookie deals it is true the AFC is stacked with young QB talent. BUT…playoffs ar often filled with veteran QBs on veteran contracts. In 2021 the playoffs featured Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, D. Carr, Big Ben, Brady, Prescott, Stafford and Jimmy G. Mahomes was on his 5th year deal I believe and/or his big $ didn’t kick in yet. Stafford won it all on a veteran contract.

Mahomes’s contract back loads his cap hits with $27 and $38 million in 2030 and 2031. Interesting. #s from Rotoworld.

If a GM plans and builds around the right group of guys hell yes you can win a ring with a veteran QB and hell yes you can remain competitive when paying a veteran QB. But a GM needs to be goo at their job to do that.


Oh absolutely. It’s not a coincidence we started playing like a top 10 team when we started getting healthy. You and I are saying the exact same thing. I just chose poorly on my word choice. I should have said this roster has flaws. It’s not a flawed roster.

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I’m very upbeat about the upside of our young players. Possibly too optimistic with some.
I’m not as disappointed with Jacobs and Okuda as others seem to be. Both are still growing. In another thread I mentioned “hedging my bets”, I had CB in mind. I’d see who’s truly available in FA, and take one high in the draft.

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That’s his 2030 and 2031 base salaries, he also has roster bonuses of $23M and $14M

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