So with the Superbowl now over we are officially into the NFL off-season. I have done these before, but I enjoy doing them so here is another. I am doing this one with the mindset of building a legitimate Superbowl roster in 2023 without going overboard in sacrificing money for the future. The key is to build a strong roster for this season without sacrificing the ability to retain key players in future seasons. Below is what I would do, not what I actually think this staff will do.
Off-Season Cuts/Restructures
Cut Michael Brockers (10mil Cap Savings)
Cut Halapoulivaati Vatai (Roughly 6.5mil Cap Savings)
Cut Romeo Okwara (Make Post June 1st Cut, Save 11mil in 2023)
Restruture Charles Harris (Slash Base Salary From 6mil to 3mil, 3mil Cap Savings)
Restructure Frank Ragnow (Convert 10mil of His Base Salary Into a Bonus Creating 7.5mil in Space)
Restructure Taylor Decker (Convert 12mil of His Base Salary Into a Bonus Creating 8mil in Space)
That is a total savings of about 46mil. I think this staff definitely wants Harris back, and Holmes even mentioned him by name in their end of season press conference. He currently costs us 6mil in 2023 and I can’t justify that cost for Harris. He was consdered a 1st round bust. He had one solid season here and earned himself a pay raise. Last year he was struggling and then got hurt. I would move on if he doesn’t accept a pay cut. Making Romeo a June 1st cut will open up some extra cap space to sign our rookies and have some extra money going into the season.
Overall I have pushed an extra 10mil of dead cap into 2024, 6.5mil in 2025, and 2.5mil into 2026. I also freed up an extra 12.5mil in 2024 by cutting Vaitai. With the massive cap increases in the next few years this barely amounts to a drop in the bucket.
Re-Signings
DJ Chark, 3 years 36mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 7mil
Jamaal Williams, 3 Years 15mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil
Isaiah Buggs, 2 Years 4mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 1.5mil
John Cominsky, 4 Years 24mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3.25mil
DeShon Elliot, 3 Years 15mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil
Alex Anzalone, 2 Years 8mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil
Justin Jackson, 1 Year 1.25mil
I have us re-signing most of our guys as I believe a lot of these guys are the “glue guys” Campbell references. I also believe a loaded safety market will keep Elliot’s cost down.
Free Agency
Javon Hargrave, DT - 3 Years 48mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 9mil - This is my splash signing. We likely won’t have a shot at Carter and I’m not sold on any of DT prospects. We absolutely need a DT who can be a force rushing the passer next year. Da’Ron Payne will get way overpaid due to his age and the position he plays. I think Payne is a good player, but not worth the 20mil+ he is going to get. Hargrave is 30, but shows no signs of slowing down. He has been consistent throughout his career and fits the hard working gritty mindset this staff loves. On top of that he has the 3rd best pass rush grade per PFF of all interior defenders. This guys transforms this DLine, and entire defense from day 1, IMO. Guarantee all his 1st and 2nd year salaries to keep the signing bonus down so you have an out in year 3 once he turns 32.
Brandon Graham, DE - 1 Year, 6mil - Graham may be my absolute favorite FA target. His age will keep his price down and he already said he only wants to sign for one season. He is an amazing leader, and is still playing at a very high level in a part time role (#5 ranked edge per PFF and played between 40-50% of snaps). I think his leadership and expertise would be invaluable in helping develop guys like Houston, Hutch and Pascal. He is from Detroit and obviously went to Michigan so he has strong ties here. He had 48 pressures in 2022 on less than 300 pass rushing snaps. That is 5 less pressures than Hutchinson is half the snaps.
Sean Murphy-Bunting, NB - 2 Years 10mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3.5mil - He has been the Bucs slot CB for the majority of his career. He has steadily improved every season, but missed time with injury the past two seasons. I believe that will keep his cost down, but when healthy he is a very good nickelback with playmaking ability. I really think Bunting is a nice under the radar FA that would fit us well.
Patrick Peterson, CB - 1 Year, 5mil - His age will keep his value down, but I would jump all over him. Peterson would make for an excellent mentor for Okudah/Jacobs and still showed he is a legit starting outside CB. Adding a veteran like Peterson to this secondary would be a massive addition, IMO.
Drew Lock, QB - 1 Year 2mil - The market is absolutely flooded with solid backup QB options this year. This staff had interest in Lock before we traded for Goff so you know they highly of him. He would be the best backup we have had since Shaun Hill, and still can be developed a little more.
Graham Glasgow, OG - 2 Years, 9mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 3mil - Glasgow being cut in Denver appears to be a formality at this point. He has been a relaible starter at G/C the majority of his career, know Frank, Decker, and the city well, and can backup at all three interior line positions. I would take Glasgow at half the cost of Vaitai anyday of the week. Glasgow has been incredibly durable throughout his career as well.
Matt Gay, K - 4 Years 16mil, Year 1 Cap Hit 2.5mil - We expect to be a very good team next year. We cannot play games trying to find a kicker on the cheap or rely on a rookie. Bagley was decent, but he has a weak leg and even though his percentage was solid his kicks didn’y always seem clean. Don’t overthink this, invest in a reliable kicker.
NFL Draft
#6 Overall - **TRADE The Lions trade their #6 (1600) to the Panthers for #9 (1350) and #39 (510). The value definitely favors the Lions here, but this is similar to other small trade ups for QB’s in this range. Carolina will be trading up for a QB, IMO, the question is how far are they willing to go. I’d guess that two of Stroud, Levis, and Richardson will be setting there at 6.
#9 Overall - Devon Witherspoon, CB - I think Witherspoon is the best fit for our team and the best CB in the draft. He would be my pick at 6 if we can’t trade down so getting the extra pick is a bonus.
#18 Overall - Bijan Robinson, RB - I personally think he is the 4th best player in the class behind Anderson, Carter, and Young. I understand positional value, but Robinson can make this offense the best in the league. He would the biggest impact of anyone we could pick at 18, IMO.
#39 Overall - Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT - This is a guy I didn’t know much about until a few people on this board brought him up. I really really like this kid as a prospect and I think you can add 10-15 pounds to his frame and use him at 3T. I would not expect a huge year 1 impact, but he has elite pass rush potential on the interior. Let him learn behind Hargrave.
#48 Overall - Drew Sanders, LB’er - I would love Simpson here, but I think he will be gone at this point. Sanders is a very toolsy prospect and has the type of personality this staff looks for. I think he would greatly benefit from sitting behind a guy like Anzalone for a year. Sanders has legit star potential at LB’er long term, IMO.
#55 Overall - Sydney Brown, S - Safeties seem to get de-valued more and more in the draft, and you can usually find really good players on day 2. Brown is another guy that I didn’t know enough about until a few people on this board started signing his praises. He has already shown that he and Kerby compliment each other well, and gives us insurance behind Elliot this season.
#81 Overall - Cody Mauch, G - This guy just reminds me of a Dan Campbell guy. I know some think he is more of a second round guy, but guards tend to fall down the board a bit more than expected. He is athletic enough to execute all the pulls and motions that Ben Johnson ran a lot of last year. I think there is also some potential for Mauch to kick out to RT in a year or two if we decided not to re-sign Decker.
#152 Overall - Cameron Ward, QB - We need a developmental QB on this roster. Ward is very raw, but possesses enough NFL traits to develop into a quality player.
#181 Overall - Puka Nacua, WR - We need to bring in some young WR talent late in the draft this year as both Reynolds and Raymond are FA in 2024. I think Nacua has starter potential long term, but I see him more as a cheaper Josh Reynolds replacement in 2024.
#192 Overall - Carter Warren, OT - We need better depth behind Decker and Penei. Warren has enough traits to develop into a quality swing tackle and could probably fill the extra lineman role in jumbo packages in year 1.
2023 NFL 53 Man Roster
Offense
QB - Jared Goff ($30,650,000), Drew Lock ($2,000,000), Cameron Ward ($836,223)
RB - Bijan Robinson ($2,826,034), Jamaal Williams ($3,000,000), D’Andre Swift ($2,716,929), Justin Jackson ($1,250,000)
FB - Jason Cabinda ($2,565,000)
TE - James Mitchell ($930,639), Brock Wright ($940,000), Shane Zylstra (940,000)
WR - Amon Ra St-Brown ($1,136,315), Jameson Williams ($3,968,589), DJ Chark ($13,321,666), Josh Reynolds ($4,000,000), Kalif Raymond ($3,025,000), Puka Nacua ($803,835)
LT - Taylor Decker ($11,350,000), Carter Warren ($797,575)
LG - Jonah Jackson ($1,478,278), Tommy Kraemer ($940,000)
C - Frank Ragnow ($8,875,000)
RG - Graham Glasgow ($3,000,000), Cody Mauch ($1,017,532)
RT - Penei Sewell ($6,572,473)
Defense
Edge - Aidan Hutchinson ($8,116,679), James Houston ($945,000), John Cominsky ($3,250,000), Brandon Graham ($6,000,000), Josh Pascal ($1,758,104), Charles Harris ($4,988,333)
DT - Alim McNeil ($1,398,88), Javon Hargrave ($9,000,000), Adetomiwa Adebawore ($1,676,958), Isaiah Buggs ($1,500,000, Levi Onwuzurike ($2,222,425),
LB’er - Malcolm Rodriguez ($916,982), Derrick Barnes ($1,135,302), Alex Anzalone ($3,000,000), Drew Sanders ($1,408,341),
CB - Jeff Okudah ($10,668,167), Patrick Peterson ($5,000,000), Jerry Jacobs ($941,168), Devon Witherspoon ($4,213,879), Sean Murphy-Bunting ($3,500,000),
S - Kerby Joseph ($1,146,569), DeShon Elliot (3,000,000), Tracy Walker (11,321,666), Sydney Brown ($1,214,343), Ifeatu Melifonwu ($1,305,232)
Specialists
K - Matt Gay ($2,500,000)
P - Jack Fox ($3,565,000)
LS - Scott Daly ($940,000)
KR - Justin Jackson
PR - Kalif Raymond
That is a total of $205,574,124 million in cap space. We would have an additional $13,670,158 in dead money from the cuts that were made. In total that would be $219,244,282 total in cap commitments for 2023. That would leave about 7mil for the practice squad and in season moves.