36 plus 8 draft pick, less two players cut (Brockers/Vaitai) gets us to 42 players . . . so 11 more players to start the season at 53.
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I can’t see C Harris, Cabinda, Brockers or Big V here in 23’.
I assume this gets to about 46-47M? Also 32 guys right? Now factor 8 from the draft with that 11M draft pool cost?
So back to 36MM but with 40 bodies in tow….
This is where the line between signing our own guys and “filling out the roster” confuses me a touch.
Let’s say we sign 5 league minimum deals to guys like Matt Nelson at 1M per…. Brock Wright? Etc.
So we’d have 45 guys signed and roughly 31M left….that would leave us needing 6 or 8?- Dean? Don’t just the top 51 count?
Either way…. Let’s assume we bring back Swaggy, Commish, Buggs, Board, and maybe Chark? 3, 4, 2, 2, 6 are my projected year one cap hits…. Not including what we already have factored for Chark in dead cap. That’s about 17M
We’d have 13M left for 3 outside free agents, but i bet that we kick 5M of Goffs money around if we don’t draft a QB high.
Jamel Dean
Vet DT
Vet LB
Harris probably not, Cabinda probably
I’d have it at almost $41M with 40 bodies
We have 36 right now, we’ll sign another 10-15 future contracts in January and we’ll issue ERFA tenders to 7-8 players, by the start of UFA, we’ll have 53-60 players under contract.
Top 51 counts just in the offseason.
Sure, it can be. Going about it the way you are, everything is going to change as we sign the future contracts and ERFA’s and other players.
If you account for the 53 (or 51 players) now, you just subtract them as you sign a player. So I said we’d be $13.7M under, say we sign Swaggy for $3M, we’d be $11.7M under (he’d be replacing a $1M guy), sign Commish, we’d be $8.7M under (he’d replace a $1M guy).
Not a chance, they are projecting franchising him in 2025 or using his 2024 cap hit for negotiating an extension. No way they increase his 2024 cap hit.
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Chark is really the biggest X factor. If he’s re-signed to a longer term deal at a similar annual salary to what he just got on the open market, that changes things slightly. If they elect to let him go, and replace that spot with a rookie (feeling confident St Brown, Jamo, Reynolds, Raymond and rookie is good enough in this hypothetical)… that gives them a little more flexibility in my eyes.
With that said - the Lions have the ability to get spend a little more if they want too. It’s just accounting, it’s not like they “can’t” sign more than one or two “mid level FAs” (depend on your definition of mid level right?). It’s more a matter of how aggressive do they want to get? My guess is similar to OP above though - look to improve a little without taking on too much long term commitment.
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Question you want let big V go we going to play with one less OLman missing a starting ROG. They cost money.
Its easy to say sign whoever an what if they will not sign? Or what if they want more than you want to pay. Are you using a rookie as starting ROG ?
Deaths numbers are correct but you can add say 3 top end FA an likely not add for 2023 more than or 8 or 12 million to the cap for 2023.
You asked him questions an he told you answers he never said we couldn’t sign better its just at what cost an how far you push the cap hit down the road.
Example of what I mean we signed Romeo for 3 year $37 million contract with the Lions. $25 million of Okwara’s contract is guaranteed with $20 million fully guaranteed at signing.
Thats the main deal how they move money is different for every deal
ts Look at Cap hit year he signed **$4,500,000 now after that lots of contract wording but shows that deals can be done even with close to cap.
Frank Ragnow signed a four year contract with the Detroit Lions worth $54 million on May 6, 2021. Ragnow received $42 million in guarantees, $27.9 million of which is fully guaranteed at signing. Rangow received a $6 million signing bonus and will receive an $18 million option bonus in 2022.
rst years cap hit **$4,070,954 just another example
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If you cut Big V you take a dead cap of close to 6 million an save about same . Now you need to add cost of his replacement. If he is healthy Lions are better off reworking his deal. Remember the number your using now for cap includes him so if you add a year an reduce his base maybe two years you can reduce his cap hit.
He should be making as a starter an his ability a proven ability in 5 or 6 mil range. S if health add few years an reduce his base to bonus.
No dead money an have a starting OG for around 5 mill a season. If he is healthy works better than 6 mill dead cap to save 6 mil an not have a ROG as good an to get close to as good will cost 4 or 5 mil.
Look at everything not just what cap space you make look at dead cap an the cost of same quality replacement.
Also the teams know or have good idea what will happen in 2024 when rumors say cap will increase in a huge number. What you have is sometimes better to keep an work out new deal that pay close to same an not know what your getting for sure. I am sure doctors will be all over his health an other than team a doctors we have know idea what the back operation involved.
Fans here over react without all the facts I have maintained keep him if he is healthy an rework his deal. If not heathy then let him go , I don’t know his medical shape nor do any who keep worrying about his cap hit an have no idea who replaces him.
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I said this in another thread but what would a restructure of Goff’s final two years of his contract look like and how much cap space would it free up?
I think both sides would be open to it, would guarantee Goff the starting gig going into 2023 and possibly 2024 and also put guaranteed money in his pocket.
Think he has 20 million plus due in salary for the next two years. If we converted half of it into bonus then how much cap space would that free up?
Yep, and I’m a strong pass. We should be in line for a compensatory pick based on his new contract that even when off set by our FA signings should land us in the 5th or 6th round. There simply isn’t much out there with re to FA WR’s, so he’s going to make some money.
Projected cap space: $27m (36 players) (11th most in the NFL)
Rookie pool cost: ~$10m
Cost of filling the roster with vet min contracts: ~$10m
Effective cap space: ~$7m (13th most in the NFL)
Possible cap casualties:
- Goff ($20.5m cap saving to trade or cut)
- Brockers ($10m)
- R Okwara ($7.5m)
- Vaitai ($6m)
- C Harris ($4m)
Possible contract restructures / extensions:
- Goff ($30m cap hit in 2023, 2 years remaining)
- Decker ($19.3m, 2 years)
- Ragnow ($16.5m, 4 years)
- Walker ($11.3m, 2 years)
Brockers is surely gone so that takes us up to $17m. I think Charles Harris is also likely gone so make that $21m.
I think we can all agree that unless we can somehow pick up Mahomes or Allen on waivers, Goff isn’t being moved on. And as @DeadStroke says it’s unlikely his contract is reworked as it will just load up his cap hit and potential dead cap hit in 2024. At the moment making the decision to extend or move on from Goff in 2024 suits everyone.
Romeo Okwara and Vaitai are tough to call, I think the staff loves both of them but the nature of their injuries make them questionable to be brought back. Romeo has missed most of two seasons and the Achilles is very important for D-linemen, these last few games of this season feels like a good opportunity to evaluate whether he still has the same spring, burst and strength as he had pre-injury. Vaitai having a back injury is also a big worry for an O-lineman.
I don’t think they do anything with Decker’s contract, his cap hit is the same again in 2024 and then he has a void year costing $4m in 2025. Moving more money into those years makes little sense, and it’s also too early to think about an extension due to his age and the fact that Sewell will be up for renewal in 2024 and will command LT money, and paying both of them will not be cheap.
Walker is another one with pretty much the same cap hit in 2024 as 2023, and with him coming off a serious injury it makes no sense to push any of his money into 2024 when they might not want him around.
The one contract that is reworkable is Ragnow’s. You could take $9m of salary and spread it over 2024-2026 without making his cap number in those years too crazy ($16m, $17m, 19m). If Holmes wants to create space I think this is how he’ll do it.
So to answer the question, somewhere between $20m and $40m.
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Cap is rumored to increase by as much as 12m next year
I’ve always defended Vaitai but a guy that big with a back injury? No thanks. Save the $6.5m.
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Vatai loves it here and his teammates and coaches love having him. Obviously health is the determining factor but I think they void 2024 and cut his salary in half for 2023. Obviously Vatai has to agree to that, but I think that’s what happens.
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Yeah. If he’d cut his salary down then I’d take the shot ok the back. Romeo probably should take a haircut as well.
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Romeo has no reason to take a pay cut if he finishes this season strong, unless he wants to play with Julian as long as he can. You can tell Campbell really thinks highly of him as well.
I would love to somehow keep both Vatai and Romeo, but at half their current base salaries though.
I didn’t know you were a doctor or Lion told you exactly what the back injury was or how serious.
You save 6 mil an add 6 mil off the cap doesn’t sound like great deal unless he can’t play.
Maybe couple people who are doctors will say he is 100% an the back problem is fixed an he should have no problem. You still want to take 6 million dead cap hit or would you be interested in adding oid years to reduce cap hits for few years?
So let me get this right cut him take a cap hit of 6 mil dead cap an spent lets say 4 mil on a vet OG who could have sore back of iffy knees an just is not as good. So what we have is new ROG an 2 million extra with a 6 mil dead cap hit all this without hearing anything about his health got It
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Back issues never really go away. 3 people in my family have had back surgery and they feel worse. With Big V being a big guy im not sure he wont have issues again
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I understand I guess you trust doctors I am looking at if healthy avoiding a 6 mil dead cap or at very worse spread it over a couple of void years.
I am not sure i asked Dead but lets say we move 6 mil that would be dead cap to 2 years void years at 3 mil a year.
That reduces his cap hit if healthy by 6 mil in 2023 an if cut in 2024 when u look we would gain 9 mil rough numbers an dead cap of about 3 mil if he is cut.
This idea is based on if he is cut he could rework his deal or Lions could offer him couple void years to save in 2023 an he still gets his money in 2023
Now we know contracts involve a lot we don’t know . I can’t see him being against it an it will be based on how Lions feel about his play an health.
It would be No dead cap in 2023 an moving 6 mil to voiid years i used 2 could be 3 at 3 or 2 mil.
If he plays well in 2023 an stays healthy they could rework new deal also.
I just would like to avoid the 6 mil dead cap. I also would like to have a healthy starting ROG
I would be on board working a new cheaper deal. When healthy good player, but back issues should be a big issue
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I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once, Yote.
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