How much do we trust so called "Draft Experts"?

There are a billion stories out there about which teams will draft which player and so on. Look how often these guys say, “This QB out of (insert college) is a guaranteed top 10 pick this year and future Pro-Bowler”. Also look how often these guys are wrong.
Maybe Holmes and Dorsey see something in a later round pick? Dorsey went against the flock and snagged Mahomes.

Like the guys making the picks themselves, some are better than others. My favorite is probably Dane Brugler from the Athletic, but I also like the PFF guys cause their scores are based on a statistical process (though it causes them to miss on out of nowhere guys like McLaurin). I like Daniel Jeremiah enough, not for his own evaluations necessarily but because he has his finger on the pulse of what the GMs/scouts actually think. Same is true of Riddick. Lance Zierlein is really good for OL but struggles elsewhere.

Kiper and especially McShay are trash. Matt Miller too. I don’t even listen to them.


Yeah, the flashy “specialists” like Kiper, McShay just follow a script I think and say things to get people to click on them. PFF is def one to watch. Imma have to check out Brugler and Jeremiah