Spoiler alert! Bob Quin has drafted only 1 Pro Bowler out of his 34 (a 3% hit rate so far). But what’s more interesting is seeing how other GMs do at picking pro-bowl-caliber talent. The narrator says 10% is a good hit rate.
Oh, and I did the (too-much-time-at-home) work of looking up Martin Mayhew’s hit rate as Lions GM. He’s had 7 pro-bowlers in 53 picks, a surprising 13%.
Stafford, Suh, Ansah, Slay, Guard Larry Warford (w/Saints), Eric Ebron (w/Colts), Quandre Diggs (w/Seattle) this past season he went as an alternate to my shock and dismay. It’s also interesting that they’re all at different positions and never all played on the same team.
I took this to mean Mayhew was a better drafter than we thought, but the coaches that he chose didn’t maximize player potential. You might see it differently. Apparently coaches matter across the league when you look at who actually finds top talent and how their teams finish each year.
While Pro Bowlers drafted is certainly an objective, and therefore inarguable, measurement, I think one can argue about its applicability as a metric for overall draft performance of a GM.
There’s error in both directions; high draft picks are more likely to hit, but playing on a good team is more likely to get a player onto a Pro Bowl roster. The measurement also doesn’t take into account the difference between a not-in-the-league-after-one-year pick and a solid starter.
All in all, though, I agree with the outcome. I don’t think Mayhew was nearly as bad as most posters do. I think he was solid. People here just get too wrapped up in their own “scouting” and too emotionally invested (or divested) in particular draft picks.
Another thing to consider is that although Mayhew was drafting higher, he also took over a much worse team, maybe the worst team of all time in fact. Im not saying he was perfect, but he had a lot of hits. Also, although Levy wasnt a pro bowler, he had a 2 year run where he absolutely played at a pro bowl level. His problem was they made him change positions like 3 times and then when he finally got good at his position, A FISH BIT HIS PRIVATES OFF, or so the legends say.
His hit rate was heavily screwed by his early draft status. Also Mayhew loved to gamble. He took a lot of risky picks. Some paid off and some did not. Alot of his 2nd round picks busted.
But guys like Ebron, Ziggy, made the pro bowl but haven’t really been considered good picks either.
I did a study just before Mayhew was fired. Comparing his drafting years to other GM’s in the same time frame. I did all 32 teams. The study was based on two things. Pro bowlers and players that stuck around long enough to get a second contract.
Mayhew ranked slightly below average in PB talent. (At the time) since then Warford, Slay, and Ebron have made the PB. However he was second worst in the NFL at drafting players who stuck. (Who got a second contract) Only TB was worse than him. Mathews biggest issue was he gambled too much. He also over drafted players who had exceptional physical traits.
Where Mayhew did well in my opinion was in free agency.
This has been my biggest issue with BQ. I’ve been making this argument for a year now. I acknowledge that it’s still too early to tell but a lot of his picks look like they will be average or below average NFL players.
No one can deny that the team has less top shelf talent today than it did when BQ took over.
BQ is the opposite of Mayhew. He plays his picks too safe. For example: Last year he was drafting top 10 and took a TE instead of a more impactful (yet riskier) player.
However even some of his safer picks like J. Davis have yet to produce even average results. I think year is a bust or boom year for Davis.
We have to keep in mind that most picks don’t truly develop until year 3 or after. Think Slay … he didn’t look to good his first two seasons.
I think Decker, Davis, TJ, K.J., and a few other picks have the talent to be pro bowlers. Doesn’t mean they will be.
Personally I think BQ, has been underwhelming as a GM
Great analysis Air, as usual. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not longing for the salad days of Mayhew lol, but he does seem to be the best of a very bad bunch. It’s like hanging a “we made the playoffs” banner, but no one would actually do that.
Oh just want to add, Mayhew had “the cap wizard” Lewand. Also the misfortune of having the final three years of top of the draft pics (CJ, Stafford, and Suh) on the team without a rookie salary cap. I think they were kinda screwed no matter what, but didn’t help matters by constantly restructuring those guys and kicking the can down the road. I still think that’s on Mayhew because normally I don’t think GM is split into a two headed beast like Mayhew and Lewand were, but maybe I’m wrong on that.
I actually always thought Mayhew brought in very solid players through the draft. He had a few big whiffs, but most gm’s do. I typically point to the rosters Mayhew built when debating with other posters about whether or not Stafford has ever had a strong enough supporting cast to be successful.
Mayhew vs Quinn
Definitely Quinn has been more conservative— probably overly conservative
He’s trying to build depth, which I applaud, but it hasn’t come together yet
Mayhew had some top line talent but was thin after that
Obviously he was handicapped by the big three contracts — but he and Lewand totally mishandled Suh — those restructuring moves were bad — most were calling Lewand a financial genius— only myself and a couple others were saying it was bad financial management
Not really. So few of his players from round 2-7 stuck in the NFL.
I firmly believe his first round picks could have been made by an average NFL fan. However GM’s have to go by what their coach and scouting dept suggests. Rumor was Mayhew and Schwartz worked well together their first year but then friction rose up after and Mayhew started to force players on Schwartz. If you look at what was his best draft it was his first one. Then his second best draft was his first one with Jim Caldwell… I know Millen was in Mathews ear. Millen said that his biggest mistake was listening to the voices in the room and if he could go back he would have drafted the players he wanted. (Which clearly shows the problem) I think Mayhew always had that in his ear. Trust your own gut… it’s very important that GM’s and HC’s are in the same page. We didn’t have that under Mayhew and Millen and it showed. There clearly was a disconnect between Mayhew and his HC. Ultimately I think this was his undoing.