If you visit the work of our friends at Over the Cap, it paints a pretty interesting picture of our current roster, salary cap, etc…
Right now our top 6 contracts are Goff, Decker, Ragnow, Romeo, Big V, and Okudah… As of right now 2 of them aren’t under contract next year, and Big V is very unlikely to be here next year at his current price… Even with Big V counting 12.5M next year we are still projected to have 84MM in space and and we can assume about 26MM in 2024 hits between the 23’ and 24’ draft classes… That would leave us 60MM… and put nearly 40 guys under contract… So we all know we have plenty next year, and we have nobody but J Jackson and Okudah (of note) coming due…
The really interest part is how our cap looks right now, and I’d invite Dead or Phunny to correct me anywhere I messing this up… BUT
We already have a full 51 counted against the cap, and that is bumping guys like Six Deuce and Awosia off the roster alreayd…
We need to free up 8 spots in the top 51 for our draft class, and my best guess is… That moves McCain, Jefferson, Dorsey, Breeze, Lucas, Rodriguez, Mitchell, and Pittman off the 51 for now… Moving those guys down frees up 7.2MM which covers half the projected 14.5MM needed to sign our currently slated draft picks…
OUR CURRENT TOP 51- $197,884,172… We need the different between the 14.5MM for the draft class, and the bottom 8 contracts that will falloff- give or take (some of the late draft picks maybe be outside the 51 but close enough)…
By my count we should have about $206,000,000 spent after signing our draft class, and moving 8 contracts down…
We don’t have the G Glasgow details yet, but we can presume it’s likely a 3M cap hit tops (up to 4.5M 1 year deal) and another 990K contract will slide off, so GG will steal another 2M from the above number putting us at $208,000,0000
This still have us paying old freight for Romeo and Big V, which I can’t see why on earth we would? I see a restructure that gains us 3MM plus for 2023, and I can’t imagine we don’t see a reduction in pay of at least 1-2M for Romeo too?
Either way… We currently have 17MM Plus to bring into 2024- tons of money in 2024- and our two biggest contract coming due in 2025 (Goff and Decker)…
So are we making room for Goff extension? Are we making room to sign one more impact player like CGJ, Chark, Wagner, S Griffin? Are we going to add 2-3 more guys like Gaines or Wormley and Rock Ya Sin?
If we were planning on doing this, wouldn’t we have done it by now?
I really think we’re done this year.
We’ve already added 2 corners, we don’t really value linebackers, and we probably don’t want to spend on an IDL contract especially now that all the top names are gone.
I’d be happy with a safety, a backup QB and bringing back Chark. Plus cheaper moves like re-signing Jackson and Josh woods. We also need a kicker and I have no idea what route the lions will take with this one.
I believe we free up another 8mil or so in pays cuts for Romeo and Big V.
Moseley and Glasgow’s contracts have yet to be added as well. I am still hoping Chark returns at around 10mil per year.
I am hoping we resign Chark yet, and sign John Johnson for cheap (1 year 3-4mil). I think we add a veteran DT like Gaines as well for cheap (2 years, 7mil). I would absolutely love Bobby Wagner, but I think the only move we make an LBer in FA is resigning Josh Woods.
I think we could easily add those three
Chark 3 years 30mil, year 1 cap hit 4mil
Gaines 2 years 7mil, year 1 cap hit 2.5mil
John Johnson 1 year, 4mil, year 1 cap hit 2.5mil (add void year)
If we save 8mil from Romeo and Big V pay cuts we would be sitting around 13-14mil in cap space for draft picks, practice squad and in season moves. May need to restructure Decker/Ragnow for a couple mil yet.
Depending on how things pan out on draft night if Ioniddas or A’Shawn are around maybe they throw a 1 year deal (Holmes seems to like those) to address run defense.
I also think we see another piece for offensive line depth.
I think the Lions will draft a QB in the late 2nd or 3rd round and if they don’t get someone they like, we’ll see a QB signing obviously.
I’d love to see LB addressed and invested in but I don’t think it happens.
Glasgow and Moseley haven’t been accounted for by OTC yet. They’ll count at least $7m against this year’s cap.
Unless something happens with Romeo and Vaitai’s deals I don’t expect any more significant signings. There will be a few vet min guys who won’t change the cap scenario but I think meaningful spending is done.
I think we’re in a good spot. There are no gaping holes in the starting 11s, certainly plenty of positions that can be upgraded but overall it feels like the team is well stocked with NFL calibre players at every position, with solid depth pieces too. Holmes can go BPA all the way through the draft, taking guys who can either upgrade current starters or replace them in the long-term. QB2 and K are the biggest needs right now, but there are plenty of options for both.
Edit - Badgeley has resigned, so that fills one of the most immediate needs, although I expect another kicker or two will be brought in to compete in camp.
Seems that CJ Gardner Johnson rumors are starting to pick up some steam. Some people in here will lose their shit if it happens. That will be funny to watch in real time. He is a versatile player playing safety and cornerback.
I thought everyone in here pretty much universally loved the guy? I know he was on a lot of people’s wish lists. I didn’t think he’d be a target since he might not pass our no-turds test, but if anyone would know it would be Dan and AG from their time together in NO.
