I’m on the Record… I encourage everyone to as well

I have faith in Holmes, and I am expecting to come away from this off-season excited about our haul…

Just in case Brad and I are on different pages (lol), I’m locking in what I think we should (different than predicting what we will do).

Please share your thoughts on mine, and share yours. Let’s see how these predictions and suggestions age….

  • I think right now is where the roster Tetris begins. The guys we intend to resign will impact our holes in FA. The guys we may wish to “target” in the draft will impact free agency and visa versa.

A) I am all in on keeping T Walker, E Brown, J Reynolds, M Nelson, and JRM. I have zero interest in watching more homegrown talent leave after their first or second contract, and thrive elsewhere. Let’s end the Tomlinson, Van Noy, warford , Reiff, Glasgow, Slay, Diggs, nonsense now!! Paying up for guys like Wagner, Harmon, Flowers, Lang, Trufant, etc after letting our own guys walk for similar money has always pissed me off…

  • Walker- 4 years 26M (12M G)
  • Reynolds- 2 years 6M (3.5M G)
  • E Brown- 3 years 10am (5M G)
  • Nelson- 2 years 4M (2.5M G)
  • JRM- 3 years 7M (3M G)

The collective would cost us 12.5M against the cap in 22’

Free Agency-

  • Marcus Williams 4 years 58M and worth every penny. Splits the deep middle with Walker in 2 high, or roams centerfield. We get him in his prime as a top 4-5 FS in the league with coaching and system familiarity.

  • JuJu- 3 years 30M (10M G) they could escalate to 3 years 40M (18M G) with performance, playing time, etc bonuses. Another USC guy who blocks ferociously at WR. He gets open and gets RAC. He plays strong and blocks. He’s a bit quirky, but DC can handle it.

  • Emmanuel Ogbah- 3 yrs 27M (13M G) big edge setting DE who can score 7-9 sacks and hold up at point of attack.

  • collective 24M cap hits 22’

Pre Draft Defense depth chart-

Ogbah/Bryant
McNeill/Penisini
Levi O/Brockers
Romeo/Julian O

Barnes/Julian O
???
JRM/J Woods

AO/Okudah
Iffy/Jacobs/Parker
M Williams/W Harris
T Walker/W Harris

This defense needs a field general and potentially some DL pop from either interior power or DE speed…

  • I’d like to see 3 front 7 players in our first 6 picks

Offense Depth Chart

Goff/??
Swift/J Will/??

??
St Brown/Reynolds
Juju/Cephus

Hock/??

Decker/Nelson
Jackson/Kraemer
Rags/E Brown
Big V/E Brown
Sewell/Nelson

So I need 4 draft picks on offense too…

DRAFT PLAN- trade down, trade down, trade down!!!

Just like the Rams devalued draft picks for players, I’d like to see Holmes devalue high picks for quantity.

A bit of Moneyball here. Get 2 guys capable of 11 sacks solid overall play, vs one we hope gets 11 sacks and a liability somewhere else. AKA- give me Jermaine Johnson and Travis Jones/Wyatt vs Hutch and a JAG at DT…

I think we can peel a #4 and a 2nd from the Jets for the #2, but I’m about positive we can grab #5 and then do the same with Denver or Washington sending a 2nd and 4th to move up to #5

  1. Detroit (trades with NYG, Den netting us two 2nds and a 4th)- Jermaine Johnson, Trayvon Walker

  2. Detroit (trades #32 and #66 to New England for #21)- D Lloyd him running 4.7 slides him down, plays faster and tested bigger but as athletic as D Leonard…

  3. Detroit - D Wyatt or Travis Jones

  4. Detroit- K Walker- that 4.37 speed validated his tape. He breaks tackles, makes guys miss, and makes house calls. He and Swift are lighting and lighting.

  5. C Watson/A Pierce/S Moore- speed demon to take too off.

  6. J Ferguson- TE

  7. project backup QB

Get OL depth late

Walker/J Johnson
Lloyd
Wyatt/T Jones

  • 3 starters defensive front 7!

K Walker
C Watson etc
J Ferguson

Goff
Walker/Swift

Watson
Juju
St Brown

Hock/Ferguson

OL same-

T Walker/Romeo
Wyatt/Levi O
McNeill/Brockers
Ogbah/Bryant

J Okwara/Barnes
Lloyd/Barnes
JRM/J Woods

AO/Okudah
Iffy/Jacob’s/Parker
T Walker/Harris
M Williams/Harris

Between Romeo, Ogbah, Wyatt, and Walker/Johnson I think we add 20 sacks at least in 2022… we lose 9 from Harris and Flowere departures netting about 11. I think we get a net 5 from Lloyd, Barnes, and JO vs what linebackers did last year. Putting us around #12-14 in sacks in 2022…

I think adding Juju, Walker, Watson, and Ferguson on offense would give Goff similar weapons to what he had in LA in 17-18’

11-6

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I’d be fine with signing all 5 of our FAs you listed at those prices. Signing Marcus Williams for 4 years at 58M would be great, but I don’t think we’ll get that discount despite the connections with DC and AG. I think Brad will be frugal again this year and not do any splash spending in FA.

I’d rather sign our FA Charles Harris than Ogbah and I’d rather draft two receivers than sign JuJu. I’d steer clear of D Lloyd, drafting one of the many faster, lighter LBs while investing early for Brockers replacement.

Me too.

Fair enough-

Maybe it takes 5 years and 75M for Williams to feels like the #4 paid safety in the league…. Basically a fake 5th year at 18M….

I don’t know why so many hate JuJu- he was in a weird spot. The team imploded around him with Lev and AB- then D Johnson, J Wash, Claypool were all taken early, but they didn’t have a QB capable of pleasing that many targets.

The kid is 25 years old, built like a truck, blocks like a TE, and has something to prove.

St Brown- 120
JuJu- 110
Hock- 100
C Watson- ?? 70
J Reynolds- 60
Cephus- 60
Swift- 60

That’s 580 attempts.

Last year we had 593 without many guys to throw to

So let’s add K Walker, J Ferguson, and J Will to the above with 30, 25, 15 targets respectively- and that’s 70 more

I think that’s a pretty interesting group.

Ferguson and Hock are big targets that can block.
St Brown and JuJu are 2 of the better blocking WRs

Hock, Watson, Ferguson, all 6’4 plus

Cephus and Reynolds are 6’2 plus

Walker and Watson have sub 4.39 speed! Swift 4.43

That is lots of big, fast, tall, young guys who can block.

Typically, I’m a BPA kind of guy, when it comes to the draft.
This year, or should I say, after last season, we have clear needs.
I will be very disappointed if we don’t address,

  1. Edge
  2. WR
  3. Safety
    Not necessarily in the order, but yes, with the first 3 picks.
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I think it is very possible Evan Brown will get an offer to compete for a starting Center position elsewhere.
If he does, he will likely be moving on to another team.

I don’t doubt that he will if we don’t put a 2nd round tender on him.

Dave Birkett suggested a 2nd round tender for him a while back. It would give Brown a nice raise to $4M, preserve his FA for 2023, and reward the Lions with a 2nd round pick if another team offers him a multiyear contract for more–if the article below is accurate.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/lions-free-agent-profiles-retaining-evan-brown-may-be-tough/ar-AAUwz8n

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I can’t keep up with that guy’s free agency status.

I am fairly certain it was established he would be a UFA on a previous thread here… and SPOTRAC still shows him as a UFA… but I see OTC.com and several other articles say he is a RFA.

Maybe there was debate about whether a previous season counted as an accrued year under the CBA… but I guess we’ll see soon enough.

I’d tender him for sure… if he is a RFA… and that should keep him off the market.
No reason to pinch a few meager pennies on a developing OL player.

I’d be more interested in seeing your draft without all the trades, iow, offer a more realistic glimpse of your vision similar to the FA & resignings list you offered.

Devin Lloyd is going to fall if you believe what was being said at the combine. Interestingly enough, I’ve heard Detroit specifically should and would pass on him even if he is there at 32.

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I’m curious as to why he would fall?

His workout numbers wouldn’t scare anyone off…

https://twitter.com/JFurKSL/status/1500296248615530496?s=20&t=N7mNvF8r1WA2pn-Z9UKG3Q

There is good depth at LB, so that is the only thing I see as a possible reason.

I like this posy Lyonfan01. I like a lot of your thoughts. Here are my thoughts (I will not weigh in on contracts overall):

Concerning our own free agents:

  1. Re-sign Safety Tracy Walker. I simply think we can win with a guy like this if we have players in other positions. His agent is gonna have to make him understand what a reasonable deal looks like for him.
  2. Re-sign Charles harris. He had success here. A reasonable offer gets a deal done.
  3. Re-sign WR Josh Reynolds for cheap.
  4. Re-sign Jalen Reeves maybin and make him your weakside outside LBer. Jalen has been out-of-position his whole time in Detroit.
  5. I am re-signg C Evan Brown.
  6. I am Re-signing Matt Nelson too.

I will keep Trey Flowers too. I think Holmes finds a way to lower his cap # but this guy is a player.
I am also opening up negotiations concerning CB AO.

In terms of free agency my thoughts are modest. Here is what I expect and support (not in any order):

  1. WR James Washington. I think we will do a Golden Tate-type deal here and James becomes a fan favorite soon.
  2. I think we balance our young DL with DT Akiem Hicks.
  3. Maybe our most important free agent…Bics safety Jordan Whitehead. 25 in a couple days.

No blockbuster deals. I have been pimping for a free agent LBer but I think the Lions will target a guy n the 2nd or 3rd rd. to be our new MLBer. I think Barnes becomes the strongside guy swapping time with Julian Okwara. If necessary I may use Barnes in the middle too depending on the draft.

In terms of the draft DL is not longer a weakness with my plan. Keeping Flowers and keeping Charles Harris. Adding DT Hicks. Keeping what we already had. But if I can I am adding Aiden Hutchinson and I am not overthinking that. I am adding to the DL and I love that Flowers can now flex back inside and help at DT and Hicks will help. Brockers will be DL depth too and I like that.

From there I am balancing WR V. BPA V. LBer

With the Rams pick I want a LBer but I’m not sure one will be there with our pick SO…I want the best starter I can get. I think the Lions end up going CB late rd. 1 and I think that moves turns out brilliant as we don’t have to worry about Okudah or our young CBs being healthy and we will be able to roll maybe 6 CBs with real NFL talent. I am likely drafting Taiir Elam or Roger McCreary. I think McCreary is the guy in my book.

My guess is the Lions want WR David Bell and I am drafting him in rd. 2.

With that in mind I round out the defense with LBer value in rd. 3 and I draft Chad Muma or a Brian Asamosa if he falls that far.

If the Lions get a late third rd. comp pick I am looking at TE, LBer, Safety and RB.

What I like out of the article, as you noted if it’s an accurate article, is we have the ability to match or beat the amount another team may offer him…

So the lions could simply go with the “Original amount tendered” too and simply decide to match or not match any offers higher than that ….

This will neat to see what they do

As I understand it, if the Lions designate him as “Original amount tendered”, another team could sign Brown to a multi-year contract for starter money and we most likely wouldn’t match it. In that case, we get nothing in return.

If the Lions designate him “2nd round tender”, another team could sign Brown to a contract we won’t match, but in this case, we would get a 2nd round pick in return.

By using the “2nd round tender” we would get Brown for another year at about $4M, and when he signs next year with another team, he would tip the compensatory scale in our favor.

So I say…

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Ahhhhh, I am no longer blind! :upside_down_face:

You did a lot of work I don’t think we are going to be that active in FA…I think they will resign few you said. I doubt the resign Harris unless they move away from Hutch.

I would be super happy to resign * Walker- 4 years 26M (12M G)

  • Reynolds- 2 years 6M (3.5M G)
  • E Brown- 3 years 10am (5M G)

Marcus Williams would be my main FA signing.

You can get few Vets after draft on the cheap. Plus who knows a couple UDFA

Now you have safety in very good shape Walker ,Williams Harris at least for year an we can add one in draft.
WR heading to draft Reynolds Cephus Brown an 2 in Draft both will be high speed WR with one having height example
George Pickens Skyy Moore Now you can get a vet at cuts or maybe find a gem in UDFA

who knows after year on ST Mc Kinley ESPN Javon McKinley WR Senior 6-1¾, 215 lbs Notre Dame Scouts Grade Position Rank Overall Rank Arm Length 33" Hand Size 9-3/4" 40 -YD Dash 4.6 He had slow start after having problems an went undrafted but Lions kept him I think he just may have matured after personal problems an his talent could show this season

I like to get in first 3 rds two WR 2 LB;s an a Edge maybe a CB

Idea this season is again control cap spend for top end player. Get top end players with first 3 pick for sure an resign those who showed last season if possible .

we can use later rds to move around draft also we can trade down an still get a quality edge player with right value offer to move.

OK, now do it all over again but with only 1 trade. Look, you went thru a lot of work to come up with something that has no chance of happening. Why not actually do it with a hint of probability involved.

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It is surprising to me as well, I’m asking around, haven’t gotten a concrete answer yet. I’ll pass it along when I find out.

Are you sure?
How do you know what you don’t know?
You see?:rofl:

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I don’t believe trading down is fairy tale. Not if we put our #2 on sale.

Here is my take- each year the preseason rankings, the mocks, the simulators, the forum posts get “more” and “earlier.” At this stage there is little that could be done to radically change the top 3-5 overall rankings, but after news of how teams feel about guys, and free agency and pro days factor in, then all will change.

If Denver and Carolina do nothing at QB, they could choose to trade up if one QB catches media fire. Murray and Baker did.

If forced to draft at #2

Hutch
D Wyatt or Travis Jones
C Harris
Pickens
Ferguson

FA-

Marcus Williams
JuJu
FA LB

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I don’t think trading down is a fairy tale either, but I think trading down as many x as you did is a fairy tale and taking any RB in this draft in the first makes it more so.

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