I predict 7 plus wins in 2021

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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I could easily throw out 8-9 or even 10-7 as I can see it being possible, but I truly believe in a 7 win floor.

Why?

I think Goff was a better college QB than Stafford. I think he was the more sought after prospect coming out as a team traded up big in a loaded draft class for him. I think many forget how divided fans were between A Curry, J Smith, and Butt Fumble- Stafford was ranked #5-7 overall prospect in every ranking, but our need and positional value made him a logical choice.

I know Goff has been a better Pro and winner thus far through 5 years in NFL. I know this will get the Stafford fan boys in a twit, but multiple pro bowls, multiple 100 rating seasons, and multiple playoff wins are all things Goff has done in 5 years and Stafford has not in. “12!”

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Does anyone question this FACT?

Decker- fully healthy, entering his prime, coming off his best season, and has most continuity he’s had next to him with Jackson and Ragnow along the left side with him. I bet the Buckeye connection between he and Jackson helps too.

Jackson- solid rookie year and improved the whole way. He’s sandwiched between a borderline pro bowl and a budding All Pro

Ragnow- best center in league for next 4-6 years.

Big V- bad signing, but has to know it’s make or break and now he’s back to his natural position and not part of a revolving door on the right side. Now he’s sandwiched between an All Pro center and what many expect to be a pro bowl RT

Sewell- size, power, athleticism down field. Can you imagine screens with Sewell and Hock blocking downfield!

  • we easily have the best OL the Lions have had since 1990!

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Swift had 10 tds 900 total yards in 13 games. Consider he had 114 total yards and no tds the first 3 weeks and oddly missed 3 games with a concussion during the firings etc. so in the 10 games he actually got articulated in he had about 80 yards and 1 td per game.

Combine him with a perfect compliment in J Williams. Young, not too much wear and tear, and seemed to relish and cheer for a timeshare with AJones in GB.

Kerryon and Jermar Jefferson- I predict either Kerryon is done and getting cut, or he beats out Jefferson this year and Jefferson goes to PS. Many quietly like Jefferson as a really productive sleeper. Either way we will have as decent RB

  • that and all will be running behind a cohesive and talented OL

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TE- what else is there to say? Hock is an ascending pro bowler that is about to play with a more accurate passer who throws a more catchable ball. Especially seems and short to middle range passes, Goffs touch and hint less zip will help guys run after the catch and hold onto the ball better in my opinion.

Hill is a great inline blocker and could be an H Back in short yardage. Clearly defined role vs us forcing James onto field in order to justify his salary.

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Trey Flowers healthy vs missing 11 starts last year.

Romeo Okwara is back with his brother, happy with his contract (took a hometown discount) and coming off top 10 sack and pressure season despite very few pass rush scenarios given how infrequently we caused 3rd and long.

M Brockers- anyone want to advocate from skill, leadership and athleticism he’s not a MASSIVE upgrade over snacks in 19’ or Shelton in 20’? He’s the best DT we’ve had done 18’ Snacks without a doubt.

L Onzuwurike/A McNeill- I truly expect both to massively outperform N Williams and Penisini-

Williams/Penisini- Williams pay cut and added competition could produce the incentive to play like he did in Chicago in 2019. The added talent around him, and time to improve as a pro could help Penisini be more effective in less snaps than he was when forced into duty last year.

C Harris and J Okwara- these are new faces to our team. A former first rounder who had 3 sacks last year in 27% snap share. He was drafted in a Miami right as they started burning the team down to rebuild. J Okwara was the more highly recruited and athletic brother. Let’s hope he’s 75% as good as his bro Romeo. I could see a combined 6 sacks here easily.

Bottom line- we have a better scheme, better leadership, and DL coach was there coaching Yannick, Fowler, M Jackson, and Campbell as the DC when they almost made the SB a few years ago.

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2020-
Jarrad Davis was okay in his 25% snap count
Tavaii was literally as bad as you can get at 52%
Collins was decent to good but missed 2 games
C Jones another 40s PFF guy with 50% snaps

2021-
Collins hoping same player better scheme?

Anzalone played similarly to Davis and played higher snap percentage while being selected for this scheme

JRM- a guy once expected to be a 2nd round pick. He had 10 tackles in a 3% snap count and a north of 50pff. As a rookie (coming off injury mind you) he had north of a 68 PFF rating in 22% snaps. Over a full season he’d have projected around 90 tackles, 2-3 sacks etc. it’s interesting he was one of the first guys DC and Holmes targeted and signed. AT 2.5M AND 1.75M I THINK THEY EXPECT EITHER JRM OR ANZALONE TO BE A SOLID FULL TIME STARTER.

Then add in Shaun Deion Hamilton and rookie Derrick Barnes. Both 235 pound plus guys with some speed, both proved decent blitz wrs in college as well. Hamilton has had a few sacks in NFL and quite a few tackles given modest snap share.

  • I could see us adding one more veteran LB cheap after next round of cuts too…

MY POINT IS OUR SCHEME WILL BE BETTER PERIOD. EVEN IF WE DONT HAVE ONE, OUR CULTURE WAS SO NEGATIVE GUYS WANTED TO LEAVE. IM BETTING HALF OUR INJUROES LAST YEAR WERE GUYS WHO WERENT RISKING THEIR BODIES ON THST SINKING SHIP

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The secondary is the most interesting.

Walker was an 89 and 73 PFF player his first 2 years, then came the dumpster fire. Fatty Patty cast away Slay and Diggs and brought in Harmon and Trufant. Needless to say we took massive backwards strides with BOTH!

Okudah was a unanimously supported player as a top 5-7 overall pick at CB, and labeled the best in years. Combine that with the regression from guys like Walker and I’m putting my money on a huge rebound from Okudah this year under Glenn

I see Walker and Okudah playing much closer to Lattimore and M Jenkins that they played last year.

  • Dunbar has proven a stud as recently as 2019. He’ll even in an injured abs down year last year he was better than Trufant 38.2, or Coleman 47 PFF…

I will take Okudah, AO and Dunbar on a prove it deal under Glenn all day over what we had last year!

Lastly- I predict we either see a FS signing like Tre Boston or M Hooker to supplement Harris and Walker, OR I SEE MELIFONWU POSSUBLY MOVING TO FS! RANGY KID AT 6’2” plus and 205 with 4.4 speed and ball skills- hmmm…

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SO HERE WE ARE- yes our WR room is bad.

HOWEVER-

M Jones- 978
Ammendola- 602
Cephus- 349
Golladay- 338
Hall- 290
Sanu- 178

Total- 2,740 yards WR

Hock- 720
James- 129
H Bryant- 44

Total- 893 yards TE

Swift- 357
AP- 101
Kerryon- 187

Total- 635 yards RB

  • there are your 4,200 plus yards-

NOW CONSIDER AMMENDOLA, KG, M JONES, AP, HALL AND SANU WERE ALL ON LAST YEAR OF THEIR CONTRACTS IN 20’…

Projections-

Hock- 875 yards
J Hill- 170 yards
TE3- 80 yards
Total TE- 1,125 yards

Swift- 500 yards
J Williams- 250 yards
Kerryon/RB3- 150 yards
Total RB- 900 yards

Tyrell Williams- 650 yards
B Perriman- 550 yards
Q Cephus- 500 yards
Amon-Ra- 400 yards
WR5- (Surratt/Allison/FA)- 200 yards

Total 2300 yards WR

I see 4,300 yards passing behind this OL with an improved run game.

The 1800 yards we got from M Jones, KG and Ammendola won’t be as hard to replace as people think.

PS- I wouldn’t rule out trading a pick for a WR1 or even a decent cap cut signing. Golden Tate the adult has the juice left to replace Ammendola.

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l like a lot of what you’ve said her.
With coach Dan, I think a major factor is…“It’s not what you do, it’s how you do it.”
People put a lot of emphasis on stats.
Let’s say there are 2 LBs that both get a lot of tackles. One is semi-gently bringing his man down with good technique. The other is trying to collapse the lungs of every person he comes into contact with (from the other team).
OL … Blocking for the RB to create the proper hole, so your running back can gain 5 yards
OR
Destroying your opponent, so he doesn’t destroy your brother (the RB). Going to war and running over them to win the fistfight that you and your brothers are involved in?

I love the psychology of this stuff. Last year, we were SO emotionally, phycologically and physically passive. None of that will be the case, this year.
Tackling a RB that is tripping off balance through the line VS a RB that is coming through clean and delivering a hit that shakes your MF’n bones? Over…and over…and over again.

Welcome to Dan Campbell world.

Appreciate and agree with most of what you put together. I do see things through a different lens than most, and have done my best to communicate to you what that looks like, in my book.

Strategy and statistics are great. Let’s go win the ■■■■■■■ fist fight!

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Could you imagine if Rodgers calls the Packs bluff and doesn’t play this year?
Dalton and Fields both suck it up this year on the field?
The Vikings fall apart like they did last season?

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I want Rodgers to suffer professionally (I’m okay with him growing through his arrogance and having a good life as a human).
I would be happier if his suffering was OUR fault. :wink:
I want just to make him suck, when he plays against us. Same w/the Chicago QBs.

Teams are gonna hate playing against us. It’s like a cage fighter that has to fight Nate Diaz. You can’t knock him out. You can “win,” but you really dont’ win…he keeps coming, and coming, and coming, until you wear down, and the fight that you initially looked to be winning starts to tip the other direction. You become physically and emotionally worn out. Your faith starts to wane, and your victory doesn’t matter as much as it used to as your soul starts to be taken from you, hit by hit, take down by takedown, minute by minute. You find yourself in deeper water than you’ve ever been in, but that’s where he LIVES.

This is Dan Campbell world. These people are coming to play football. We are bringing a fist fight.
Wait until the entire roster is Dan’s guys. This is gonna be fun.

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It all comes down to how well our defense plays. We can’t take full advantage of our line and running game if we’re giving up 30 points per game, we’ll have to throw more then. It’s actually what happened a lot to the Chargers last year, Herbert had to pass a lot more than Lynn wanted him to.

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I think he has been embarrassed by the Packers. I have never understood the Packers philosophy towards Rodgers. You get one of the 3 greatest QBs of all time and you never give him any weapons and you treat him like he’s some bottom tier guy.
The Packers are a 4 or 5 win team with Love as their QB.

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I actually like our defense outside of one safety spot. But I’m more bullish on Julian, el Jefe and Barnes than most are on here. Our DL is no really strong. We have to fill that safety hole. If so with growth our secondary can be solid as well. LBer room is still just meh but that’s better than recent years.

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The Packers do have a top wr and a top rb in the nfl… not to mention a good offensive line. So they’ve given him stuff to work with, they just did it without using 1st rounders. Which is a big reason they are a 13-3 team.

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I think the main thing we have to find out is what we really have on the defensive side of the ball. It’s so hard to gauge any of the players just based on scheme alone. We played a run and chase defense that was pathetic to watch. I’m really interested to see what we have. Our secondary could be a strength with JO and AO, I’m anxious to see what good coaching and positive vibes can do to this roster.

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Ok @Lyonfan1 I get your analysis of the roster. One question though, where do those 7+ wins come from on the schedule?

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I don’t disagree necessarily (I really like Barnes and Okwara too), but it’s still a pretty big unknown. It’s a unit that was objectionably bad last year and we’re returning quite a few pieces. Yes, we’ve added to it and hopefully our new staff gets better production out of our holdovers, but I won’t count on that out of hand. I have hope at least which is nice.

We may very well have a good DL, but I remember all too well those Schwartz teams where the DL was good but the back 7 was so bad offenses just threw quick hitters all game long. I like our CB room a lot now but they still need to show the improvement I’m hoping for from them.

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Well there were things missing last year. Now virtually our entire LB room can cover. Las year it was one guy. Last year we were entirely dependent on Rokwara for pass rush. This year we should have four to five guys that can bring it. Our coverage unit should be better with added experience and better coaching.

And then there is the effect of getting rid of Patricia’s scheme.

I’m not predicting that we’ll be particularly great on either side of the football but a 6-7 win team that features 20th ish ranked units on both side of the ball seems both attainable and a great stepping stone achievement.

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My hunch is we have some games where we look pretty good defenisively and some games where we get steamrolled. How many of each is the question. I don’t think we’ll be overly consistent, but that’s OK and to be expected from a new staff/scheme etc… Just show improvement as the year goes along, like the Giants last year or the Dolphins the year before that.

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I think we’ll be susceptible over the middle. Other teams will have to get rid of the ball more quickly than they have in the past. LBs in coverage may be a weakness again, this year…and the timing routes and screen game may still tear us up.

Look for us to get torched by underneath routes.

Soon, we will have better tackling secondary and LBs. This D could potentially give up a lot of points.

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I think we’re more akin to the Giants of last year than the Dolphins of ‘19.

Those Dolphins vastly overachieved to get those five wins IMO.

The difference between us and the ‘20 Giants is we’ve got much better QB play and an OL that is worlds better.

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I’m calling it right now, 9 wins.

If Rodgers doesn’t play in GB, that’s 2 wins.
Against the Bears is 2 wins.
I think we split with the Vikings. 1 win
Philly at home should be a win. 1 win

That’s 6 wins.
Washington Football Team, Giants, NE, Jets, Dolphins…all winnable.

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That is IMO wishful thinking.

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So was thinking that Fields was going to be a good NFL QB, imo. LOL

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I can get behind the Giants comp but they were still a 6-10 team, and while we are stronger at OL and QB than they were last year, they got to play in one of the worst divisions in NFL history.

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I’m going with 5 wins this yr. More importantly lets get these rookies playing time. Get these lines to gel and over the next 2 drafts we can plug pieces to become dynamic