I’m breaking down this season into 3 volumes.
Volume 1: Saints, Bills, Jets, Panthers, Cards, BYE
The easiest part of the schedule, we face 4 weak teams and 1 contender. I put the over/under at 4.5 – we have a real chance to start the season 5-0. It’s also the perfect schedule to develop chemistry on the OL. Coupled with the bye, we should be firing on all cylinders for the second part of the season.
Volume 2: Pack, Vikes, Dolls, Pats, Bucs, Bears
The second easiest part of the schedule: we get 4 home games, 1 away, and 1 neutral site, but the level of competition has improved. I have the over/under at 4.5 – we should beat the Vikes and Dolls, while the Pack, Pats, Bears and Bucs look like coin flips, with an extra half-game bump for the suite of home games.
This is the part where we get to really measure ourselves against the field, get a leg up on the division with the home slate, and then have a mini-bye to fine tune our schemes before hitting the home stretch.
Volume 3: Falcons, Titans, Vikes, Giants, Bears, Pack
The more I look at this, the more I like it. Sure, we get 4 of 6 on the road, and an ascending Giants team at home. But this is where we can really prepare for the playoffs. We should win the first 3 games of this slate, all while getting the opportunity to test out our refinements.
Yep, you guessed it, I have the over/under at 4.5 again, with those last three games all being coin-flips. All three may feel like playoff games, with the level of competition and likely stakes on the line – winning the division, playoff seeding, and cold-weather aesthetics.
So I think our floor (with average health and average luck) is 12 wins, and our ceiling is 15. If we can sweep the Vikes and split the Bears and Pack, we should win the division. Win the division, and we’re likely the #1 or #2 seed, as the West is the only other divisional powerhouse in the NFC.