Other than the outliers, it seems like most observers think both of these guys are likely to be pretty good to very good. ESPN has Hutch rated 94 and Thibs rated 93. NFL has them at 6.80 and 6.72, respectively. PFF has them #1 and #5, and CBS has them #1 and #6. Very close… too close to distinguish.
However, Hutch is the consensus “better” choice among the draft media, even if it’s not by much. He’s also the hometown kid who starred at the local college with the “eat, drink, sleep football” mindset that’s super media-friendly.
With all of that as a backdrop, it seems to me that Holmbell would have to think that Thibs is signficantly better Hutch to draft him, not just a little bit. And it would still be take some guts.
Few would question the Hutch pick in 3 years if KT balled out. Thibodeaux, in contrast, would be under a microscope from day one. Every play and every game would be compared with Hutch, and heaven forbid, if Hutchinson did end up working out better, it would likely lead tons of media and fan scrutiny.
I don’t want a GM that just follows the dopey draftniks (~cough~RickSpielman~cough~), so I’m fine if they make that decision, but they have to know it’s a risk.
If you were GM, how much better would you have to project KT to be than Hutch to override all of those other things?
Heard last night that Kayvon Thibodeaux is very much in play at #2 with the Lions. It may be tied to Hutchinson going #1 though. If that were the case, I think it would go Hutch, Thib and Walker to Texans. If Walker goes 1, it could go Hutch second, Stingley 3 and Thib sliding.
LOL - Go look at my post in the draft contest. Six edits! And the only thing I keep changing is Thibs and Hutch at the top pick.
I can make arguments either way.
The thing I’m landing on is this … What have Holmes and Campbell and Wood and Sheila and Spielman preached incessantly? Culture, culture, culture.
Thibodeaux might have some physical advantages over Hutchinson – although that’s debatable; Hutchinson seems to time out and measure out right with KT on every metric.
But Hutchinson is unquestionably a Campbell guy. Hutchinson was the absolute leader of a dominant Michigan defense. Hutchinson eats, sleeps, breathes and chews football.
I’ll simplify this. Hutchinson is a local kid who went to Michigan. If I was an involved owner I’d almost force my GM to draft him if he and Thibs were in the same area code because of that alone. Not to mention he doesn’t have the “character” questions Thibs has. If we draft Thibs over him then Dan and Brad have balls of steel.
I think Willis was only ever an option if Hutch went #1 and the character concerns about Thibs were more than Dan and Brad could handle. I’m not convinced that they are.
I guess my point is how much more of a difference maker would Brad have to think KT is going to be over Hutchinson to risk the blowback? I would think his opinion on one or both of the guys would have to be highly divergent from the conventional wisdom to justify that.