Interesting deep dive stat about RB efficiency—only one worse than Jamaal in 2022 is a surprise


I’m thinking of doing one of these for work.

Total Deserving Raise Over Expected, 2023
Takes Credit For Others Work Guy XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Coffee Pot Chatterbox Guy XXXXXXXXXX
“Works” From Home Guy XXX
Needs Deodorant Guy X


That’s interesting… because I thought our running game was pretty good last year and jamaal was good as well. He got us a lot of first downs and had some nice runs aside from the 17 TDs.

So that really speaks to the offense Johnson has, if he left that many yards on the field!

Too bad deandre swift is on that chart, I’m curious what he was at.

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This is spot on what Ben Johnson was saying after the season in his end of year presser that we left a ton of yards on the field that we could have had. Plays where the O-line did a great job but the running back just couldn’t make anyone miss. 5 yard gains could be 15-20+ yard gains if the back could break a tackle is basically what he was saying. Jamaal was terrific in short yardage and goal line though.

Monty breaks a lot of tackles, and Gibbs is very explosive. Looking forward to seeing what they can do running behind Frank the Tank and Sewell all season.


This was pointed out in an Athletic or Detroit article a while back where it discussed how many yards the Lions RB’s left on the field. Main reason why Montgomery and Gibbs are considered upgrades, well, one of the main reasons, is how they should flip this narrative. (yards left on the field).


This may or may not be directionally correct, but it seems really important to understand how they arrive at “expected” yards. Seems highly subjective to me.


Travis Etienne my comp for Gibby LFGOOOO

I read a few times our staff mentioning how we were 1 broken tackle away from big big plays.

Obviously the OL did their job, the RB did not

Now they gone!

DMONT is a broken tackle machine

Gibby might bust a 80 yarder in September and show the league what’s about to happen


Seriously? Who the ■■■■ expected Jamaal to go over 1,000 yards and have 17 TD’s?
These people are just pulling this stuff out of their ass.
Don’t show me a chart. I want to see even one clip of anyone saying they expected Jamaal to break 1,000 yards.
I’m one of his biggest fans and I was hoping for 700-800, but, thinking it would be closer to 600.
That breaks the bullshit meter.


Honestly this feels accurate to me. I loved Jamaal. Tough as nails. Converted in tough situations (Dallas mistake aside). Normally ball secure. Read blocks correctly. Patient. BUT…rarely made something out if nothing. Rarely got more yards than what was blocked.

He was a solid RB here but nothing more and nothing less and that IS valuable. Also a leader. But not a game breaker. Not a guy who ripped the heart out of a defense.


Opening game, we will rush for 424 yards, in a win, breaking the record for most yards for a team rushing!


That is an excellent point and I wonder the same thing… how do you look at each player’s individual runs and determine this.

A guy runs for 2 yards up the middle and he could’ve gotten 4 or should’ve only got 0? A guy runs for 12 yards and a first down but he could’ve run for 30 more?

However they figured all this out would be interesting, but with all these new analytics these days the data check is definitely sus as the kids would say, or suspicious as I’ll say

Gibbs will still be running by the time week 2 comes around!


It is interesting because Johnson did say they left a lot of yards on the field, so I would love to be a fly on the wall when they are going through game film and seeing where those yards were.

Jamaal had a lot of nice runs but in hindsight without rewatching film I wonder what another back could’ve gotten. There were a ton of examples of swift not following blocks where he would’ve gone to the house probably… I feel like swift left a lot of yards on the field.

And that is probably where our love and frustration for Williams and swift came from. Williams was consistent and while not always amazing, was pretty darn reliable. Swift had plays he blew up for the better but also had a lot of plays where you wondered what he was thinking

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Was hoping to see Montgomery on the other side of the line. Also explains why we prioritized a RB in the draft


Could also be he had an awful OL…

But that’s exactly what @Doctor_Love was getting at I think, how are they coming around to these numbers?

Its hard to get your head around the “expected” metrics put out the the analytics guys. The explanation of it is not very detailed, Its based on an AI learning model, of course, and the best explanation of it that you can get is something like:

RYOE uses field position, defensive alignment, and player tracking data (depending on provider) to determine how many more yards a rusher gained than we’d expect an average rusher to gain in the same situation.

So, the “provider” - e.g., PFF, etc all have different models, sometimes based on tracking data, sometimes based on pre-snap alignment, etc. etc.

But, no matter who the provider is, rushing yards over expected (RYOE) is a poor predictor for the same player from season to season. Meaning the “over expected” model is not very good. for that metric. Yards after a catch over expected (YACOE) is only slightly better. However, completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is pretty reliable from year to year, and tracks well with other QB metrics.

So, I wouldn’t put too much weight on RYOE.

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Interesting. So if it’s first down and ten, on your own 35, facing a light box maybe they set an expected number at 5.5 yards per carry

But third down and one on your opponents 45 facing a stacked line, maybe the expected number is 2 YPC


Nice rant, but misses the point which doesn’t diminish what Jamaal accomplished last year.


Zero D-coordinators lost any sleep last year trying to think of a game plan on how to stop J Williams


Maybe they should have.