This is a thing a number of us - @TNutZz was one, I remember - pointed out last year: Jared Goff is VERY good at avoiding sacks. And he’s obviously on quite roll avoiding turnovers.
Few sacks + no TO’s makes a big contribution toward the Lion’s 10-2 record over their last 12.
*# sacks is often seen as a reflection on OL protection. And of course it is, in part. But last year the Lions were only 14th-best in QB pressure allowed, a little better than average. Here’s the link. But they were 2ND-BEST in sacks allowed.
That’s Jared Goff. Obviously not a great scrambler, but better at buying time than a lot of us give him credit for and is very willing to throw it away.
'Taint flashy. 'Taint glamorous. But, maaaan, it helps a team win.
Yup. I was a voice defending him when the narrative was that he wilted under pressure.
He was the second most blitzed and seventh most pressured last year. Everyone brought the heat against us. His average time to release was 2.4 seconds which is quick processing time for a pocket passer
Goff is an interesting character in that people tend to see an instance of when he does something poorly once and make a sweeping extrapolation to condemn his play in total
There was one instance where he could have stepped up better in the pocket. And for a week all the board could say was ‘Goff never steps up’
Last week he didn’t see someone out of progressions and the board is ‘Goff can’t play out of structure’
He doesn’t throw deep much his first year here when we didn’t have a deep threat and it’s ‘Goff can’t throw deep’
But none of that is true. People have always been so quick to want to believe the worst about him.
It’s my understanding that statistics still support the narrative that he’s not good when pressured. I don’t have PFF but just the other day Robert Mays and Nate Tice were talking about the Lions and Goff (in a mostly positive manner) and quoted quite a few metrics from just last year that indicated he wasn’t very good under pressure.
If that’s true the good news, which they mentioned, is that he’s married to the perfect situation to mitigate those weaknesses.
PFF weighs a metric called ‘big time throw’. A deep
throw under pressure. Most of last year they ‘punished’ Goff for not making those but they never, in context, mention that his BTT metric shot up significantly when Chark got healthy
The argument most use references a USA Today article that draws from a database that ranks QBs under pressure. It ranks him as 26th or thereabouts. And seems to draw its rankings from completions percentage
Problem is when the linked database is clicked, firstly it includes several quarterbacks who played only a few games. which dilutes the ranking significance. It also seems to mostly rank based on completion percentage. So it punishes throw aways. From memory it has Brady ranked at about the same area as Goff. So it punishes risk-adverse. And there’s probably a reason Goff just passed Brady for third on the all time throws without a pick list - Don’t throw dumb passes
I hate the big time throw thing. Personally I don’t want my QB making tight window throws unless he has to. I know JG can. That he often doesn’t I see as a virtue even if PFF disagrees.
IIRC Tice and Mays were reflecting on was either EPA or DVOA when under pressure.
I believe they said he was number 2 in that same metric when not under pressure. It’s not just them. I’ve heard quite a few of the sports nerd blogosphere quoting their metrics that show Goff still struggles when pressured. Next time it comes up on one (and it will) I’ll alert you. I don’t really feel like going through recent Athletic Football show podcasts until I find it.
Yup. The latter was completion percentage which is a bit of an incomplete snapshot. The upper one doesn’t say where and how it draws its data. It seems like echo chamber stuff
But note the top four ranking QBs are Driskell, Ridder, Minschew, and Blough.
Then notice Aaron Rodgers at 36 Stafford at 51 and Tom
Brady at 56.
For better rankings check out Football Outsiders who rank (minimum 200 throws) Goff second in DYAR, 4th in DVOA and 5th in Total QBR which incorporates pressure situations
I had a Football Outsiders account for a month but didn’t care enough to find the subscription fee worthwhile.
I listen to Mays and Tice quite a bit. They’re very data driven and I’ve never found them to lie. The fact that their point of view has been repeated by other data driven nerds I listen to suggests (to me at least) that Goff still does struggle under pressure. Though I do believe he’s gotten better.
To be honest it also jives with my eye test as well as his skill set (loopier release), not that prolific with off platform and weird arm angle stuff, etc.
Like I said, next time it comes up on one of the podcasts with a reference to specific data I will forward you the link with a (verbalized) time stamp.
I’m pretty sure that Justin Edwards’ source is PFF. Pretty sure that’s what Tice and Mays primarily use as well. Though I’m sure they mix in some Footballoutsiders as well.
