I think that’s also a good comp, Allen was a hell of a player
1 Like
Jared Allen was drafted as a longsnapper with position player upside. Funny to think about now. 
Allen came from a small school and was super raw too.
Hutch reminds me of him. Similar players and Hutch is far better than he was coming out. Funny or scary to think Hutch could be a better version of him.
And him getting man handled against the only true test he had vs Georgia.
Sacks are a bad metric for evaluating future sacks. I know that sounds nuts but there’s a lot of stuff that has nothing to do with the rusher himself that affects sacks. Is the QB mobile? Does he get the ball out in less than a second? Is your teammate arriving more quickly and stealing the sack because he’s going against a lesser offensive lineman? How good is the coverage behind you?
What really matters is pressure rate. Are you consistently beating the guy in front of you? It’s a better barometer for pure pass-rushing ability. No less an expert than Bill Belichick agrees:
And when you look at the best pressure guys in college last year, well look who’s at the top.
https://twitter.com/jordan_reid/status/1466088456514416651?s=21
3 Likes
Great stuff Thats2. Very interesting. I believe pressure matters too.
That’s cute, never mind the 1st rd LT at Ohio st, where he had 15 pressures and 3 sacks.
Georgia game planned for him and got that ball out quickly. I guess LT, White, Garrett etc never went a game without a sack?
He’s a consensus top 2 pick most have him the top player in the draft, so don’t know what to tell ya.
I prefer pressures to sacks as well. However, a pressure percentage metric needs context as well. Not every player is in the same scheme or tasked with the same assignment. Some guys are allowed to attack the QB on every pass attempt, while others are asked to control their rush to contain the QB or flush him into a different pressure point. The people recording the metric wouldn’t necessarily know the difference.
It’s cute. Lol, so one game. Dude got pancaked so bad against Georgia. So what happens when nfl teams have a game plan against him. Too many blue bellies on this board. There’s been a lot of players that have been bust by the so called experts putting mock picks together.
While true I’m pretty sure PFF takes this into account. If they’re not actively rushing the passer it doesn’t count as a “pass-rushing attempt.” Now admittedly there’s a gray area where maybe the edge holds the line then rushes, but I can’t help but think those are going to be few and far between. No metric is perfect, but pressure is far more reliable than sacks.
Yes cute, hilarious even. You call me or us blue bellies, lol. I suppose the scouts must be as well.
The guy is a consensus top 2 player, everywhere.
You want to break it down, go ahead. Give me YOUR scouting report. … I gave mine, now your turn. Let’s just see how good you are.
Not of fan of either DE. Scouts are wrong a ton. He’s had few great games, key word a few. I’m on the train for Hamilton. But I know you should never take a S that early. What I watched from Hutch against Georgia says all I need to see. I mean scouts didn’t think any thing of Brady, or Kurt Warner.
So you watched 1 game? You can’t speak to his strength, short area quickness, burst to the QB, ankle flex, bend, hand usage, motor, ability to read the play, adjust on the fly, sift through traffic, set people up and counter.
You call everyone a blue belly, and hold 1 game against him. A game that Georgia specifically game planned to limit his effectiveness. Which in and of itself tells you how much they knew they had to stop him to have the best chance to win.
I see some good stuff from him, but he’s not worth the number one pick or two. There’s no body this year. But again blue belly, one game can make a difference in football. Look what happened to walker one bad game and he didn’t get invited to New York. But caring on about scouts this and scouts that. I’m done with this conversation, enjoy your day , and go Bengals
LOL. There it is again, blue belly. You have no idea my college team is, you ASSume. You MUST also ASSUME, every scout is a blue belly too, and if the Jags take him 1 OA, they must be blue bellies.
I see now, your a butt hurt state fan because Walker wasn’t even invited to the Heisman ceremony. That Hutchinson finished no. 2. Or am I assuming this to be true.
And screw the Bengals,
1 Like
They literally don’t, and freely admit it. They judge plays based on results. They do not try to get deeper into the assignment for that particular player or what he was up against. And any player tasked with a controlled rush angle where the goal is containment or to allow for a different pressure point, wouldn’t be obvious at first glance. It would look like a normal rush that didn’t get direct pressure. You would have to have a deeper understanding of scheme and talk to the coaches. Which is something that they specifically try to avoid.
I like pressures more than sacks. But turning pressure into sacks is also a skill set. Game film is king, but stats and metrics have their place. If a guy doesn’t have alot of sacks, I look at his tackles for loss stats. If a guy lacks sacks but has alot of tackles for loss, that tells me he is an attack dog that for whatever reason hasn’t been able to pump up the sack number. But if he lacks sacks AND tackles for loss, that is a good indication that the guy lacks the ability to attack and finish disruptive plays.
1 Like
Not at all I was making a point. I could care less about a silly trophy but caring on. Again enjoy your day. BTW one of my favorite football players is Charles Woodson.
Your point being he didn’t dominate Grorgia? Nevermind they had to adjust their offense to handle him. Blocking assignments and quick passes and roll outs.
Donald had games like that. 1 game, and a game you don’t understand why, isn’t a good sample. It’s also disregarding a much larger body of work, also not identifying why he’ll succeed or possibly fail.
You can do that with anyone in the draft.
I also loved Woodson, I also Waddle last yr and hate Bama. My fandom of a team doesn’t influence who I like or don’t. My hope is the best player for Detroit. Hutch is that guy IMO
1 Like
If true, I stand corrected. I know they look at each play individually and don’t know why they would count a pressure-loss when a guy is holding the edge - which is obvious on tape - if they’re going through every play, but so be it. I agree that a controlled rush is a gray area, but again that can’t be a very high percentage of a rush rate overall unless that’s the guy’s role on the defense (Khalid Kareem comes to mind).
Even then, it shouldn’t detract from the guys with a high pressure rate. It only means perhaps we need to dig into the guys with a lower pressure rate to see if there might be a reason. But of those guys on that list, I don’t think any were asked to do a controlled rush all that often. Anderson and Bonito dropped into coverage plenty but surely PFF doesn’t count those, and all of Enagbare’s rushes kind of look like controlled containment but that’s just how he wins (which also goes to your point about it not being obvious).
I made this argument ad nauseum with Jayson/Odafe Oweh last year who had no sacks but was actually 2nd in the Big 10 in pressures. As expected, his pressure rate translated and he made 1st team all-rookie at DE.
1 Like
When NFL teams have to game plan for him, it’s called a win because it singles up everyone else who are expected to win one on one. I think individual metrics on things like pressures are just really tough to say yup this guy puts more heat on the QB. Would KT have as high a pressure rating if he played with Ojabo as Hutch did? Where he was gobbling up pressures and sacks and not leaving more seconds on the table for Hutch to collect? I’d say absolutely, but impossible to quantify how much. I do rely on pressure stats a lot, especially with interior dlineman. I’m just not willing to look at the stats and say that KT pressures the QB more than Hutch because look at this 3% difference. Ojabo could easily be that difference if he takes less from Hutch or takes more from KT. I’m going to be happy with either one. I do want Hutch more due to the above the neck metric and better ability to move inside. I hope we resign Harris, then we could have sets where JOk and Harris can play the Rush OLB spots and Hutch can play 3t.
1 Like