And you don’t get a Brian Branch without being aggressive to trade up for the guys you’ve identified.
There are tangible examples for every “rule of thumb” people want to apply, in both directions. There’s no simple, algorithmic hack to drafting talented players.
With the few roster spots available on this team, I 100% think Brad makes the right decision by going for the latter.
One other point on the “lottery ticket” / “dart” argument…
Not only does a full, talented roster make it hard to accommodate a bunch of extra picks, it makes it a lot tougher for a low-round guy to get opportunities to show out.
When ARSB hit the Lions roster, it was at a point when the Lions had one of the worst WR corps in NFL history. Then the top two guys (on paper) got hurt or were cut for attitude reasons.
If the next ARSB came onto this roster, does he even get the chance to hit his stride and find himself? It’s impossible to answer, but I don’t think it’s crazy to say that a stronger roster makes it more difficult for an unheralded rookie to get the opportunities he’d get on a Miami or NY Jets roster.
The “darts” approach makes a lot more sense for a cruddy, rebuilding team than one with realistic Super Bowl aspirations.
So, so true. Everyone in here could go back and forth with examples to “prove” their point. I would love it if going forward, we could all just agree that “yes, we could waste our time with it but let’s not, here are the OTHER reasons I think you’re wrong” lol
Theres a difference between trading up for a player like Barns. 4 year starter at a P4 school. With a high rated defense.
ASB was their own pick. And he was also a 3 year starter at a p4 school. With a high powered offense
Vs trading up for guys like Bromart, Sorsdal, Manu. FBS D2 or international players. Or trading up for a guy that was a transfer from small highschools to small college. To then the worst SEC team statistically in Teslaa.
Theres a difference between trading up and taking a big swing on a guy that has proven himself against top talent. Vs a guy that looks elite against guys that will be working at Amazon after graduating.
Yes but we could easily give examples, as @Doctor_Love just said, where trading up for guys like that DID work out. Like the Bills trading up for Josh Allen, or the Packers for Jordan Love. On and on.
@Thats2 beat me to the punch. Applying the proposed rule drafts guys like Jeff Okudah over Calvin Johnson (and on, and on, and on).
The key issue is that this is a probabilistic issue, not a deterministic one. It simply cannot be solved by a simple spreadsheet formula, especially when normies like us lack so much of the information.
Nah, not true. The list of guys who played at big programs and busted is so long it will make your brain bleed.
The thing is, good players can come from anywhere. Limiting yourself arbitrarily is madness. Look no further than Howie Roseman who is constantly plucking guys from small programs. Trading up. Trading down. Shit he drafts guys who’ve never played before, like Mailata. On and on. Same with Les Snead. Yeah, sometimes they bust, but sometimes they don’t.
Yes the list of big name busts is long. But as a percentage? What percentage of players taken from power programs are virtually out of the league in 3 years?
Vs whats the percentage of no name school players out of the league?
Sure you have 260 draft picks. 230+ are from power programs. so only 30 are from small schools. If 15 of the 30 are out thats only 50% hit rate. pretty sure well more than 115 of those big school players are still in
And going forward, you are more likely to be correct since the vast majority of good players from small schools will now transfer.
But, for example, where do you draw the line between power programs. Is a pick from Ohio State the same as a pick from Rutgers? From SMU? If you answer no, then you’re admitting that using power programs as the baseline here is fallacious.
What you’re really trying to say is drafing players from ELITE schools, and I’m here to say they bust at an exorbitant rate. Yes, percentage and all. I have had multiple conversations on why that might be (the talent around them making them look better, on and on). I also believe guys who stand out at smaller schools without the talent around them had a HIGHER hit rate, at least for a while. It’s much more difficult to stand out in that environment.
None of these are hard and fast rules, but that’s my point. Good players can come from anywhere. You can note in an eval “played in big games” - in fact you should - but it should only be a check in the pros column, not the basis for an evaluation.
This response is ironic considering you are giving me such push back not liking the bottom half of our skill position players or lack there of…
I do however agree that trading up for project players just doesn’t make sense. IMO the mentality should be, I’d love to work with him…if he falls to me. Rather then let’s go get this project guy, giving up extra picks.
Just did number crunching for the Cap too. they have $0 available. Like technically they have $4m but thats for the practice squad pay each week. So dont expect any crazy moves anytime soon.
For Pacheco, do we know if this is IR designated to return? Or is this the season ending IR? I am guessing its designated to return, but hey who knows. Back injuries can get scary quick.
After 53 man cut down it doesn’t matter. Both are the same. You only have to make that designation for the preseason. Because you only get 2 pre season exemptions. But during the season your only allowed to activate 8 total. So you could have 100 players on IR. Only 8 can be activated
