Do players drafted on day 2 have a higher hit rate? If so……..
Yeah, I agree 100%. I’m not saying you can’t find late round gems. You obviously can and we have. What I am saying though is that finding those gems is hard. Even with how good Brad is, he will still miss more than hit in the later rounds because the talent just isn’t there.
Like I said. I don’t think they’re throw away picks. I just think people need to have reasonable expectations. Calling a 4th round pick is a reach is a little silly considering how hard it is to hit on them. They’re all in the same bucket of “these guys have a lot of warts”. It’s all about who can find them and coach them up. Every once in a while, somehow, a few slip through the cracks and you get an Amon Ra who most definitely should not have been a 4th round pick.
Usually though, you’re just happy if the guy is a solid depth piece at this point in the draft. For what it’s worth, the Lions hold on to their picks at a much higher rate than other teams (nearly 72% vs the league average of 58%). Some of that is because the picks are better than everyone elses. Some of that is also because I think the Lions are really convicted on these guys that they think are who they were when they drafted them where other teams might move on. (Guys like Manu come to mind).
3 Likes
What’s this dude’s closing speed like? Can he chase down QB’s escaping the pocket?
1 Like
He will be a starter or key rotational player in 2027. Great tackler. Good instincts. Needs experience. Room to grow. Consensus ‘coach him up’ player. At least he started for a P5 school and not some guy from university of Saskatchewan. Don’t love it. Don’t hate it. Hope he hits and becomes a net positive player.
3 Likes
I second that notion.
1 Like
Great pick.
1 Like
But COME ON, everyone knows the snake oil salesmen are more knowledgeable than the guys making the decisions. Especially in the 4th round. Hilarious.
1 Like
The biggest issue with those markets is they’re based on so little information. We are just lacking so much info that the teams use to make their picks. From the medical reports to the character stuff to the interviews to the GPS numbers… how are we supposed to really know what we’re talking about with all of those mocks? IMO that’s why the draft tends to be SO different, and because we have that history, why I don’t really buy any reach metrics based on predictive markets.
3 Likes
His highlights only show him rushing the passer, any Michigan fan can tell me how is he in coverage?
Doubt Rolder is a bong guy.
2 Likes
Taking any source or collective information on the topic really is just pointless. If it were so easy to rank these players in order we would literally see the best 100 players go 1-5, 6-15, 16-25, etc…we would never see later hits and early busts.
As fans we shouldn’t be critical with “oh that’s a reach,” or “oh man they got a steal!” These guys doing these break downs probably do it less than @Thats2 @CuriousHusker and others. I feel the guys who get paid to do it (not actual NFL personnel) are doing the bare minimum of what it truly takes to evaluate players because it’s their “job,” rather than a true passion for it.
2 Likes
Whose data? Whose analytics? Obviously not BH’s and to be blunt, nobody on this board has enough information, wherewithal, skillset, resources etc. to make this call. All anyone can do is two things, -1-second guess and -2- say I told you so.
These teams spend millions gathering data, we sit on our computers reading what social media influencers sell us. The fact anyone here actually believes they have the ability to second guess BH is hilarious and pathetic. The cognitive bias runs deep.
2 Likes
So, I’ve read at least two draft reviews that had him pegged as a potential-if-not-likely NFL starter.
Picked in round 4.
What’s not to like?
I don’t give a damn about predictive markets. They have precisely zero insight into how a team of scouts adjusts a player based on scheme and culture fit. Zero. None. Literally nothing.
I trust Brad more than a bunch of arm chair GMs who drink domestic beer from a can.
17 Likes
Kyle Louis went 50+ picks the other way right? How does that happen when literally every team had a chance to take him…
2 Likes
We should take Rashaun Benny in the 5th and just keep this Michigan thing rolling!!!
2 Likes
Generally, I agree. But not when the two markets you’re comparing don’t have the same data informing them. Because this:
I disagree with. Especially now that the teams aren’t using testing to gauge athleticism but GPS numbers that we DON’T have access to. We’ve also never really had access to the medical reports. And finally, you have to factor in that many boards are affected by active MISinformation, especially by supposed experts.
In this instance, for these reasons, I just don’t think it’s a very good metric to use.
1 Like
I think the Lions should keep the Michigan streak goin and take Rayshawn Benny next. I don’t know anything other than what the snake oil salesmen sell me, but I just think it would be cool to have three U of M defensive players on the Lions.
2 Likes
I don’t know that I consider predictive markets and advanced data analytics the same thing.
1 Like
HA. I agree, I just commented this as well.
1 Like