…and 2. Top 602! Mad respect, I’m trying like hell to get to 400 for the draft. I don’t think he’s the greatest evaluator, but still. This is as long of a list as I’ve seen. Even DraftTek’s isn’t this long yet, and that’s multiple people.
Some steamy takes too. Tet as WR4. Belton as OT5. Noel above Higgins. Kaleb Johnson top 50. Interesting exercise.
26, 27, 28 is the new 1,2,3
Let’s hope he’s right about that.
I think my biggest “want” this year is Jihaad Campbell. I know I’m alone on this, but I want him off-ball in Alex’s spot, specifically for the extra pressure he can produce from that spot. I don’t want him as an every-down OLB, I want him as an every-down Mack linebacker who will occasionally sneak up on the line as something of a SAM/JACK.
I don’t think you’re alone on that. Well, maybe in here, but a lot of people in the wider space think that’s the best way to use him. And I’m actually not terribly far off, his versatility is one of his selling points, we’d be foolish not to use it. And certainly if we DID draft him he wouldn’t be a SAM for us because Barnes is there. He’d be moved all over the 2nd level, run-and-chase some, cover some, rush some. No reason to label it.
I didn’t think there was a chance in hell he could fall to us - the rumblings were the league liked him a lot more than media did - but who knows with this injury? Maybe he does. And I’m pretty sure our FO likes him quite a bit.
Players 246 thru 300 are missing from the list I saw. Is there any way you can add them? We do appreciate all the info you provide for us. Thank you
Noel is very much the same breed as Sun God.
I am about to come out with a post like I did last year of guys we should be talking about more in which I include Noel (and apologize to you). I still think he’s likely to go with a higher pick than one we would use to replace Raymond, but I also think there probably isn’t a more us player in the draft. And of course if we DO pick him, it won’t just be as a Raymond replacement. We’ll find more ways to use him.
I’ve also heard whispers from some of the insiders that someone at ISU has drawn our interest (makes sense after hiring Roehl), and while the instinct is to believe it’s Higgins due to fit, does he really block well enough for us? Conversely Noel is everything we want out of a prospect, and I mean everything. So while I still think the fit isn’t great, if Dan and Brad fall in love, all bets are off.
So, I’ve tried to plug it into multiple archive sites and all of them are strangely missing numbers 246 through 300. So either the main page is actually missing them too, it’s doing something to block them from showing (which seems odd, why not block the rest?), or something’s up with all of the archiving sites. I’ve set the reddit maniacs on it, I’ll let you know if they come up with anything.
One point I’ve been considering about this draft is how many offensive guards actually get taken per year in the first round.
I did a very unscientific study on this and went back over the last ten drafts and not once did four OGs go in round one. Now, it gets murkier when a guy is listed as an OT and he ends up playing OG in the league. And I didn’t include those designated as centers, that could also play OG. A guy has to be very very talented to get picked in the first round vs most position groups. Even more special to be picked top 10.
Miller has two guards in his top 32. One is arguably a center in Zabel, but I think he’ll end up a guard. The other is Booker. He has Banks, Jr. as a top 10 guy which seems higher than I’ve seen. I’ve seen Banks consistently in the top 32 on lists - obviously it’ll depend if teams see him as an OG or OT. Jeremiah also has all three of these guys in his top 50.
Another guy a little like Banks is Donovan Jackson because he could theoretically play tackle too. I don’t see him too often in the top 32. Occassionally.
I guess my point is that if the Lions are sitting at 28 and would be super happy with any one of these guys, what are the odds that one will be there? What are the odds that one will be there if they trade down to 33 or 34 or 35ish? Every draft is different but the odds feel pretty good, I think. Honestly, there are a lot of drafts where four OGs don’t go top 60 much less top 32.
It appears, all things being equal, teams would rather have a different position.
The other part of the equation is DE too. I mean how often are like 9 DEs picked in the top 60? Probably not unheard of, but I haven’t checked it out.
88.5%
66.3%
Do OLB’s count? What about 3-4 ends? There’s a lot of guys who would be DTs for one team who play edge for another. Like, was Cominsky an edge? Wingo? Levi?
I think there are a few guys Brad will really like and MIGHT get aggressive for, but only if they fall to a certain level. Like, I doubt he would trade up to the 10-15 range unless it was for someone like Mason Graham or Will Campbell. Maybe Membou.
I think for everyone else you’re looking at them falling past 20. Mykel, S. Stewart, Jihaad, Harmon… those would be the ones I think we’ll consider trading up for the most. Maaaaybe Donovan Jackson if we become smitten with his T tape.
After that I think we’ll have a bucket of guys we like, and if a bunch of them fall to us, sure we might try and trade down. I think ANY trade down is unlikely (as much as I’d love it personally), so I suspect in that scenario we stick and pick.
But that’s mostly a guess. Only half of Brad’s 6 1st round picks have been at their original spots, and two of those were top 10 where trading up is difficult (and rumor is we tried to do it the year we drafted Sewell). So moving around is par for the course.
BUT a) that’s a really small sample size, b) one of those picks was made after moving down - Gibbs, and c) our 2nd round picks have largely been devoid of drama, which should probably be factored as well. The only time we’ve actually moved up for a guy once the round had started was for Branch, and we only gave up an extra 5th for that. It has largely been a more conservative area of the draft for us, though often we are dealing with the fallout of our 1st round maneuvers (both the Paschal and LaPorta picks). Oh, and we traded down out of it once.
All of which is a long-winded way to say… your guess is as good as mine?
Nope, you are not alone. I do think the Lions need a DE opposite of Hutch and it’s easy to say we will go that route. However, the thing that burns the Lions the most is mobile QB’s. You know what a lot of teams that contain mobile QB’s have? A damn fast outside LB. I love Anzalone, but he is getting up there. Barnes is good, but we will see where his mobility is. Having the law firm of Campbell, Cambell and Barnes as our LB’s makes me very happy. We can still snag a DE opposite Hutch a bit later in the draft.
They came through (the formatting from the two sites conflict horribly when I try and reformat it, so I’m just leaving it how they put it even if it’s not the prettiest thing):
There are a lot of blazing LBs in this class who should go a long way towards remedying our issues with mobile QBs (or a safety like Winston). There’s no reason to pay up for that. The appeal of Campbell is that he ALSO brings some pass-rush juice (#1 ranked edge rusher as a high school recruit), not to mention the leadership, football intelligence, grit, and professionalism we’ve all come to expect from Alabama players. He’s a culture guy, through and through.
Nice, as your probably guessed I posted food for thought really. What got me thinking about it is probably a good problem. I think we are in line to get two very good players at positions of relative need if we choose to. A lot of times, I’m looking at these choices and gauging like perhaps Brad is and asking if I take X at 28 at this position, who will be at 60 at the other position? But it I take position Y first, what player at X’s position will still be there at 60? And I know, the old stand by is Brad doesn’t think this way. And they may be true. But the position gods seem to be lining up for us, if we so indulge. We should get two very good players at either EDGE, DT, or OG (OT?). You never know, but there has to be a little bit of gaming the system in this process. If I take Zabel or Booker at 28, who is going to be available at 60? If Swinson or JTT or maybe Femi are there, hey I feel pretty good about that order. Or how much worse is Marcus MBow (who seems more attainable at 60) than Donovan Jackson? Its these sorts of weighing that are the hardest part of mocks for me.
Well I think what’s more true is he doesn’t look at need that way. He doesn’t ignore it altogether, it’s just for him it may be different than 1. edge, 2. ol, 3. dt and so on. I guarantee he’s thinking about the fact that ARSB is our only WR signed past this year and re-upping Jamo might prove difficult MUCH more than the fans on here. He’s thinking about the trouble with signing 2 safeties long-term, and the imminent retirement of AA, and Decker and Frank and Glasgow and how far along Manu is.
On here we tend to be “prisoners of the moment” and our focus is on our needs RIGHT NOW, whereas Brad has said many, many times, he goes out of his way to avoid being a prisoner of the moment.
He also combines that with his judgment of players as much as he does the position they play. Like if he likes Jayden Higgins more at 60 than he does, oh, Darius Alexander or Landon Jackson, he’ll take Higgins and be fine with it. Like, I bet the Cowboys sure wish they’d taken DK Metcalf (64th pick) over Trysten Hill (58th pick), no matter their need at the time. Brad looks at it like that. Of course the higher need could be the higher grade too, I just don’t think he’d reach for it.
So I really doubt he’s looking at it like player y and player x’s positions. He’s certainly aware of the depth of the class at every spot, but as for trying to engineer to fill our biggest needs? Nah. He wants his guys, and if those guys are at positions of greatest need, great!
26,27,28 yes 33 and 36 4,5.
Tory Horton 77
Femi 52
Sawyer 62
Ty Robinson 51
Schwesinger 45
Glad to see he has Loveland over Warren.
That’s how I see it too.
I have them basically back to back, just a coin flip depending on what you want. Warren is more of a weapon as a ball carrier and Loveland as a receiver.
