Maybe it’s best NOT to re-sign too many of our FAs?

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
#1

Dead, Phunny, Luke, others have made some really good points about tight cap space, possible regression etc.

I think we would ALL agree this team needs Commish and Swaggy here in 23-24’- maybe Buggs if cheap enough?

Getting guys like Elliott, Raymond, Reynolds, C Harris, AA, Buggd, Commish, E Brown, Hughes, and even Swaggy for pretty cheap deals has helped us dramatically improve while climbing out of cap hell.

We will never get out of cap challenges if we pay these guys 4-5M per……

It sucks breaking up the band, but I’d like to get a new batch of 3-4 guys we can pay 1.0-2.0 on prove it deals.

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#2

The Fine Art of Parting A Year Early Instead Of A 2nd Contract Late.

Brought to you by AO, Chatles Harris, TJ Hockenson.

Or.would you rather Trey Flowers all over the place.

Seriously, its tough to figure out who to part with, but tbh, its guys with injury histories. Unless you are Frank CyGoreg…guys that get hurt, get hurt more and decline.

Bye Elliott, bye Harris, maybe even Chark (thin class may decide this for us), bye Big V, bye Brockers.

Guys I’d possibly take a chance on? Rokwara and Okudah and Chark. Along with the priority not injury prone guys like Commish, Brown and Buggs and Woods, Moore, Board etc

It’s like buying dog food…Dont overpay for filler.

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#3

If they plus Evan Brown and Analzone sign with other teams, that would net us some compensatory picks if we don’t make splash FA signings.

That may well happen if annual compensatory picks are part of Brad’s plan starting in 2024. We are getting 5 picks in the top 81 in 2023 and they have to play to blossom. Brad and Dan told us about their 2 year plan. Maybe this is their 3rd year plan, which includes preserving salary cap for signings of homegrown FAs down the line.

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#4

Agree with this. I’ve always been a sign your own guy. But, like @Weaselpuppy says, you got to know when to walk away. As good as Belichick is on the field, he was equally as good as a GM when deciding who to let walk away.

Sign the bulk of your UFA’s at reasonable prices, if they outprice you, move on (Jalen Reeves Mabin did this last year). If Chark, Brown, Elliott and Alex command too much, walk away.

Consider the UFA’s and injuries:
Anzalone - Had a solid year, knows the system well. True workhorse. Might be looking for that final pay day in the NFL.
Elliott - Took a one year prove it deal and proved it, should get paid, not sure if it should or can be us when we have Walker and Kerby.
Chark - again took a one year prove it and, eh . . . I’m not concerned with the injury, but I do think we are going to be priced out.
E Brown - same thing, I think we are going to be priced out
Romeo - He averaged 38% snaps in the five games in 2022, in 2020, he averaged 68%. Clearly not the same player, but is this because he wasn’t fully recovered yet or is it because he’s no longer as effective as 2020.
Charles Harris played the first five weeks, missed a couple, played parts of two more and was done - Groin injury. Probably good to go next season.
Big V - back injury, dangerous for a big guy. struggled in 2020, played great in 2021 and sat out 2022. Is he worth a $9.5M gamble.

The Chiefs made the right move to let Tyreek Hill go and after doing it, are still relevant. It’s what Belichick was able to do for so many years in NE. BH has to make the tough choices, knowing when to let go is the toughest part of the job.

I still think we re-sign more than 75% of our own UFA’s. Romeo, Charles and Vaitai have no roster bonuses due, we don’t have to make a decision on any of them until training camp.

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#5

I hate to add an echo in here, but I agree with everything posted already. It largely depends on the money. There are core guys you gotta sign and deal with, but I don’t see any of the upcoming FAs in that category. I think they sign the guys that make sense financially, but I can’t see them overpaying for anyone.

One more thing to toss in there - some of these guys are not going to get paid what some on here think IMO. For example AA got a shade over 2 mil in his last contract. Would I like him back at that salary or close to it? Absolutely. Same thing with Elliot - signed for 1.1 milly. I’m not sure some of these guys will break the bank like some are assuming (clearly a raise but not by THAT much for some). Then we have a couple guys like Chark who I think will. Partially due to the market conditions.

Lastly - I may be in the minority, but this team still needs upgrades. The RB position needs more depth, the OL needs depth, the LB position needs a starter, I could go on here. I know we have some great draft picks, but this team still needs to be aggressive in improving the roster. People got too low on the talent the first half, and too high during the win streak. It’s somewhere in the middle and they can’t just “run it back” and expect huge things. So if some of these FA contracts create upgrade opportunities (like Jamaal for example) - that could be a blessing in disguise

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#6

Big V is a 6.5mil gamble. That is what we save if we move on. If be plays the whole season like 2021 he is worth more than that. Back surgery on big guys is about 80% effective at getting them back in the game properly. He also brings great leadership skills. I tentatively want him back at that price if the doctors give the thumbs up.

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#7

It’s a $9.5M gamble. We save $9.5M - $6.5M in 2023 and $3M in 2024.

He’s worth the money if healthy.

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#8

Keep finding 1 year gems in Free Agency.

If the price is right on then stay, if not let em walk & keep building. 5 top 85 picks. 3 day 3s

A guy like Deshon Elliot, would love to have him back. But if he wants a lot more than he made this year he can go.

Harmon, Kearse, T. Wilson, Deshon

Seems like every year we get a FA S that is solid and then moves on…

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#9

I should have looked at who i was correcting lol. You are right as always. I had forgotten about the restructurings

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#10

IMO I believe that there will be players that many of us believe the Lions should give new contracts, that will not be back. There will be players that many of believe the Lions should get rid of, who will still be part of the team during the off-season. I agree with the OP that the pay is going to be the big factor that decides who stays and who goes. I also believe that if the Lions believe they can get an upgrade, that will also play a factor into the decision.

I will also say that I disagree with some that the Lions need to be aggressive this offseason. From what I have seen the Lions do so far is resign their own guys and add some cheap prove deals in FA. I see no reason for the Lions to change things up at this time. What they have done have worked out so far, so why should they change what is working?

#11

There are great financial voices here and I am not disagreeing with anyone here. If a free agent we have prices himself past what they are worth to us then yep, move on.

I look at position groups overall, not so much what one guy is making. I also want to extend Jonah Jackson now for example as I want that message sent to the rest of the team. I pay my long-term game-changing starters viable long-term starting $. I also pay role players the same value for a role player.

I also pay $ ball when and where necessary. I am willing to go cheap at LBer and CB, TE and RB in 2023. You have to save $ somewhere.

To that end I am not crazy worried about the DL overall as only Romeo Okwara is making big bucks and I keep Romeo who is entering the ast year of his extension. Hutch is making big $ but he is also on a rookie contract. Brockers is gone. Buggs is a role player who should play on vet. min. roughly and I think he re-signs for that too. I want Cominsky back and if I need to lose a Charles Harris to do that I make that move. I go two year deals for role players at this point and I want Cominsky back for this scheme.

Jamaal Williams should be roughly paid where he is paid right now. $4 million but I am not paying RBs overall anything so a $4/5 million/year deal should be affordable noting everyone else is making low dollars overall. I am also ready to walk away if necessary.

Elliott is a viable starter but I am not going to negotiate against myself either. Some folks think he might get $10 million/season but that seems crazy. That is more than Tracy Walker got. To me he ends up in the $5-7 million/season ragne meaning I am paying the whole position group (including Walker) less than Jamaal Adams will make in 2024 ($16.5 million)…Adams is making $11 million in 2023 and maybe we can squeeze all our safeties under that too in 2023?

At CB Okudah is making solid $ and I am adding rookie here for long-term stability, competition and long-term cap management.

I am letting Evan Brown walk at this point as her isn’t better than Vaitai and Vaitia is locked down for two more seasons. But hell, I’m sure Holmes is ready to act if Vaitai has a long-term issue and will not fully recover.

Chark is interesting in that he is really a #2 WR. He is FAR from a game breaker but he is legit and necessary here. He is clutch when healthy (he caught the pass to crush the Packers for example). Tyler Lockett is making $9.7 million in 2023 meaning to me that Chark stays at roughly $10 million/season and I am okay with that. Maybe a touch more and I sign him to a two year deal as we have to extend St. Brown after next season.

Chark, Elliott, Cominsky and jamaal Williams in that order. We will have the most trouble walkign away from Elliott but I expect all these guys back on reasonable deals as I don’t think they are going to get more $ somewhere else. They all have issues on paper that will prevent them from getting stupid $ elsewhere. I also want Buggs back and I think he is roughly a vet. min, guy (maybe a touch more) as we was a late waiver claim that worked out but he is replaceable if necessary.

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#12

I hope you are right because Levi had back surgery too. But, where exactly are you getting that 80% stat from!? Seems really high to me.

#13

That same 6.5M is roughly the cost of signing a guy like Cam Sutton to a 3 year deal for year one.

Cam is younger, healthier, and plays a position of greater need- that is far harder to fill.

#14

He is more than a running back to this team but from a pure position point we can get a SOLID short yardage back in rounds 4-6 so tough to pay him more than he was making but hate to lose him.

for Sure!

I think he is big need and worthy of quite a bit more than vet min. Don’t want to go into the draft not knowing about Levi’s status and forcing a pick to fill a hole.

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#15

I do believe the Lions will bring many back but I also think we’re going to lose some key players too.

I believe a certain amount of turnover is healthy and necessary to continue to advance.

I’m expecting some turnover on both sides of the ball.

To be honest I think we lose the following…

C - Brown and could cut big V. That means OG/OC could be high on our list and we could target one as early as round 2.

Williams is 50/50 in my opinion. If we can get him back on a 1 year deal I think we will try but I do not think we will over pay. Regardless I expect us to lose either Williams or Jackson and draft a RB.

Chark is 30/70 because I think someone out bids us. So WR should be on our radar come draft day and I think TE was already on our radar in the later rounds.

On defense I’m expecting more turnover. I wouldn’t be shocked if we trim the fat at Edge/LB. Bryant, ROkwara, and maybe more could be gone. I also think we will lose a DT or two. Brockers, and Buggs might be gone. I doubt both Board and Woods are back and in the secondary I’m expecting some turnover too. I think we try to get Elliot and AA back.

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#16

I pretty much agree and also Want to point out

MCDC just credited the vets for keeping the lions young team on track and turn it around. ( on manning cast )
I don’t know what it’s worth , or what it’s worth to these players to stay with McDC
But the comments suggested he really valued these guys

#17

I mean, Brad will do what is best. We were in cap hell thanks to Quinn and the likes of flowers and Collins. Brad hasn’t really taken on a single bad contract and we are set up pretty nicely going forward into 2024. My point is: It doesn’t make any sense and it contradicts the consistent moves made thus far to suddenly create cap issues and bad contracts after working so hard to clean up the books. It would be really really out of character.

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#18

I swear, some folks around here are addicted to losing.

#19

Technically he signed Romeo, C Harris, and Walker- I know injuries can’t be predicted but so far any time he’s given more than 1 year or 7M apy it hasn’t worked out.

#20

You can’t hold the injuries against a GM. Romeo got a fair deal after producing for the lions. walker took less money to stay. Chris Harris got a fair deal and the defense that he excelled at year 1 changed completely to a new defense year 2 plus he got injured……the original statement is Brad got ur out of cap hell and to trust him…these three signings do nothing to change that at all.