Mock Off-Season… I’ve seen the light! Maybe…

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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Dead does an incredible job (Phunny too) of keeping all up to date on our cap situation… this article outlines it pretty well, and the OTC link shows the 47 we currently have counting toward our top 51, and what their 23’ cap figures would be to keep vs to cut….

  • Sadly one we dig our draft class we have just about ZERO available funds…. How can that be? Well- we are scheduled to play Brockers, Romeo, Big V, C Harris, and T Walker have a current cumulative 2023 cap bit of 60MM- yup those 5 are scheduled to eat up 28% of our cal….

A) we create zero dollars by cutting Walker, and reports are bud recovery is going well, so it would make more sense to ride out, or possibly restructure him a bit, but we aren’t cutting him

B) by keeping Big V and C Harris- we carry this decision into next year into 2024- and would once again have 5.5M in dead cap hits from them…

C) Brockers is a slam dunk to create 10M for this year…

D) Romeo is the tough one…. We really need DC and AG to be vocal about where he is as an impact player at this point post recovery…. He either costs us 14.5M to keep for 2023, or we eat 7M to cut him.

E) Cabinda is an easy 2M to save….

—-So let’s assume we cut Brockers, C Harris, Big V, and Cabinda and keep Romeo (at least initially)

That would give us 22.5M after signing our draft class…. And we’d be at our 51…. So by signing 7 total players with the available cap space, the bottom 7 figures we are counting would “fall off the cap calculation” and create another 6.5M… AL IN 29MM

  1. Re-sign: Swaggy, Buggs, Commish, and 2 Brad Holmes specials (Elliott, Reynolds, Commish, C Harris, AA)…. All these guys we are considering resigning are guys Holmes found at the “dollar store.” In order to keep digging out of this, he has to find 2-3 low end starters/rotational players at the dollar store again….

  • Swaggy 3 yrs 12.5M w 7M guaranteed (basically a 2 year deal with a vanity year… maybe he Frank Gores?
    -Commish 4 yrs 24M w 8M guarantees… he can 3-4 5T, UT, and BDE so his versatility is key…
    -Buggs- a cheap DT 3/4 that is improving. 2 yrs 5.5M- a nice raise over 900K last year.

  • total of the 3: $9.75MM in 2023 hits…

  1. Extend Jonah Jackson and K Raymond. Raymond is a Detroit Lion, like Swaggy, and his PR ability, his play as a WR4/5 that can directly backup Jamo- it gives us 3 WRs under contract through 2024, and thus one less hole in 24’…ASB will want a big deal next offseason, and Reynolds will likely be gone- I would offer….
  • J Jackson- 4 years and 46M extension… it’s a hometown discount to some extent, but it also insured against injury for him.
  • K Raymond- add 1 year and 3.75M guaranteed for 2024 if he wants it…

—— after all this we need about 4 more players and a successful draft haul, and we should be in great shape for 2024…. Depending on “what we deals we find while free agent shopping, we can still free up the 7.5M by cutting or trading Romeo…

A) I’m likely cutting or trading Romeo for a 5-6th as I’d like to try and get the draft asset, get his 3.5M off books for next year too, and I’d love to use his cap space to bring back Chark and complete the offense for 2-3 more years.

B) Chark- 4 years 50M with 16M guaranteed and 18M in total hits in 2023 and 2024…. If he balls out he’s worth it while Jamo is still cheap… Reynolds is gone saving us 4M next year at WR, and the 1 yr extension of Raymond keeps our top 4 intact til after 2024…. When ASB gets extended, his 2025 year will still be on the cheaper side (see all big WR deals), so we could potentially keep Chark through 3 more years on this deal and likely pay about 33M but only if he earns it.

C) by singing Chark, extending Jackson and Raymond, and locking up Swaggy, we are a RG, OL depth, a RB, and a backup QB from a nice 2-3 year run on offense.

D) with Chark getting Romes 2023 cap space, we will have 20M to sign 3-4 guys….

E) GO BIG- Chauncey Gardner-Johnson for 5 years and 65M…. Cam Sutton 4 years 38am…… Drew Lock- 2 yrs 4.5M

I’d rather have a fierce, strong, young, fast, cheap DL… and opportunistic, veteran, savvy defensive backfield to pair with a top offense….

Draft-

  1. I think we end up J Carter or T Wilson…. There is zero chance a DT with 3 sacks goes #1 overall…. I expect Anderson to reclaim his spot, or a QB trade up.

  2. Gonzalez, Witherspoon, Branch

  3. John Michael Schmitz - RG/C

  4. Tuli Tuipulotu or Mazi Smith

  5. Ji Ayir Brown or Garret Williams

5th- T Spears RB

6th- DTR - QB

6th- OG/OT

3 Likes
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The more I think about Ben back, Swaggy back, Swift in a contract year, our receivers back, and simply upgrading RG…. The more I’m shying away from a RB early with so much DE, DT, S, OG, and LB talent between 18-81….

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Some of those cuts can be post june 1st designation to open up more cap room

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I like this one a lot more than some of your earlier attempts, seems much more in line with the way Brad will conduct an offseason. Maybe it’s a little too heavy on outside DB FAs but I wouldn’t complain. The only real beef I have is with Lock, he’s terrible. I’d rather have a Gabbert or a Henne or some other upside-free backup. They’re better for the locker room. Pete loves him some Drew Lock so he’s not going anywhere anyway. Otherwise I think it’s a good job.

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It’s either Sutton or CGJ. Really doubt the money is there for both. Not even sure we spend that big on one of them if Chark is brought back.

I’ve been hunkered down in this spot for about a month:

If CGJ passes the turd test he’s the perfect fit out of the high profile fAs.

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Thanks. I see Chauncey Gardner-Johnson as our heavy nickel…. The same role we’d be drafting Branch for if we went that route. He’s even got some nickel LB experience like Mark Barron used to….

T Wilson/Paschal
McNeill/Commish
Mazi/Buggs
Hutch/Houston

  • easily can convert to 3-4

Wilson/paschal

Mazi/Buggs

McNeill/Commish

With edge Rotation of Hutch, Houston, Paschal, and JOK-

Okudah/Jacobs
Sutton/Witherspoon
Gardner-Johnson/Walker
Joseph/Iffy

  • in a 3-4 as our backfield.

Okudah
Witherspoon
Sutton
Gardner-Johnson
Elliott

  • in our 4-2-5
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Oh I’m well aware what CGJ brings to us (provided he passes the no-turds test), but like CH said I think it’s one or the other of he and Sutton. 75% of the league will be trying to sign both guys, the odds of us getting both are very slim.

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I agree, while these Philly DBs are dudes for sure…I think with the cap $ it is likely best to go after a guy we are familiar with

Troy Hill Rams NB

And go draft heavy at DB at least

  1. CB
  2. S Especially a guy that can play nickel
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I’m not sure I agree, but I respect your opinion for sure.

If we are cutting ties with Romeo, Big V, Harris, then it’s specifically to add better players.

Right now Romeo will struggle to find snaps over Hutch, Commish, and Paschal on run down, and really struggle to take Houston’s snaps on passing downs. Paying 14.5M for a DE 4/5 isn’t a luxury we SHOULD afford if a guy like Pratt, Sutton, Dean, etc could be had for the same 7.5M in 23’ we’d save on Romeo.

If we cut Big V and C Harris- we continue to thin out the OG and DE spot, but those are projected to be 2 of the more robust positions to draft at our slots….

We either pay Big V and Romeo 25M or we spend that money on guys like Sutton or Pratt and CGJ….

It’s a bit like Tetris….

T Wilson, John Michael Schmitz, CGJ, Sutton

Or….

Romeo Okwara, Big V, C Gonzalez, and J Battle….

  • considering the above group gives us 4-5 years on all 4 starters, and group 2 not only brings us 2 likely holes to fill next year, but brings some additional dead cap to the 24’ books as well….

I am supremely confident that CGJ will bring some DAWG to our secondary, bringing sacks, ints, and sure tackling. He can play heavy nickel or SS….

CB- Sutton- Witherspoon- Okudah- Jacobs - Lucas
S- CGJ, Joseph, Walker, Iffy

  • there is zero doubt we can afford it if we make the cuts- assuming 5 years and 70M for CGJ and 4 yrs 40M are accurate- we shall see.

That is about 14M in year one hits for those 2…. Same as 23’ cap savings for Big V and Romeo…

There is no way to insinuate we can afford to keep V and Romeo, but not afford 2 free agents between 10-16M APY…. Maybe it’s or Troy Hill, or B Murphy over Sutton?

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So maybe we spend it on….

Pratt, Troy Hill and CGJ

Hutch/Houston
McNeill/Levi
Buggs/B Jones
Commish/Paschal

Pratt/Pittman
Rodrigo/Barnes

Okudah/Jacobs
T Hill/Lucas
CGJ/Walker
Joseph/Iffy
Walker/Iffy

This would be our D before the draft!!!

Add a DE, DT, and CB in the top 81….

Even without the draft that’s not a bad spread….

T Wilson
Witherspoon
John Michael Schmitz
Mazi Smith
Ji Ayir Brown

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Then I go CGJ and take CB at 18….

CGJ
Walker
K Joseph
Okudah
Witherspoon

That could be a really good DB group…. Add in a Troy Hill and cheap thumper vet safety… any suggestions ?

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:joy::joy::joy:
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Seems far too ambitious but I’m not a cap expert.

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I think there are a lot of mid-level DB signings who could come in and really do a job for us like Elliott did. Nik Needham, Sean Murphy-Bunting (who’s from Michigan), Tre Herndon, Darius Phillips, David Long or Tony Brown, guys like that. Or even a vet like Logan Ryan or Jason Verrett on a 1-year deal. There are plenty of options, and I have faith in Brad to figure out which fit best with us.

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I think lions base next yr will be a 5 man front. Like they used late in yr when defense showed much improvement

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Yes but at some point I’d prefer not to have to retool 5-6 starting spots every year……

  • I apologize if anyone else has made this claim already, but if not, let me be the first to say……

“We are finally in spot to sign outside free agents, and not just because we have a little spare change…. but we are finally on the OTHER SIDE OF COIN!”

For years we’d pay up for guys like Big V, Rick Wagner, T Flowers, etc that were mid to late round guys who managed solid production in their previous roles. The problem? In their previous roles they were surrounded by more talent, and had superior coaching….

I’d love the group that is coaching up Jacobs, Kerby, Rodrigo, etc to get their hands on some guys like CGJ, B Murphy, etc…

We are finally get as much or more out of our free agents, than their previous teams got…

C Harris
Swaggy
Reynolds
Raymond
Elliott
AA
Commish
Buggs

Imagine what they could do with our foundation in place, and some more talented guys?

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