I Made a few edits within that post……
What did the Vikings come away with?
What did the Cardinals gain?
What did the Eagles gain?
The Jets might have done best… getting a late 3rd rounder… 1 year closer to Aaron Rodgers’ retirement.
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My biggest concern with Holmes has been his handsomeness becoming a distraction.
So far he has done an incredible job of keeping that beautiful cranium behind the scenes.
Saying Holmes would be my choice of any GM in the league isn’t an indictment. We also haven’t won a SB, and while one could be on the horizon, it’s far from a guarantee.
My slight criticisms were pretty concise and nobody in this thread has effectively rebutted a single one.
——There is a difference between “prove it deals” and bargain shopping. Brad has been a savant t bargain shopping….
Bargains- Glasgow, AA, Reynolds, Raymond, D Elliott, Comish, Benito
Prove It Deals- T Williams, DJ Chark, Davenport, CJGJ, E Moseley, Zietler
——We shall see how Davenport and Zietler pan out, but so far anyone getting over 4M AAV on a one year deal hasn’t really worked out at all….
—-Brad has killed with with power 5 conference players with current health and production…
Sewell, McNeill, Barnes, St Brown, Hutch, Rodrigo, Iffy, Branch, LaPorta, Gibbs, Campbell, Jefferson, Green, Mahogany, Wingo, Vaki
—— players already injured or very small school projects
Levi O, Jamo, Paschal, Hooker, Bro Mart, Mitchell, Rakestraw, Manu, Sorsdal
It’s not to say that a few guys from the injured or small school and prove it categories won’t eventually prove it…
But right now I’m not feeling awesome about Zietler day one, nor Rake or Moseley being fully ready early, nor Davenport giving us 13-15 starts, nor Bro Mart being able to stand in adequately for Reader
I just wish guys like Kobie Turner, YaYa Diaby, Brennan Jackson, O Torrence, SVP etc would have been taken.
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Was Amon Ra or McNeill a “high floor player,” or just a damn good pair of picks?
Puka had 1500 yards and Turner 9 sacks as rookies… hell Byron Young also had 8 sacks at edge for the Rams last year.
We may have a starter in Mahogany and one in Wingo, I loved both. I just wish we had more of those picks in rounds 3-5 the last 3 years is all.
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No of course I would take the whole pie brother.
I’m simply stating that the 1 yr “prove it” deals for 3.5-10M haven’t really panned out… at all!
Chark, M Hughes- up to 10M and up to 3.5M
CJGJ, E Moseley- contracts between 5-6.5M
Davenport, Zietler- up to 10M and up to 6M
- so far we haven’t gotten much.
Same goes for the high injury risk and small school draft picks.
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Again… you are over analyzing
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You put a LOT of great stuff in this thread that shows some hits and misses by Holmes.
To answer the thread question to the best of my ability, I wouldn’t characterize it as a “Gambling Problem” per se.
The entire thing is a gamble for every team. You are betting that these 21 year old kids will become future stars/starters.
Players that have been great at the college level and have all the athletic traits, stats, and relatively injury free are 1/2 rounders. Those with significant gaps or question marks move down. The bust rate is high and most NFL players don’t come from the 1st round and in fact there are a ton of UDFAs that fill rosters every year.
Quarterbacks are their own beast because the position is so much harder. Brock ‘Mr. Irrelevant’ Purdy is a perfect testament to how much of a gamble it is. The 49ers moved up for Trent and cut him for their last pick.
I think there are a lot of circumstances around Brad’s Journey that are important context explaining some of the mistakes. Perriman and T. Williams he was in a brand new building with mostly unknown scouts and almost no cap to work with. Levi was coming off a covid off year so there was very little scouting on a ton of players.
Brad does seem to lock in on his guys and is willing to overpay for them as evidenced in all the trade ups. Is this a gamble or wanting to ensure that the guys he wants are still available?
As to the Projects like Bromart, Sorsdal, Houston… He does seem to be trying to find guys with +traits but small school/production that are sleepers. Time will tell how these pan out. In the later rounds you have to make concessions somewhere. With Rodrigo, he had short arms and was passed over but was otherwise an athletic, highly-productive, captain in college.
Lastly, let’s talk Hooker. Many had him as a 1st rounder before the injury. Yes he came from a gimmic one read offense at Tennesee. Goff came from the Bear Raid RPO offense. So did Mahomes. You never know if a guy is going to be able to handle everything. Hooker seemed like a more athletic Goff with + Accuracy, which is what Goff is known for.
There is a new mental test that supposedly Brock Purdy aced that gave the 49ers reason to think he was worth drafting. It challenges your ability to process at a high speed. Can’t remember the name of it. Wonderlic is the old one that is basically an IQ test and is a data point, but really only eliminates terrible candidates. This new one may be a way to see if a person can visually process a ton of data at once, which is super crucial for a QB. Will that become the new “RAS” score for QBs?
For those that are worried about Hooker throwing balls into the dirt and being inaccurate so far in camp, I’m not worried about that at all. He is having to process a lot more information at once than he has ever had to before. Goff had to year one and two as well. Goff had a good center with him that helped do all the protection calls so he didn’t have to. Ragnow/Glascow could do that for Hooker too if needed. Ben can simplify the offense for him if need be, but why do that in training camp?
Hooker is overthinking right now and it’s expected that he will struggle if they are challenging him to play like Goff. Love that!
Overall Holmes has done a great job. Far from perfect but he’s been super thoughtful about his picks. He may be a bit jittery/antsy during the draft and overpays a bit, but he’s gotten the guys he wants and they’ve generally done very well.
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All fair points… great post!!!
Honest question- let’s say the medical concerns regarding Mahogany are real. Let’s assume Comish is out for much of the year, and let’s presume there are some health issues for Davenport, Moseley, Jamo, Gibbs, Levi, Ragnow and Branch- how do you feel?
All teams have injuries, and so will we. My issue is that we moved on from Jonah, and last year we were very lucky with the rest of our OL health. We brought in a 34 year old guard that was banged up on a 1 year… a complete project in Manu, and now it’s clear why Mahogany fell- so despite using 3rd and 6th rounders and paying a FA, it’s hard to say our OL depth is any better for 2024…
Our WR depth isn’t better. Our RB is very similar. Our TE room is the same.
At this point last year we had…
Sutton
Moseley/Jacobs
Branch
CJGJ
Kerby
- set to be our starting DBs
C Davis/Rakestraw
Arnold
Branch/Robertson
Iffy
Kerby
- definitely better, and more depth for sure, but we used a 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 3rd to do it. We should be a lot better.
Otherwise we stabilized our roster from last year.
Just sucks that half the guys we signed and or drafted may not contribute.
What exactly do we know now, about Mahogney and this health issue, that led to his fall?
There’s some medical stuff going on with Mahogany that was the main reason he fell,” Brugler said. It’s unclear exactly what the direct issue may be, but Mahogany did tear his ACL prior to the 2022 season due to an off-field “freak accident.” But he played in every game in 2023 (besides opting out of the bowl game).May 3, 2024
You ever hear a coach this cloak and dagger, and pessimistic about a cold or flu….?
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So we don’t know now what the issue is and if it is related to what happened in 2022.
Brother- my only gripe or concern the the percentage of players with high level uncertainty.
Jonah Jackson, CJGJ, Harris, Romeo, Reynolds, Cam Sutton, Moseley, Jacobs, Buggs, Benito
LG, SS, DE2, DE4, WR2, CB1, CB2, CB3, DT2, DT3
Those are the guys who we slated for the spots in order below at this point last year. We knew last year that we were paper thin at WR, CB, DE and DT with regards to starter level talent.
The desire to draft Carter, Witherspoon, Gonzalez, and constant posts about JSN in here were evidence of that. There was a ton of desperation in here to draft a top edge, or at least trade for DL help at the trade line- Young or Sweat….
Our solution for LG? Move Glasgow away from where he thrived last year… thus creating a hole at RG- and we filled that with one year vet. Let’s say our starting OL is as good, is our depth any better? How?
Is the Iffy, Kerby, Branch combo more confidence inspiring than CJ, Kerby and Branch at this book last year? Same to me…
They were raving about C Harris, and we hoping Romeo could bounce back at this time last year…. Now we have Davenport and not much else to replace them, and could be without Comish for awhile.
We are more excited about Arnold than we were about Sutton, more excited about Davis than Moseley, and more excited about Rake than Jacobs.
I was only looking at the Mahogney illness point.
Wasn’t getting into the other analysis in your posts.
That’s fair.
The whole point of my post was health and availability though. lol
Levi
Jamo
Paschal
Hooker
Bro Mart
Manu
Mahogany
Tyrell
Moseley
CJGJ
Davenport
Big V- restructure
Romeo- restructure
Those a premium picks, usage of free agency money, and projected spots on the depth chart, and all had questions or serious questions day one. None have worked out yet.
Even if 2-3 come around this year, the batting average is still bad.
Incorrect.
Only Levi and Jamo were premium picks, and Jamo is actually working out – his tape from the final 6-7 games he played shows he’s ready for a breakout. With Jamo, it wasn’t his injury that held him back in Year 2, but his immaturity.
The rest of the picks… you’re overvaluing them. Notably, Holmes doesn’t just go for developmental players in the later rounds – he has a variety of strategies. But we should absolutely swing for the fences a couple times a year on developmental guys – that’s the only way to pick up extra high-ceiling talent with middling draft capital. Otherwise you’re just swimming in replacement-level starters at best. We are not Green Bay.
Developmental guys, you should expect them to break out in Year 3. In other words, this is the year to evaluate Paschal – not Manu, Mahog, BroMart, or Hooker.
(FYI, Mahogany was at OTAs. Given he’s quarantined from the team – only attending meetings remotely – it’s reasonable to assume he picked up a contagious disease after spring camp, not that he’s dealing with a chronic medical issue. It’s said he dropped to the 6th round because one leg is longer than the other.)
The free agency money was spent conservatively, by and large. Other than the Okwara contract (he was a healthy stud going into 2021) he’s shored up holes with cheap replacement-level talent so they can afford to lock up their top-notch home-grown talent. Concerns about the reliable health of Zeitler and Reader would be more apt to your argument, but even then, we can’t really say until after the season – same for Davenport, who cost much less.
And again, most of his free agent signings haven’t been guys like that. They’ve been guys like Josh Reynolds, CJ Moore, Alex Anzalone, and Derrick Barnes. Only a few contracts have actually been “gambles.” He doesn’t actually swing for the fences that much in free agency.
Yea, hindsight- 20/20 is great and very easy I just don’t get caught up in your analyzing
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Speaking of very rich Jonah… he’s already injured… really surprising
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What happened to him?
Left practice yesterday…arm in sling today I read. Not sure how serious.
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