My take on drafting a QB

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
21

If you draft a QB in round 3 and he turns into a solid back-up that is a win. It is a rarity to have a QB play all 17 games. I have no problem taking a shot at a QB in the 3rd who can be developmental and has a chance to be groomed as a future starter. I understand the crap shoot, but if you hit on a guy like Wilson, Prescott, or to a lesser degree Carr, Hurts, and Cousins you have really sped up the rebuold process at a very low cost.

The hit rate on a typical 3rd rounder to become a 5 year or more +starter is probably less then 30%. To me if there is a guy at QB you really like you take the plunge

22

The hit rate on 3rd round QBs is far, far lower than that though. You named one who hit in Wilson - the rest of the ones you named were either 4th or 2nd rounders, technically - but even factoring them in, the hit rate is gonna be lower than 5%. If you go back and look over the past decade, you’ll find 50 guys who didn’t pan out and 2 who did (with Davis Mills tbd).

2 Likes
23

LOL. You are WAY overestimating the efficacy of drafting a quarterback in the mid rounds. This is from another thread:

1 Like
24

Here’s my assessment of our backup QB situation in conjunction with the direction of the offense and compatability with Goff’s mold, so you don’t have to change the entire offense if he goes down.

Boyle sucks and is no better than PS material. Blough apparently can’t beat him out for 2nd seat. They should both be gone.

I’m of the mind that as long as medical concerns permeate the landscape, a team needs 3 QB’s on the active roster and 1 on the PS. It’s just prudence for right now, no one wants to be Denver last year.

I’m going to go back to something @wesleysh21 has said many times. Your backup QB should be CAPABLE of leading you to a 2-2 record over a four game stretch. That’s a good yardstick, but how much do you invest in someone you hope never sees the field?

My answer, not much. The offensive philosophy of this staff is ground and pound with game manager throws mixed in. Maybe a couple deep shots thrown in, but anyone thinking we need Kurt Warner to manage the Greatest Show on Turf isn’t matching their desires with the design of this staff. A high end Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer is more than adequate.

That being said, there’s definitely some positives and flexibility in who the Lions pick and choose. Boyle darn near won a game, so it’s not that hard. This offensive line is going to give an advantage to whoever you stick behind it.

I don’t think you need to invest heavily, but I do think you need to have plenty of capable, warm bodies to fill things out, compete, and find one that’s capable of going 2-2. If the bar is set at Better than Boyle, I would be completely comfortable in taking this year’s class, and have Stevie Wonder throw darts to find someone better.

I’m all for a sling mud at the wall approach. My strategy is to sign a CFL guy for a veteran presence, maybe someone like Trevor Harris or Bo Levi Mitchell. I’d like to draft two from the 5th round down. Remember, I’m just looking for Better than Boyle, not Brady. Cole from SE Louisiana, Nick Starkel, Purdy, whoever is there and Better than Boyle. Sign a UDFA to round things out. Keep the best two on the active roster and one for the PS while watching other teams cuts.

Locking up some low deal guys is a good bridge for dealing with Goff as well. If the Lions go QB in 23, no one is going to care about hurting the ego of a low round pick that will be there with a year under their belt to provide some continuity and insight to a draftee.

25

I’d draft Bailey Zappe with our 3rd round compensatory pick, if he’s still there. I say if because I think he’ll show well at the Senior Bowl and be viewed as Mac Jones-lite with similar accuracy and processing skills. Cannon arms are so 2020 these days…

I suppose if Willis is there at #34, you have to take him, but that seems unlikely considering what Rat Jr had to pay for Trey Lance.

26

For what it is worth, this article has him as the #7 QB in the draft. Had never heard of him before you mentioned him.
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/top-10-quarterbacks-in-the-2022-nfl-draft-kenny-pickett-matt-corral-continue-their-ascension/

27

YES! A Drew Stanton type of pick.

Like it

28

A) Stanton was a Rd 2 pick. Compare his impact to that of someone like Swift.

B) Look at the list of QBs I posted. How many of them would you prefer to Amon-Ra, Graham Glasgow, JRM, Jonah Jackson, Golladay, etc.? Because that’s what you sacrifice when you take a flyer hoping to land the next Chris Simms or Tom Savage with a third or fourth rounder.

2 Likes
29

YES. Annnnd…we still need other stuff. I wouldn’t go the route if I didn’t think he could develop over time.

30

Personally I don’t think there is such a thing as an “NFL ready” rookie QB. Especially with so few college teams running NFL offenses.

58.9% Completion Percentage
3,418 Passing Yards
10 Passing TD’s
17 INT’s
69.6% QBR

That’s Trevor Lawrence, the sure fire #1OA pick QB that was the most NFL ready QB in last years draft. (Allegedly). The reality is even great QB prospects will need an adjustment period in the NFL. You can only hope that he does adjust and you really do not know until they do, or don’t. Or like Stafford, get stuck in a crap organization where fans will say he sucks because he can’t win… until he is clinching a playoff birth on a 12 win team with a game left to play with a real team…

2 Likes
31

Im a be laughed outta this place when I mock us trading UP to grab Pickett. No better time then 2022 for a new qb. OLine strength, running game looking like it could be good. Safety net TE. It’s time.

1 Like
32

I won’t laugh you out of this place. If the staff loves a QB, then it would be criminal not to go and get him. I just disagree with you wholeheartedly that any QB in this class is that sort of prospect.

3 Likes
33

This guy tuirned out to be pretty good too… as a TE. :grinning:

Can we also acknowledge that Russell Wilson would never make it to the 3rd round in the current NFL?

He was drafted 10 years ago… before the NFL rule changes made it almost difficult to tackle a QB without drawing a roughing call… and Russell + Kyler have made NFL people get over the belief that short QBs can’t have success in the NFL.

The prevalence of spread offenses and increased use of shotgun in the NFL has made it easier for spread QBs as well.

And… the rookie “salary cap” was implemented just prior to the year Russell was drafted.
When in doubt… teams are drafting QBs earlier now because it isn’t as much of a financial gamble.
There have been 20 QBs drafted in round 1 over the past 5 drafts.
In the final 5 years (2006-2010) before the rookie wage cap… there were 11 QBs taken in 1st round.
Or… from 2001-2010… there were 26 QBs taken in 1st round for a 10 year period.

2 Likes
34

Willis is a tough one to project in my opinion.

Small school QB’s are projected high all the time and most good ones go between round 2 and 4.

I really like Willis but he’s small school and he has some areas to work on. I do not think he’s a round 1 lock because he’s a project. Very few QB’s go round two for a reason. Their either good enough to go round one or their a developmental guy.

Could he go round one? …. Sure … but I have a feeling he won’t. Personally I like Strong almost as much as him and most everyone thinks Strong will go round 3.

It only takes one GM to see the potential and take the gamble though. Teams are willing to do that with QB’s so who knows.

2 Likes
35

I like Purdy and I think he’s more than a game manager. He’s carried that team to victory more than once. But he’s been inconsistent. With the right coaching I think he has starter potential.

36

Wasn’t talking about QBs, was talking about all positions in the 3rd round.

37

Tommy Frazier is thought of one of the great leaders in college football
History and yet all of his teammates hated his guts. You win and then you’re considered a leader.

38

Dak, Cousins, Mahomes, Rogers, Garoppolo, and Brady were all developmental QB’s who started their careers as a back-up until they developed into a started.

1 Like
39

You can say the same thing for first rounders too.

I look at it this way. Of the 32 passing leaders in 2021 just about 30% of them come from outside of round one.

Mills - 3rd
Brady - 6th
Carr - 2nd
Prescott - 4th
Cousins - 4th
Wilson - 3rd
Garoppolo - 2nd
Heinicki - Undrafted
Hurts - 2nd
Brissett- 3rd

So starting level QB’s can be found outside of round one.

40

Why is everyone so concerned? We already have a QB2. Just ask @BigNatty

1 Like