NFC North Overview

I want to take a look at each team in the North and see where they were last year and what has changed on their roster/staff since 2022. I won’t bother doing a deep dive on the Lions here since we are all up to speed on them. But I found this chart showing expected wins vs actual wins from 2022. It is interesting because we all know the Vikings had some quite fraudulent wins. This will take them down a notch from their actual wins to their expected wins.

Last year Actual wins: 13
Last year Expected wins: 8.5
2023 Fanduel Win O/U: 8.5

Veteran Additions: CB Byron Murphy, EDGE Marcus Davenport, TE Josh Oliver, DL Dean Lowry, LB Troy Reeder, DT Jaquelin Roy
Draft Additions: WR Jordan Addison, CB Mekhi Blackmon, S Jay Ward, DT Jaquelin Roy, QB Jaren Hall, RB Dewayne McBride
Subtractions: WR Adam Thielen, RB Dalvin Cook (will be traded or released soon), LB Eric Kendricks, TE Irv Smith, CB Patrick Peterson, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, CB Cameron Dantzler, CB Kris Boyd
Staff Changes: Fired DC Ed Donatell, hire Brian Flores
Net Change: I expect that the net changes from this team make them a slightly worse roster than last year. On average across the league, I would say that most teams feel they have improved from last year, so getting worse slightly is getting worse dramatically comparatively to the rest of the league. I think this team takes a BIG step back from 13 wins, and even a slight step back from their 8.5 expected wins last year. I do think that Kirk could improve with a second year in this offense and they will still be able to put up some points, but I think this will be a team competing for one of the last playoff spots, and then gets their hopes crushed by the visiting Lions week 16.
Prediction: 7-10

Last year Actual wins: 8
Last year Expected wins: 8.5
2023 Fanduel Win O/U: 7.5

Veteran Additions: S Tarvarius Moore, LS Matt Orzech
Draft Additions: EDGE Lukas Van Ness, TE Luke Musgrave, WR, Jayden Reed, TE Tucker Kraft, DL Colby Woolen, QB Sean Clifford, WR Dontayvion Wicks, DL Karl Brooks, K Anders Carlson, CB Carrington Valentine, RB Lew Nichols, S Anthony Johnson Jr., WR Grant Dubose
Subtractions: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Allen Lazard, WR Randall Cobb, DT Jarran Reed, DL Dean Lowry, TE Robert Tonyan, K Mason Crosby
Staff Changes: Added Greg Williams as Defensive Passing Game Coordinator
Net Change: No surprise here that the Packers were not big players in free agency. This is a rebuild year for them to see if Jordan Love is it or not. They are most likely worse than last year losing Aaron Rodgers and Allen Lazard, and replacing them with Jordan Love and a bunch of rookie weapons on offense. Jordan Love will do just enough to keep them out of the running for Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, and they will give him another shot in 2024 to show if he is the guy or not.
Prediction: 6-11

Last year Actual wins: 3
Last year Expected wins: 5
2023 Fanduel Win O/U: 7.5

Veteran Additions: WR DJ Moore, LB TJ Edwards, LB Tremaine Edmunds, OG Nate Davis, DL DeMarcus Walker, RB Travis Homer, QB PJ Walker, DT Andrew Billings, TE Robert Tonyan, RB D’onta Foreman, LB Dylan Cole, DL Rasheem Green, P Ryan Anderson,
Rookie Additions: OT Darnell Wright, DT Gervon Dexter, CB Tyrique Stevenson, DL Zacch Pickens, RB Roschon Johnson, WR Tyler Scott, LB Noah Sewell, CB Terrell Smith, DT Travis Bell, S Kendall Williamson
Subtractions: QB Trevor Siemian, DE Al Quadin Muhammad, RB David Montgomery, OT Riley Reiff,
Staff Changes: None
Net Change: The Bears will be one of the more improved teams in the league. They were better than their record showed last year, as displayed by their expected wins at 5 rather than their 3 actual wins. I think Fields will develop more as a passer with DJ Moore as a solid WR1 option. They have beefed up both the OL and DL, but are still nowhere near elite level. I thought they had a solid but unspectacular draft, but they are building the right way, and should be very competitive next year after another strong draft with multiple high picks.
Prediction: 8-8-1


Hoping the bears continue to suck.
Very confident the packers and Vikings will

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How were the Rams only one win under expected?

This metric doesn’t take a preseason record prediction and try to compare it to the final record. It is a hindsight metric that looks at how games actually played out and then attempts to correct for outliers or anomaly’s. For instance look at the Bears. The preseason prediction was 7.5 wins. How things played out they are saying the Bears should have won 5 games. They only won 3 games. They underachieved by 2 games, not 4.5.

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The Preseason prediction is for 2023. The first two numbers represent last year’s performance.

What is expected wins based on? Is it who is favored for each game? Or is it set at the start of the year, based on pre-season predictions?

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That is based on how the team performed last year. The Vikings had several games that they pulled off, but they were more like an 8.5 win team by the analytics than a 13 win team.

As many of us were saying all last season the Vikes were frauds. They did have a decent offense, but the defense was atrocious. And as soon as the playoffs came around they made Daniel Jones look like Mahomes.

We are going to tear them a new bunghole.

paper toilet GIF


They won 13 games while literally giving up more points than they scored!

427 points allowed, boy that sure does sound familiar… lol cough, cough

Bears got better. BUT. Not that much better. Think of it like the lions last year. Flirting with the wildcard. They still have Justin fields as a QB. 1/4th of the drives end in a turn over. Horrible. I expect 7-8 wins.

Green Bay is in a rebuild. Love stinks. That defense is a wreck. 6-7 wins unless Love balls out.

Vikings HUGE step back. They lost 5-6 bug time starters and only added 2 decent starters in the draft or fa. They got super lucky last year as rhe graph sows. 7-8 wins. Flirting with a WC.

Lions 10-11 wins. Plain and simple

Wow. You have waaaay too much time on your hands my industrious friend. Thanks for this.

NFC North is much improved. Those changes in DC by Vikes and Pack will matter.
Bears are loading up on talent with four 1st round pix in next couple years too.

Thank God our HC is a better motivator than all of theirs and our OC is smarter than all of theirs.

You guys and your math. Lost me half way through the opening post…

Yup! Top ten picks for 5 or 6 years straight ought to get them some nice talent.

…and better looking!


I agree that none of them will be over .500 in wins. I dont believe in any of those qbs.

Again I looked at the schedule and only 1 clear game the Lions would/should lose and that is the season opener on the road against the returning SB champs.

I will be disappointed if they finish with fewer than 11 wins and honestly I think 13/14 wins is possible.

Consider they should go 6-0 in the North. Going 7-4 in the rest of the games seems very plausable.

And yes I am in South Korea pounding drinks so I may be a bit optimistic right now.

Go F**** Lions baby!!!


Me and this guy are gonna get along juuuuuuust fantastically!