Not So Fast, My Friend: Why AR-15 Could Go To Carolina

I’ve seen 2 or 3 games where Stroud looks like a number 1 pick. And, I’ve seen 2 or 3 games where Bryce doesn’t look like a number 1 pick. I’ve seen zero games where AR15 looks like he belongs anywhere in the general vicinity of the number 1 pick.

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Utah game

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Just as bad of a passer as Scam Newton too.

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Annie Potts GIF by Ghostbusters

Cam was awesome at his peak

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If…if Anthony Richard shows elite recognition and response via S2, then that will immensely simplify the coaching task of unleashing his power on the NFL.

It’s a fascinating draft year.

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AR processes information very quickly. Its what he does with that information that needs developing.

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Nobody will ever confuse AR for Tom Brady or Drew Brees. He is Lamar Jackson 2.0. A team is not drafting him to sit on the bench for a year or two thinking he will be Mahomes in 3 years. He is ready to play now and do what he does run the ball and once in a while hit a big one to a wide open WR on a broken play. This player is almost impossible to defend unless he is turning the ball over.
The downfall of having a QB like this is the length of his career is essentially the same as a RB. The only one i seen have an extended career was Michael Vick but he had a couple years to give his body a rest in between. Vick was also very elusive so he didn’t take a lot of big hits. The advantage is you basically have a one man offense for 5 years and spend all your money on defense. The Ravens have a great TE but Jackson has been their whole offense for the last 4 years.

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OK.

I’m saying I don’t know because I and fans don’t have information that I consider important in his evaluation, because he’s played in so few college games, and because I allow for a future where substantial accuracy improvement is possible.

If I’m understanding you correctly, what you’ve seen of Anthony Richardson makes his improvement to an upper tier quarterback highly unlikely.

Do I understand you correctly?

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He really doesn’t impress me as being an equal of Lamar Jackson though. He’s certainly not at the level of Jackson as a passer. And I don’t think he’s at Jackson level as a runner either. It’s not just about measurable physical attributes. Jackson is a natural runner, with natural instincts, that I’ve never seen equaled by any other QB. What Bryce Young is to pocket awareness, Jackson is to setting up defenders as a runner. He just has the magic.

That would be a dumb pick by Carolina. Dude has the 4th lowest completion percentage of any 1st round pick. You never see a dude have a mediocre college career and be a stud in the NFL. I wouldn’t touch him before the 3rd round.

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I agree Richardson is not that elusive in the open field but he is strong enough to break tackles and the speed to take off for big plays. To me he has a running style more like Josh Allen than Lamar. But Josh Allen don’t have that kind of speed. Actually I would say more like Cam Newton as a runner just faster. I think the kid is pathetic as a passer right now but even if he completes 50% of his throws without turnovers he can be effective moving the ball.

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While I think Young is the pick, you could make the case for any of the QBs—including AR.

Frank Reich is the key to the whole thing: Daboll made magic out of Allen and got Daniel Jones, who was left for dead, $40m a year.

Reich might be the type of guy that can take any talent — regardless of how raw they are — and make them a star.

What doesn’t make sense is Carolina has zero offensive weapons. None. It was Moore and a cloud of dust. But they DO have an offensive line. Could plan to re-sign Darnold as a bridge and sit the top pick for year until they reload in 2024? I dunno.

They have the benefit of being in a terrible division.

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I really hope some team reaches for AR15 before we pick, so I can breath a little easier when that pick is up. The chance of Carolina trading up all the way to 1 for AR15 though and passing on two vastly superior QBs, I have as sh*t to none. They’re taking either Young or Stroud.

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I don’t think you have anything to worry about. They have their franchise QB and will continue building the rest of the team.

Many quarterbacks struggle in their first full year as a starter. I have taken several players who are currently NFL starters and listed them below with their numbers during their FIRST YEAR as a full time starter. Anthony Richardson’s season this last year was his first year as a full time starter. Wanna guess who is on this list? There is also a qb who is going in the first round this year on this list…

College completion stats of notable NFL qbs first year as a starter: On this list there are multiple pro bowlers, super bowl winners, MVP winners and individuals who have taken their team to a super bowl.

Hell, there is a qb here who numbers for 3 years were 55% completion in college and he won a Super Bowl.

QB A: 13 Games, 52.8% 1749 yards 6.8 YPA 7 TDS 13 ints 109 rating.
QB B: 12 GAMES, 60.4% 3508 yards 6.6 YPA 18 TDS 1O INTS 123 rating
QB C: 10 GAMES. 62.1% 1514 yards 7.8 YPA 8 TDS 5 INTS 135 rating
QB D: 13 GAMES: 57.8 % 2894 yards 7.6 YPA 16 tds 5 ints 133 rating
QB E: 14 GAMES: 56% 3203 yards 8.6 YPA 28 tds 15 ints 144 rating
QB F: 15 GAMES: 62.8% 2780 yards 7.3 YPA 23 tds 9 ints 139 rating
QB G: 12 GAMES: 56.3 % 2575 yards 8.9 YPA 13 tds 4 ints143 rating
QB H: 12 GAMES: 53.8 % 2549 yards 7.8 YPA 17 tds 9 ints 131 rating
QB I: 11 GAMES: 54.5% 1955 yards 7.1 YPA 17 tds 1 int 133 rating

Does this guys last name start with a B?

Nope.

It was be G-O-F-F.

Tennessee.