OK, so how does Sutton affect the draft?

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Well, I disagree. And that’s fine, we all have different evaluations for most of these guys. I love Bijan as a prospect but I don’t think he’s an all-timer. I don’t think he’s as good as Barkley. For me he’s got basically the same grade as Zeke and that’s great, Zeke was a great prospect and has been a pretty good pro.

The best RB prospect I ever saw (outside of my heavily biased take on Barry which totally turned out to be right) was another former Longhorn, Ricky Williams, and he didn’t have the pro career he wanted either. As a prospect, I don’t think Robinson’s in the same stratosphere.

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That is perfectly understandable. Everyone has different evaluations, whether that is us on a message board or actual NFL scouts. Thats what makes this process so interesting to me.

I mentioned on this board before but, the last two years my “pound the table” guys were Sewell in 2021 and Hutch in 2022. Just so happened they both landed in our laps. There are questions on just about every prospect at the top of this draft. If I had to pick one guy I would go to bat for as an unquestioned star it is Bijan.

If it wasn’t for positional value he would be a no brainer at 6. Positional value is real though and that is why he isn’t an option for me at 6. Once you get into the 2nd half of round 1 it is a lot more palatable. Najee Harris was selected at 24 just a couple years ago and the difference between him and Robinson as prospects is enormous to me.

Bijan is LaDanian Tomlinson, although he doesn’t quite have the long speed LT did.

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I mentioned this in another thread, but you also have to include all the turnovers the defense created in those 10 games. I’m still skeptical about the defense as well. But, if we are going to use the stats, you can’t ignore turnovers created. Okudah’s pick 6 TD basically won us the 1st Bears game. Hutch and Kerby combined for 7 INT’s in those 10 games. Not sure exactly how many turnovers we forced during that stretch but I’d bet it was top 10 in the nfl. We barely beat the Packers in both games, if Kerby doesn’t keep picking off Rodgers, do we win those games!?

So, yes still skeptical on the defense, but do see some bright spots to build on. Oh saw above we created 16 turnovers in the final 10 games, that’s pretty, pretty, pretty good!

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Me and you spoke about this before, but I wasn’t quite as high on Barkely. The talent was clearly special, but there was just something lacking in his game. To put it in Jamaal Williams terms, I don’t think Barkely is a “Dawg”. You give Jamaal Williams Barkely’s physical gifts and that would be a special player.

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I think he’s Edgerrin James.

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Can’t ignore them, but they’re not something you can rely on either from year to year or even game to game. They’re so fickle. AO had 6 INTS in 2021…how many did he have last year?

It isn’t that they didn’t improve, but top 10 defense? Good? They’re middle of the road at best, but I think they’re just bad, but should continue to improve as the young guys gain more experience.

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I loved Sewell and Hutch as well, both were my #1 non-QB overall prospects (Sewell was #2 overall behind Lawrence). But those were easy guys to love. Bijan’s an easy guy to love too. So are JSN and Skornoski. I’d be very surprised if any of those guys weren’t very good.

The biggest reason I don’t want Robinson is that I believe we can have the #1 rushing offense, like, by a lot, with someone we drafted in the 2-4th rounds. We don’t need to spend the capital it’s gonna cost to get Robinson, we’re gonna be awesome anyway. And if we stumble across a star in the middle-rounds (and personally I think 3-4 of them will turn out to be stars), then we’ll hardly be missing out on anything.

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I don’t think thats a terrible comp either. Would James be worth the 18th overall pick to you? He was a HOF’er after all.

As crazy as it sounds, I would be disappointed if that was as good as Bijan was. James was a very good player who played with one of the best QB’s on all time. I think he belongs in the hall of very good, but not the HOF.

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“how does Sutton affect the draft”

We draft 2 CBs instead of 3.

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Is Bijan/Forbes that stark of a difference between a Porter (or Banks)/Charbonnet combo (I don’t think GIbbs lasts to our pick in the 2nd).

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All valid points. I think everyone has good reason to be skeptical on the defense. I mean just watch the Seahawks game or the Panthers game and you will be losing your freaken mind how bad we were. haha

But @BigNatty said above the truth is likely somewhere in the middle. Sutton was a good addition, so was John Fox! Now lets add some more talent in free agency and the draft. Even if we can be mediocre on Defense, I think we can win the North.

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Well Charbonnet’s not one of my faves, but Porter + Zach Evans? Gimme that 10/10 times. I also don’t think there’s any way Forbes lasts to our 2nd, he’s going in the 1st round despite his size.

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Yup just not at 6

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If I were a betting man (which I’m not) I’d put my money on Gonzalez still.

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Do yourself a favor then and don’t bet!

Not gonna happen

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Exactly this. I don’t think they need to be a top 10 defense to win the North. If they’re in the 10-20 range, assuming the offense continues to play like it has for the last 20+ games, I think they’re a playoff team. My fear is that the defense won’t be a Top 20 unit. Gonna have to see how much growth we get from the young guys, who we add in FA (Sutton should be a BIG help at CB) and the draft.

I’m hopefuly for a large improvement on the defense, but I’m also bracing for a letdown. The Lions D will HAVE to keep forcing turnovers at a top 10 rate and the offense will need to continue not turning the ball over, because with the amount of yardage they give up, it spells recipe for disappointment if they don’t, imo.

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and I will keep repeating until I am blue in the face…

Take a look at Darnell Washington and after watching his combine tape, his routes, his HANDS, his size and speed… how many guys in the NFL that catch like that, move like that and block like that? 9.78 RAS

Take a look at Bijan Robinson… a 9.77 RAS for a guy with ideal size, phenomenal tape and production, and excellent receiving skills…

Take a look at AT Perry at 6’4" and 200 with a 9.34 RAS- great short area burst, and huge catch radius… he had 26 TDs in the last 2 years…

Take a look at Darnell Wright… Will Anderson admitted he was the best OL player he ever faced… 9.47 RAS… Size and power to play RG all day, and nearly 34" arms makes long term prospect or RT or even LT a possibility…

So in my world…

We are superior at OL, WR, RB, and TE by quite a margin in size, talent, and athleticism…

We are paying 7M, 3.5M, 2.2M, 2.0M… That is 15MM total to literally complete the offense for YEARS

Goff- 2 (extension 3 years 130MM… AAV 43M-)
C Tune- 4 (1M AAV))

Bijan- 4 (6M)
Swift- 1 (2M same as replacment)

ASB- 2 (20M AAV)
Jamo- 4 (4.5M AAV)
Perry- 4 (2M AAV)
Raymond- 1 (3M AAV replacement)
Reynolds- 1 (1.5M AAV rookie deal mid round)
TK- 2 (1M AAV)

Washington- 4 (2.5M AAV)
J Mitchell- 3 (1M AAV)
Wright- 2 (can RFA tender next year) (3M AAV)

Decker- 2 (20M AAV… gone before others get expensive)
J Jackson- 1 (extend) (13M AAV)
Ragnow- 4 (13M AAV)
Big V- 2 (gone before anyone gets expensive)
Sewell- 3 (25M AAV)
Darnell Wright- 4 (2.5M AAV)
Awosika- 2 (2M AAV)

By this metric we are looking at about 150MM max in AAV (less in the 25’ year alone)

So that leaves us 122MM for the D… that is assuming we extend Goff, Jackson, Sewell, Amon Ra etc…

Hutch- 4 (9MM)
McNeill- 2 (after that 11M AAV)
Buggs- 2 (3MM)
Paschal- 3 (2.5MM)

AA- 3 (6MM)
Rodrigo- 3 (1MM)

Sutton- 3 (11MM)
Joseph- 3 (1.5MM)

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Yeah, we know. We see the same topics and posts recycled every day, mutliple times a day :laughing:

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So, was the defense really that bad when the offense was playing mistakeful football?

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This, plus Commish was out which had some impact as well. As the coaches said, too many players were trying to do much to cover for those that were making mistakes, a lack of trust.
I also wonder if that comes from AP not playing the scheme that Dan wanted the defense to play.