OTC article examining offseason gains and losses

Nice breakdown, even though the Lions didn’t spend bringing in outside UFA’s, they kept their own and were in top half of the league in terms of UFA’s Gains vs Losses. It also shows the value of the players lost by the Packers.


I think the thing people have to realize is that currently players don’t want to play here. We didn’t treat our marquis players well, we aren’t a winning franchise, and we don’t have warm weather or tax breaks. Makes no sense to overpay for players who just want to mail it in. We will change free agency by drafting, developing, and winning. Then the top FAs will want to come here for market value or even less.


I like seeing the Packers at the bottom of that chart, but if they hit on their draft picks like I’m expecting Brad to, they could make up for their losses in a hurry for Aaron’s last season in GB.

Lots of truth to all of this. Love your screen name. It’s gonna be a fun place to play and dudes will want to come here soon. :wink:

Well said …and currently all true.


The article summarizes my thoughts with this statement about the Lions (cluster with a couple other teams):

“I would anticipate that expectations for these teams are the same as what they were last season“

I know it’s the offseason, the koolaid is flowing…. But it’s pretty reasonable to assume this is a 4-6 win team next year.

We have the youngest team, so a lot of our players will be getting better by just having another year on their rookie contract. Other than Brockers, not many of our players have hit the point where we shouldn’t expect them to be better than last year.


The problem is that the Pack can hit on their draft picks but expecting rookies to make major contributions is really pushing the envelope.

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Agreed. We are gonna improve a ton this offseason.


With 30 years of Packer PTSD, I have no problem conjuring up that nightmare.

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Detroit, Baltimore, Tampa and the Giants all kind of fall in this range with the Giants and Bucs being slightly negative. These teams are generally just running it back with a few additions and subtractions. I would anticipate that expectations for these teams are the same as what they were last season.

I agree

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Serious question to you and Natty then… how many wins is “younger players are going to be better” worth then in your opinion? I gave a 1-3 win improvement, and that upper end range I gave was doubling the teams wins. Many would say I’m being optimistic (I am a fan afterall). So I invite you both to refute that, and share how many more wins “getting better” should generate.

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If you break last season into 2 halves, how much better would you say they were in the 2nd half than the first? :wink:

To that point → They will improve more, from experience, knowing the system, knowing each other, the coaches, what’s expected of them, etc.
The level of improvement gets compounded by health.

AO, Iffy, Okudah, JJ all coming back healthy. Sure, some of them played a few games, while one of them played 10+…BUT… they didn’t play all together, and all healthy. Remember when our old OT Jeff Backus magically played better the last 2 seasons of his career, when we brought in Rob Simms? Because when you play next to talent, you dont’ have to overcompensate for the guy next to you. The amount of chip you have to get on a chip block isn’t as big…the amount of “burying the opponent” on a double team before you release to the next level is different…the amount of tripping over the G when you are pulling goes down, etc.

In other words, improving ONE MAN improves the entire unit, and ultimately the team. It works with all position groups, but especially OL and DL. I’m confident the improvement in the OL is worth a few wins in and of itself. dudes coming off off of injury will amplify this. Decker all year, Ragnow all year, in with the guys, and the amount of reps the backups got only assisted in further developing our talent.

I beielve the team we fielded the last half of the season would win 5 or 6 games without even adding in the injured guys. WITH adding in the injured guys, I expect at least a couple more…add the draft in…AND a softer schedule…I’ve got us at 10 wins.

I think even IF we started the same players we started in week 18, we would improve to 5 or 6 wins.
Add Ragnow, Chark, WR (rook that gets drafted), TE (rook Drafted)

To the D
Add → Iffy, AO, Okudah, JJ
Add–> Rook DE and DT…early to mid round S

I think it’s almost crazy that ppl can’t at the very least, understand this vantage point.

10 wins. Truly want to know how it works in Vegas so I can win some money. If Vegas has us at 6, I feel like 8 is a damn near sure thing. Id bet 1,000 on that, if the payout is good.


I’m not sure how you even quantify this but just being able to start the season with a no kidding NFL wide receiving corps is a major step forward. Last season by game 5 we were w/o our 1,2 and 3 for the rest of the season and we were talking about one of the worst WR rooms in the NFL to begin with. Then there’s the issue of injured players returning at positions on both sides of the ball, a draft that still hasn’t happened, possible free agent signings still to come and then the possibility of adding a player or two from final cuts. I think revisiting this when all those pieces are in place would give a better opportunity to make an educated guess.


Yes, injured players will return this year… but then more players will get injured. It’s not like once the injured players come back and the season starts, that all future injuries will be prevented LOL. I’ve never understood this line of thinking, but I read it literally every offseason. It’s very confusing.

Here we go again :slight_smile: Every offseason people will say “yea but next year we get guys back from injury” as if the process won’t begin again the following season. Then when the season starts, and the team loses some guys to injury, it will be “well it’s tough because of the injuries.” As if that’s something unique to the Lions, or something that’s preventable. Every team loses guys to injury during the season. Part of being a good GM is building your team to withstand the inevitable injuries that will hit during the season. Outside of a franchise QB getting hurt, injuries really shouldn’t be an excuse in a league with such violence (for the most part, exceptions do exist).

Totally fair.

This is the thing you wrote that I agree with the most. The OL having some good injury luck and having continuity could potentially be the single biggest factor for this team to hang it’s hat on. This I can get behind. I am excited for this part of the team no doubt.


Yup - Injuries will happen in the NFL…thing is…which guys and how many of 'em.
Last year we lost our entire WR corps (entire season)
Last year we lost our entire defensive backfield (damn near entire season)
Last year we lost 2/5 of the OL (more than 1/2 of the season)
…and more sprinkled throughout.

I’m guessing we don’t have that much injury next offseason. Wonder what Vegas odds are on that.

I’m sticking with my original statement…we will have approximately 1/2 of the starters from week 18 upgraded come week 1 of this year’s regular season. How many other NFL teams can say that?


they also had Collins quit on them….

Flowers pretty much saved his energy to walk in the bank to cash his checks…

and Fells just manned up asked for his release.

I’m not sure if I have seen a team lose a LT, starting CB, top pass rusher, and the “anticipated” top 2 pass catchers (Tyrell, Hock)… many of the “premium” positions… for large portions of the season.


True, but how many of them come back at the level in which they were before the injury. Like you can say “oh the Lions will have Okwara and Okudah coming back from injury this year”… sure, but at what percent will they be “coming back?” That argument never factors in the amount players can be diminished or slowed after coming back from these injuries too. Or the likelihood that a re-injury can happen.

I’ve literally spent every offseason for a decade having this same conversation with optimistic Lions fans. I believe counting “players coming back from injury” as “adding talent to your team” to be an argumentative fallacy, respectively. I hope you’re right about the win amounts brother. Can’t say I’m with ya in reason, but I am in spirit :slight_smile:


I’m wondering how much “blessing in disguise” it is? Look at how much work Reynolds and St Brown got it → super valuable experience and chemistry time w/Goff.
Look how many reps backup OL got in, and how they showed up…More depth and talent.
And if this is a blessing in disguise, look at the talent and depth that got developed at the CB/Nickel positions…WOW.

Getting Iffy, Okudah, AO back is gonna be a potentially a very big deal. Add JJ and whatever rookies come in…

I think the football Gods are finally smiling on the Lions

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I know you are, bro!

As for the injuries, extent of recovery, etc → all layers and levels. Will always be gray area. I think the way Brad handled FA this offseason is quite telling as to what they expect, but at this point, everything is just 100% offseason speculation among very handsome football fans!

I will say I’m most excited about the OL, but I’m the most intrigued by the cornerback position. I really have no idea what the Lions have at corner right now. Iffy looks super intriguing… but will he get exposed? Will he go to CB school this offseason and break out like AO did? Will AO prove last year was his new skill level, or regress? Okudah? I don’t even know what to think of him. The CB position is super wild card territory for me personally.