Our future is drafting Trey Lance

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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Ranking Trey Lance Over Trevor Lawrence as the Top QB in the 2021 Draft Class? Alrighty, We’ll Hear You Out

August 6, 2020, by Luis Medina Chicago Bears

In a recent PFF podcast, Austin Gayle, Mike Renner, and NFL Network insider Daniel Jeremiah discussed the draft-eligible quarterbacks of 2021. And in so doing, Jeremiah gushed over North Dakota State standout Trey Lance in a way I did not expect.

Listen to a snippet of the conversation right here:

“I entered the process thinking it’s going to be Trevor Lawrence all by himself. A gap. Then Justin Fields. And then the scrappy upstart from North Dakota State comes in third,” Jeremiah said. “And then when I watched all three of them, I was like man, if I don’t helmet scout and just evaluate the way they played, I had Trey Lance as the best one .”

Jeremiah also said: “He can make every play, with his arm and with his legs. He’s the best decision-maker by far, and that’s referenced and you can see the lack of turnovers. He’s selectively aggressive, so when there’s time to take shots he’s not going to be Checkdown Charlie. He’ll push the ball vertically down the field. And so I look at poise, decision-making, accuracy, play-making ability, toughness — he’s literally off the charts in all five of those key areas. To me, he was the most impressive of the bunch.”

With a profile like that, how can Lance not be the pick as QB1 in his class?

Lance was a standout performer for the FCS champion North Dakota State Bison as a redshirt sophomore. He threw for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns last season. But perhaps most importantly, Lance did not throw any interceptions. Seeing “0” in the INT column is tantalizing, even if it is against FCS opponents. And for good measure, Lance added 1,100 rushing yards (169 attempts) and 14 touchdowns. That’s 42 total touchdowns and just one turnover (Lance lost one of the four fumbles in 2018).

To be clear, Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will likely be the first QB off the board in the 2021 NFL Draft. In fact, the odds are overwhelmingly high right now that Lawrence goes with the first overall pick. But that we’re having a discussion about Lance (and even Justin Fields) being in the conversation makes my ears perk up. It’s impossible to look away from next year’s quarterback class when you’re a Bears fan. And with playmakers like Lance, Lawrence, and Fields, it’s easy to dream on one of those guys lining up in Chicago in 2021. More than that, it’s kinda fun.

And to think, the conversation is just getting started.

Lance won’t be referred to as the “scrappy upstart from North Dakota State” for much longer if praise like this keeps coming from respected draftniks like Jeremiah.

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This upcoming draft is going to be absolutely insane… and judging from this college season, my prediction is there are going to be a bigger amount of hits and misses than usual.

I am not a scout nor do I know any nor do I have any idea about what they do, but given what is happening (Wisconsin, LSU cancelling games, teams not even playing, etc) I don’t know how they are all approaching the upcoming draft class. Pair that with the caveat of all players getting an extra year of eligibility, and who knows who will come out. Additionally, I’m sure most teams and scouts will go based off last season and the season before as well for scouting (as they already do) but not necessarily have this year to see how a player improved/regressed.

Gonna be interesting to see how the 21 draft plays out. And goodness knows how much draft status and projections change from January to April.

And also too, where are the lions drafting and do they draft a QB?

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Yeah, from the looks of it, we probably won’t have a shot at Lance. Like I’ve said before, we’ll probably win some meaningless games at the end of the year and Quinn and MP will be back next year to do this all over again.
We’ll probably be drafting in the 10 range, give or take.

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I do still have faith the lions front office will do the right thing and dismiss at least one if not both of Quinn and/or Patricia. I can see a scenario of them keeping Quinn but firing Patricia… then again, I’ve been wrong many times!

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If all four declare (I think Wilson is being held in similar regard to Lance) then we should be in a position to draft one of the four.

Alex Smith playing makes it much more likely that WAS beats us next weekend (especially if Staff is out.)

If that happens we may just end up 3-13.

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Yeah, I’ve heard Wilson has looked good, haven’t checked him out until now. Man, he does have a quick release and seems to be quick on his feet as well. He has that impromptu ability kind of Mahommes-ish.
We’ll have to revisit this at the end of the year, this might become a very strong QB class.

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I’d love any of them. I’m most comfortable with Fields and Lawrence bc I’ve seen them play a ton but it does seem that all four are elite.

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These are my thoughts exactly.
Quinn will use the #10ish pick on a safety or something

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I don’t think we’ll be drafting low enough to get a chance at Trey Lance, unless we keep losing and some of these other teams win a few.

Otherwise if we’re looking at a QB it’ll be the kid from BYU or Trask if we go QB.

Suppose that depends if Quinn is there still, if yes, oh god he’ll draft something stupid and unnecessary

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Realistically if the likes of Lance, Fields or even Zack Wilson were to be available for us to pick as our QB of the future and our new GM deems that player to be the one - what would be a fair expectation to get in return for Stafford?

I personally wouldn’t have many concerns for Stafford deteriorating in the medium term. He will be that guy who is in or around a top 10 QB for the next 4 or 5 seasons and will have a handful of excellent games a season and a handful of mediocre ones too and I wouldn’t be for trading him.

But if you are a new GM and you come in and see the talent level here and feel that it isn’t up to the standard required then maybe the best way to kick start things is to cash in on your QB and get that cap hit off the books and replace it with a potentially high end QB with a rookie contract. So i can totally understand why the tires may well be kicked on it.

But what would be the going rate for Stafford? a first round pick? multiple first round picks? A first rounder and a couple more picks in the second/third round split over two years? or more?

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If we’re deciding to bottom out then trading Stafford is the way to go. Done right, we can turn it around in a hurry, just look at the Dolphins. The problem with Stafford is his contract/cap hit over the next two seasons. Because of it, I think we’ll have to settle for a single first round pick, and we might not even get that.

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Fair point and I would think the trade partner in this deal would have to be a team picking outside the top 10 or top 16 who won’t have a chance to draft one of the top 4 QBs in the draft and would see getting Stafford and his cap hit for whatever it costs as a better altrnative to giving up far more draft capital to move into the top 5 from the 20s.

Realistically who could that be? Colts might have the cap space to do to. Saints, 49ers may have the need but probably couldn’t take the cap hit. Raiders or Broncos maybe

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Right and next year’s going to be especially tricky since the cap might drop as much as 25%. It’s possible we’re stuck with Stafford, even if we draft another QB.

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I won’t be greedy God, any of the top 3 QB’s will do. Just lemme have one, just one please.
If order must be made, I’d say Fields first. I’ve seen the most of him, and his perfection so far this year has me giddy.

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https://youtu.be/tRODmLBT5G0

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I think the 49ers is a possibility. New England might be as well. Dallas is a possibility depending on what shakes out with Dak. I think we’d be lucky to get a 2nd out of Staff at this point.

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Is it worth moving on for a 2nd round pick? Obviously there is a risk reward with every decision and for argument sake when it comes time for the Lions to pick probably anywhere from 7th to 14th and Lance, Barmore, a potential stud receiver in Rondale Moore or Waddle or even someone like Parsons if picking in the top 10 are available then is picking Lance really the best bet if all you can get for Stafford is a second rounder.

Lance may well become a top 10 QB and better than Stafford but will need time to find his feet while the defense is still going to be mediocre without an infusion of talent. In that type of situation I’d rather keep Stafford and possibly restructure/extend him and free up some cap room and kick the QB in the first round can down the road for 2 to 4 more years.

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I don’t think your getting said ‘multiple’ first round picks for Stafford who is in his 30’s and never reached a bowl. Matt is real good but not Elite. He “looks” worse than he is because he has to play for The Three Stooges ~Here~.emphasized text**emphasized text

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By draft day Wilson will go above Lance. NFL decision makers are notoriously risk averse, and Lance’s relatively scant experience against awful competition will scare them off. His one subpar game this year won’t help.

Wilson’s competition isn’t great, but it’s still an order of magnitude or two better than Lance’s. And he will have played more games, and more recently (recency bias). Plus his traits are good enough to warrant it, his arm talent is obvious, he’s a good athlete and great off-platform, and he’s really, really accurate. He deserves to go high.

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27th in completion percentage
23rd in rating
18th in QBR
16th in TDs
5th in INTs

Not sure how he is considered a top 10 QB by any stretch of the imagination.
They aren’t getting a first round pick for that.

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