Playoff Picture

The War Room Detroit Lions — The Den
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I can’t believe we’re even looking at this, but here we are.

4 games left. Lions are battling with the Buccaneers, Commanders, Giants, Seahawks, Packers, Panthers and Falcons for the final playoff spots.

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Commanders

I can see the Commanders going 2-2 to finish out the year. That’d put them at 9-7-1. They’ve been on a roll for sure but they have 2 divisional games with the Giants and Cowboys (both at home) + a matchup on the road against the 49ers. I can see them potentially going 3-1 and finishing at 10-6-1

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Giants

I can see the Giants going 2-2 to finish out the year as well, possibly 1-3. The Giants haven’t been playing their best football recently and have 3 road games against the Commanders, Vikings and Eagles. I can see the Giants finishing 9-7-1 or 8-8-1.

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Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have been struggling lately and only currently hold a playoff spot because they lead the NFC South at 6-7. They do have a bit of a tough schedule remaining with 2 divisional games, a road trip to AZ and the Bengals next week. The Bengals have looked tough, especially on defense recently. They do have Tom Brady though, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see them go 3-1, even though I’m expecting 2-2/1-3 here. I can see them finishing at 8-8.

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Seahawks

The Seahawks are probably the biggest obstacle for the Lions imo. The Lions own the tiebreaker between the Giants/Commanders, but that likely won’t be a factor with their tie. The Seahawks obviously own the tiebreaker with the Lions, so that doesn’t bode well. What does bode well is the fact that the Seahawks have the 49ers (albeit without Garappolo and Samuel amongst other injuries) and the Chiefs. They also host the Jets and Rams + get the Seahawks at home though. I can see the Seahawks finishing up 3-1 or 2-2 putting them at 10-6 or 9-7 + owning the tiebreaker with us.

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The Packers, Panthers and Falcons are all 1 win behind the Lions. Each of them has multiple divisional opponents left. The Lions play both the Packers and Panthers as well, but both games will be on the road for the Lions. The Lions will need to be sharp to create separation between them and these teams. A loss to any of them and I think it’s safe to say the Lions playoff odds fall even lower than 15%.

I think the 2 most obvious keys to the Lions making the playoffs here are 1) the Seahawks losing and 2) the Lions winning out - especially against Panters/Packers.

Frankly, after the start to this season I’m shocked we’re even in the picture…but I friggin love that we are.

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Edit - And just because we’re watching this too…1-3 finish for their last 4 perhaps?

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I see the Seahawks finishing 2-2 at best with their schedule. I also don’t think its unrealsitic to expect the Giants to lose out. 3 of 4 on the road. Two of those teams have the best record in the NFC and the other is a division opponent who you just tied with at home. Even the Colts are no gimme with a solid defense and run game. The Commanders are likely in. I think they beat the Giants this week. I don’t see them beating the 49ers. The Browns games in no gimme though. Hopefully Dallas isn’t resting anybody and take it to the Commanders. I personally see 2-2 here.

The trick is going to be Seattle, IMO. If they only win 1 more game I think we can lose a game and still make the playoffs.

If we win out we are in. Sure that isn’t 100% mathmatically, but two of Seahawks, Giants, and Commanders need to win 3 out of 4 and I don’t see that happening with those schedules.

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I think 10 wins gets us in through the war of attrition among the other teams.

At 9-8, the Lions would need a ton of help and everything to go just right (which it rarely does).

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We would need help, but I don’t think it is as much as we think. The Giants have a brutal schedule and could realsitically not win another game. The Seahawks have a gimme in week 18 agaisnt the Rams, but play the 49ers and Chiefs along with a tough Jets team. They could realistically go 1-3. The Commanders will likely beat the Giants this weekend, putting them at 8 wins. I don’t see them beating the 49ers or Dallas if they are playing starters. That means they would have to beat the Browns to get to 9 wins which is no gimme.

If we can finish 3-1, I think we would still have a decent shot.

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I am 95% certain that the seahawks beat the rams to end the year, but they did almost lose to them a few weeks back. Combine that with baker is at a minimum better than perkins/worford at this point and he will have a few more weeks of learning the playbook and i am concerned about that game from a beans perspective and cautiously optimistic from a playoff perspective.

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Going to borrow this one from Phunnypharm:

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But you forgot what happens when the Giants and Commanders tie again!! Back to back ties and we are golden. At least I think.

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It would take 1 more potential win from both teams so yes that would be helpful

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First part–Lions & Vikings related:

There was curiosity this past week over the Minnesota Vikings being underdogs Sunday at the 5-7 Detroit Lions. It brought a lot of attention to the Vikings being — let’s be polite here — maybe not quite as good as their 10-2 record coming into Week 14.

It also led to discussions about analytics in football and whether that mattered at all.

The nerds, and the Lions, won Sunday. Detroit beat the Vikings 34-23. There’s nothing wrong with a team that was 10-2 and will undoubtedly be NFC North champions, losing a game on the road. But it brings back all the questions about whether the Vikings are legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

The Vikings never looked like the better team Sunday. That says something about the Lions, who have won five of six and still aren’t dead in the playoff race after a 1-6 start to the season. Detroit played well. But the Vikings didn’t do much to slow the Lions down, either. They were smashed for 464 yards.

Analytics don’t like the Vikings and that’s where the two sides square off. Nobody who enjoys advanced stats would try to take the Vikings’ wins away from them or anything, but they’d tell you their run is unsustainable. You can’t have a barely positive point differential, an awful net yards per play and a DVOA ranking in the 20s and win like the 1992 Cowboys. That’s not how it works.

There are plenty of fans who don’t care about advanced stats. They’ll break out the old Bill Parcells line, “You are what your record says you are,” and that’s that. Not that they’re wrong necessarily. Nobody has raised a banner because they had a great EPA (that’s Expected Points Added … don’t worry, there’s no quiz later).

The Vikings weren’t going to win out, but Sunday was troubling for their believers. Minnesota even had a huge play that could have lifted it to the win (dare we troll Vikings fans and say “upset win”? Nah). On a fourth-and-4 in the third quarter, Kirk Cousins found Adam Thielen for a 23-yard touchdown. Minnesota inexplicably decided to go for the two-point conversion and didn’t get it, but it cut Detroit’s lead to 21-13. Then the Lions went on a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive and took back control of the game.

The biggest problem for the Vikings is the defense is cratering. Minnesota has allowed 400 or more yards in five straight games, the longest streak in franchise history, according to Fox. In four of those five games its opponent has reached 450 yards. On the first touchdown of the game, the secondary let rookie Jameson Williams run wide open on a deep over route when he caught a 41-yard touchdown. That set the tone for another miserable game from the Vikings’ defense.

The Lions weren’t going to let the Vikings back in the game to win it, like they did early this season. On a third-and-7 just inside the two-minute warning, the Lions sent offensive tackle Penei Sewell in motion, and then threw to him. He was wide open and caught it for 9 yards. Sewell’s catch set up a game-clinching field goal. That’s the dagger the Lions didn’t use in the first meeting.

Second part–Playoffs Related:

LOSERS

Post-Germany Seattle Seahawks: Maybe it’s a total coincidence, but the Seahawks haven’t been the same team since they boarded a plane to Germany.

Before that long trip to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Munich on Nov. 13, the Seahawks were 6-3. Counting the loss to the Bucs overseas, they’re 1-3 since, including a bad 30-24 loss to the Carolina Panthers at home Sunday. The only win came last week against the Los Angeles Rams, who are as injured as any team in the NFL.

The Seahawks fell behind 17-0 early in the second quarter and while they clawed back to cut the Panthers’ lead to three points, they couldn’t finish. The defense allowed more than 200 yards rushing. The offense missed top back Kenneth Walker III, who was out with an injury.

The Seahawks’ season has taken a sudden turn for the worse. It could cost them a playoff spot.

New York Giants: It’s hard to keep fooling 'em in the NFL if you’re severely outmanned. The Giants did their best for the first half of the season.

We saw New York exposed over the past few weeks. Nobody thought it was as good as its 6-1 record in late October indicated. Regression has come.

The Giants are 1-4-1 since that start after an uncompetitive 48-22 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. It was the most points the Giants have ever allowed at home to the Eagles. The Eagles are one of the elite teams in the NFL, but a team with playoff hopes like the Giants should show more life.

New York is still in the playoff mix but it won’t be easy to stay in it. The Giants’ schedule down the stretch isn’t easy. And their roster isn’t very good. There is a lot to fix in the offseason.

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@Nate

Apologies - I just noticed this thread:

If you or any mods might get a chance to merge this into thread into that one please feel free to do so. Very sorry, my mistake - I searched for a similar thread and didn’t see it.

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