Playoff Probs for week 4

So, I am going to bring this back on the new forum and try to do it each week again….

Lions are a weird 2-0-1 to start the season. They go into week 4 wanting to win at home and technically stay undefeated at 3-0-1. I cant find this post for week 3 ??

Currently, they are at a 51% probability to not make the playoffs. Week 2 we were at 65%. so our 2 wins helped. but we have to keep winning!

  • If we win against KC, it drops to 47%
  • If we loose, it goes to 57%

now, add is help from Philly beating GB, and Cards beating the Hawks, we go to 44%!

As the whole league sits today, If we win 8 of the 13 remaining games (62%), we go 10-5-1 and will have a 25% chance of not making the playoffs or have an 75% chance to clinch!
With other teams winning, we actually dropped from 19% in week 2. each game means more now!

We only go 9-6-1 and we will have an 68% chance of no playoffs. Crazy, that going into just the 2nd game of the season… the swing is so great +/- just 2 games!

If we go on an indefinite winning streak, we control our own destiny to win the division meaning we still control our own path without needing help from other teams.

We are currently projected to end the season as the 6th seed and a WC birth. We have Minny and Bears at 7/8 seed.

We are currently 9th as a projected SB winner with a 5% chance of winning it all at this date and time! it was less than 1% at the start of the season.

and to end it on a positive vibe! Any record of 11-4-1 and we are a 97% or better to clinch!

that’s winning 69% of our remaining games of we can only lose 3 the rest of the way for this to happen.

What three games are we most likely to loose.

Currently, 4- 11 - 1 would officially eliminate us mathematically from the playoff race completely! So, there is hope!!