Credit to Logan Lamorandier on this post.
PFF has a some pretty detailed info in their QB Annual from the 2020 season. One thing I always love is their accuracy metrics section.
Question: There are two QB accuracy charts – one is Stafford and one is Goff. Which one is which?
Note - This is not a “Goff is better than Stafford” post. Just some more data to back up the “we went from the 10th best QB in the NFL to the 16th best QB in the NFL and got a boatload of picks for it” narrative that I’ve been pushing on this board.
It will all depend on the team the new regime can put around Goff by 2022, but the data continues to suggest, to me, that the Lions did well with that trade.
I love me some Stafford and yes the Lions failed him. That sucks.
It is worth noting that Matt did have one of the best all time WRs at his side who was replaced by the underrated Kenny Golladay. Also in tow Marvin Jones Jr. and Golden Tate. That are four very solid WRs who also were with Stafford as he learned how to be a good QB under Caldwell.
Goff had some fine weapons too esp. in the running game. But look at the careers of the #1 Wrs brought in there to help Goff: Sammie Watkins and Brandin Cooks. Those guys ARE good but they are no Calvin or Golladay. Or Marvin Jones or Tate for my money.
Watkins has only had 1 1,000+ yard season and he hadn’t hit 15+ yards per catch since he left LA. Watkins is a glorified #2 WR and he may not even be that anymore.
Brandin Cooks IS a good WR still. But he hasn’t averaged 15.0+ YPC since 2018 with Goff. 2019 Brandin had some concussion scares and he and Goff never got on the same page. In an overreaction the Texans grabbed Cooks to replace D. Hopkins who went to Arizona. Cooks was mostly the #2 WR with the Texans to Fuller.
Point is Stafford never had enough around him. But having Calvin, Kenny, Marvin and then Golden Tate was pretty nice too. Not to bag on Cooper Kupp or Robert Woods who are pretty good too but they ain’t Calvin or for my $ Kenny.
Stafford had enough around him to be successful for about 4 out of his 12* seasons with the Lions.
2009, 2010 and 2019 were cut short due to injury, so 4 out of 9 seasons might be more accurate.
Everyone keeps saying Stafford never had a running game, but we all acknowledge the OL has been solid for several years and that the team has spent a lot of resources on RB’s over the years. The stats would indicate the Lions never had a running game while Stafford was here, but we’ve got to attribute some of that to the fact that the Lions passed so frequently during his tenure. It’s hard to have a solid ground game when you’re throwing the ball 40+ times a game. As an offensive coordinator, I can understand the desire to throw so frequently when you have #9.
The defense has been abysmal for several of the seasons he was here, particularly while Patricia was here. In 2014 he had one of the best defenses in NFL history though. There were a few seasons where the defense was solid prior to Patricia being here.
We can’t say Stafford “never” had talent around him. It simply isn’t true and I’ll continue to argue that point until I can no longer type. He had average or above average talent around him for nearly half his career in Detroit. He had sub-par talent around him for the other half, no doubt.
This fits with what we see. Goff is a more accurate thrower when given time. Stafford throws more wow and deep balls.
I’d love to see Wentz and Dak too. People say Dak is accurate but I think he is below Stafford by a good amount based on my eye test.
8 points is not insignificant. Stafford was over 9% in throwing behind the WR. That was true based on the eye test. Those end up being catches a lot of times, but not runs after the catch. The more I watch of Goff the more I am ok moving forward with him as the guy for the long haul.
They just need to use him right. Use him to his strengths rather than designing a crazy, complex system and asking him to rise to that level.
Add a few RB’s and build the defense and they’ve got something.
Here’s to 12 years of Goff!
Oooh! I don’t know if I’m ready to toast or commit to that lol.
Let’s see how the next 2 seasons go first.
For the record I am NOT saying Matt had enough weapons around him, esp. a killer RB. Matt had injured and cast off Rbs and guys that never lived up to their draft status. From Kevin Smith to Jahvid Best to Mikel LeShoure to Joique Bell to Reggie Bush to Maurice Morris to Ameer Abdullah to Theo Riddick (mostly a great pass catcher with Matt) to LeGarrette Blount to Kerryon Johnson to Adrian Peterson ro Dwayne Washington and on and on. Most of those guys never found work after they left here. Theo did for a hot minute. Ameer Abdullah is still with the Vikes I think.
Mostly hot garbage regardless of where they were drafted. That ain’t good enough.
But I stand by some of Matt’s WRs have been really, really solid post 2013. Totus Young looked amazing as a rookie. But then he went crazy in 2012. And we busted on Ryan Broyles and Derrick Williams. That was the year Kris Durham “helped” the Lions. Also think Patrick Edwards. Eric Ebron.
But from 2014 on we have always had at least two if not three great WR options for Matt and his numbers also reflect that reality even if we busted on Ebron. At least we had Calvin, Tate, Jones or Golladay.
Why not? It will need to take that long to see if he can win here or not.
I respectfully disagree.
I think many of those RB’s could have caught on elsewhere and played well. Several of them did.
It’s all about how they are used and the positions they are put in. The Lions opted to throw the ball more than most other teams and run less than most other teams. When you do that, and split carries by committee, of course none of them will come off as “good” RB’s.
I argue that Stafford has had plenty of talent around him over the years. It wasn’t always used correctly though, no doubt about it. This doesn’t mean the players weren’t talented.
Bush, Bell, Best, Riddick, Peterson, Swift…All of those guys were good players when used correctly. Better than “hot garbage”, anyhow. None of them were superstars though - I would agree with that. Most RB’s aren’t Peterson in his prime.
To me - It’d be like throwing the ball to Marvin Jones once a game, not seeing the production, and then referring to Marvin as “hot garbage” because of the results.
And, again, if we need to have superstars around Stafford to win, then what’s the difference between him and another QB that needs superstars around him to win?
Goff had Cupp and Wood both in the top 5 in the NFL for yards after the catch, over 1,000 yards between them. That has everything to do with where the ball is placed.
Maurice averaged 4 yards per carry throughout his 10 year career and was solid.
Adrian Pederson is one of the greatest of all time, but we obviously got him towards the very end.
Jahvid Best was good, but unfortunately injuries derailed his career.
Reggie Bush was a goddamn all star, though we got him a bit later in his career which was also unfortunately derailed by injury.
Ameer Abdullah is still in the league and is capable of playing a role. RB’s usually don’t last 7 years in the league if they are “garbage”.
Swift is an excellent RB.
Riddick was one of the best pass catching RB’s in the league when we had him, although his ground game was lacking.
None of these guys are “hot garbage”. None of them are Kamara or Henry, but let’s not keep pretending the Lions “never” put any talent around Stafford. It’s ridiculous.
Bottom line, I’ve seen elite QB’s succeed without being surrounded by the perfect OL, HOF WR’s, and HOF RB’s. If we’re going to roll with a QB that needs all of those things to succeed then I’d rather have one that is 26 and comes with 2 1st round picks and a 3rd that is just entering his prime.
By the time we got Reggie Bush he was entering his 8th year in the league. And he was good in 2013. He had 1,003 yards for us. I’ll take that! But Reggie was done by 2014. He only had 20 total carries the next two seasons. But hell yes Reggie was good in 2013 for us. The BEST Stafford ever had. Reggie had a combined 1,500 yards for us in 2013. Really good.
Joique Bell was done in the NFL after 2016. He was a fine #2 RB.
I mentioned Ameer playing for another team and I mentioned Theo with a team for a hot second. The Broncos I think. I didn’t mention McKisic who went to the Redskins after we had him for a year. Who did I miss that left us as a RB and had success somewhere else?
Bush being SO good makes 2013 even more tragic as that club had talent. 15th in least points allowed on defense. Better than most Lion seasons. 13th in points scored. Just not good enough esp. later in the season.
I’m looking for the . . . several that caught on elsewhere and played well.
Other than Bush and J Bell, the ones that came here from other teams were at the tail end of their careers and weren’t very good. LeShoure, K Smith, Best, Abdullah and even K Johnson because of injuries, lack of production are the very definition of “hot garbage”
Thats was WAY before Stafford.
Honestly if the best offer we had was Goff for Stafford straight up, I would have taken it. I dont see some huge dropoff and Goff is much younger.