You can never count on draft picks panning-out which is why someone like Billicheck likes as many draft picks as he can get his hands on.
The draft is 7 rounds and in the last two years, NE had 19 picks.
I say trade down whenever possible unless there’s some prospect you just are in love with …which I have a feeling that Quinn seems to fall in love with certain players: Tabor, Tavai, etc.
My understanding is that the Patriots have the SMALLEST draft board in the league, not the largest. Belichick narrows down his particular guys he wants and fits what he thinks will be successful, and then manipulates his position around the draft to secure those individuals. If he is at a point in the draft where the guys don’t match the pick, he punts the pick and collects extra picks. He doesn’t stay there and just take blind shots in the dark like many teams do.
I get having YOUR board as a team, with guys that fit your scheme or guys you covet.
And I understand that the Pats hardly never draft within the top 20 of the draft.
I don’t believe that teams are taking “blind shots” on players. Quinn didn’t think he was taking a blind shot on Teez, Quinn just doesn’t know how to scout players or understand their value.
I think your best shot at hitting on picks is having as many picks as possible.