Quinn reveals his hand?

BQ yesterday on the local news channel, said something like: " if we move down and we think we can get the 4 or 5 guys we like, then yes we would be interested.

I believe there will be a mad rush to get a QB and WR.'s.

It sound as if the bottom of the draft wants to move up in this draft.

If MP and BQ are sitting at #6 and Jacksonville at #9 or lets say Raiders at #12 want a QB. Could we get one the those 4 or 5 guys. I am going to say YES. BUT Giants are in a similar maybe even a better situation than the Lions I would argue.

A feeling we could get lucky because SD wants to leap Miami???

5 days till the Superbowl Baby!!!


draft is only in 5 days?

I thought they’d do the schedule release prior to the draft but maybe they’re waiting on that to see how long this crap drags out.

2020 NFL Draft


Image result for 2020 NFL Draft

Dates: Thu, Apr 23, 2020 – Sat, Apr 25, 2020

Status: no in-person attendance

Location: Bristol, CT

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I’ve been wondering for some time about this question: Is simply HAVING that 2nd round pick (lets say we get that minimum for any sort of small trade down) worth more than any one player vs another at 3? In other words, what is more valuable? Having an extra (high) second round pick in this particular draft or being able to draft Okudah (or Brown or Wills or Simmons) over the next best player you might have to settle for (probably one of those same guys)? Its an interesting debate, and the answer depends on how you value each prospect and how you value the players you’ll find at the top of the 2nd.

good stuff ted, as always… I think of the draft as a crapshoot—literally. I’m stoked because we get shiny new players and the possibility that more than one can/could be very productive and useful each offseason.
I really enjoy the mocks, and reading breakdowns on these guys, I like to see who our DEN members like/favor each year, I love trying to figure out who is best ‘for us’ , the combine, free agency, news, but The Actual Draft ? I am just like you , do we stay, do we move? what is the benefit real/meaty benefit of trading down vs staying put. what will our GM actually do, because we have no say?

This blows over and we have a few months to comb over who we wound up with and what was trash vs treasure , how the new guys stack up were we need them , a few season predictions and before we really know it we have actual regular season football.

I pay close attention to WHO we draft, then settle back into the calm lull /regular again here in the DEN… rinse-repeat really…but not having actual games during these seasons, it’s quite nice to have the draft.

Well Miami probably wants a QB and Giants probably taking Simmons or OT. So if you trade down with Miami, unless you want Simmons, OT or QB, your guy is almost certainly still there at 5. So a 7th rounder should be enough for Quinn to trade down, it’s a free extra pick. Now trade with Raiders, that’s a different story.

we got to include 2nd rounders as semi -firsts as well because your going to have teams jus fall in love with A certain prospect and want him in thee worst way, weather he happens to be from either round. your going to have teams reach a little and take some risks, as well as some of the “higher” prospects slide somewhat.
so I don’t JUST lock in totally in on 1st-round prospects and thats shut , done, period.

people are going QB crazy right now bc the opening draft is going to be friggen explosive as to how the rest of the draft plays out QB-wise.

I’ve not seen this apeshit QB frenzy in some time, almost like Tom Brady himself is sitting there again.
But teams can go all over the map after the first 3 picks based off who they love most rounds one and two.
I HOPE this draft is not massively overwhelmed by commercials and interruptions that have nothing to do with NFL Football.

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I have this feeling that Washington is going to get an absolute haul that they can’t refuse. It kind of sucks for the Lions until you realize the consolation prize is Chase Young. (I mean I hope they take him if he’s sitting there)


Quinn also mentioned teams usually make their deal pretty much before the draft so there is no “surprises” he says. So I wonder if Monday, Tuesday, Wednesdays are the okay boys whatcha got?? Skins may be like okay we’ll take that we have a new head coach who wants to build a team. I could see that too…

Yes, it’s an interesting question that I think is impossible to determine
Based on everything I’ve read (here) it seems anyone after Young has question marks
Okudah gets so much praise but some interesting questions by some
I hate to say it but even getting just a high 2nd might be all that’s in the cards
Or maybe a 5-7th throw in
Not that you can’t build the bottom of your roster with late round guys …
Every team has ‘em

Gil Brandt believes all 3 of Miami’s 1st round picks is fair compensation for #3.

So if you’re talking about moving further down than that, then surely we’re looking for more than a 2nd rounder.

That’s not happening. That’s +1100 on the trade value chart. I don’t think that’s ever happened. The skins ended up giving up +2890 for RG3 but if you actually apply the future picks are worth one round less in value and take it from the time of the trade then it’s really only +60. Though the latter methodology always underrated future first round picks.

I’d read that both the Darnold and Wentz trades were +900. I actually don’t think they accounted for future picks by subtracting a round of value per year. When you do that the Colts got +620 from the Jets and the Browns actually received negative value when applying the future pick devaluation method (which I would agree is flawed.)

The Cardinals did get +700 plus Eric Metcalf. At that point Metcalf was far removed from his prime and probably of little value.

Regardless, Brandt’s scenario has virtually zero chance of happening. Best case would be 5, 18 and 26 for 3 and 35. But even that is pretty unlikely IMO. There is historic precedent for that kind of value though.

Its tricky though. First, lets just establish that my saying a second rounder is a bare minimum. I really don’t think the pick will be traded for that little. At the very least it’ll be a 2nd plus another pick or two, be it this year or next. IMHO anyway, with history speaking on it. We may not get the haul that some other teams have gotten, and that’s Lions luck if I ever saw it, but we simply don’t know until it plays out. Teams are jostling and trying to frame the whole issue right now in their favor.

But its tricky because we may have a preference here. Quinn’s history says he is going to play it safe with a trade down. My best guess is he targeting one of three guys: Okudah; Wills, or Brown. I’m going to leave Simmons out.

Truth be told, I’d be shocked if we took Simmons. No knock against his abilities, but we just drafted two day two safeties the last two drafts AND traded for a free safety so that Walker could be put in his natural position covering TEs in a third safety role. I don’t believe Simmons is a linebacker, or if he is, that he’ll be a LB day one. He’s doesn’t have enough mass and he’ll get washed out at first. This is irregardless of what others think of Simmons and more how I view Quinn thinking about it. I just think Quinn is not going to waste a pick on a safety when he views that position as solid and has already put mass resources into it. This would definitely be my Quinn WTF pick, but I concede its totally possible. He could be content just using him as a chess piece or situationally year one. But with his job on the line I think he go for a safe pick that can definitely contribute day one.

So that leaves the other three. The lowest he is going to want to trade down then is 6 - to ensure getting a top tier player at a position of need. If he gets the OT, we simply put our newly signed RT at RG. Not a big deal, so I definitely think that is on the table. But I don’t think he’ll get or target the OT. If he wants the OT I’m going to guess he stays put. The Giants, and arguably the Dolphins are lying in wait as both have a need. Gettleman likes lineman. And if the Dolphins aren’t willing to trade up with all those assets, then they aren’t taking a QB is my guess.

So now that leaves Okudah and Brown. I don’t see the Giants or the Dolphins taking Okudah. They have bigger fish to fry in NY and the Dolphins have two good corners. I could see the Dolphins taking Brown, but the Giants just took Dexter Lawrence. The Giants would go OT first IMO. So for me, I think there is a pretty good chance that the Lions could get Okudah in a small trade down and take the win/win that you suggest.

However…another team could jump in a throw a major wrench in there, so its still a real gamble. If we trade back with SD, and the Giants take the best OT, the Dolphins may just auction the pick. Especially with a small trade down and still getting Brown. But even worse case scenario to end up with one of those three guys I mentioned with a trade down haul is still setting us up well.

If you are Quinn, you have to have all kinds of contingencies on what that traded back pick is worth so you get proper value on the front end of the trade i.e. you are going to ask for more to trade down if you are likely getting the 2nd best corner or the 3rd best tackle at the spot you traded back to. And that could happen early in the draft, as soon as pick 7 really.

Its already been reported an quoted that Lions are not following the chart. So anyone using chart is just a guide an I do think all 3 would be to much but 5,18, an 39 would be great an something like that could happen even 5…18…56 would work

I think if someone is going to give Washington an absolute haul, it might actually be FOR Chase Young.

Quinn said something akin to “we don’t use the Jimmy Johnson chart. We have our own. We think it’s more accurate because it incorporates the new rookie draft salary scale.” Well, the last change to rookie salaries had rookie salaries go way down (about ten years ago.). Therefore high picks should be of greater value on the Lions chart.

Still I don’t think they’re getting +1100 on the JJ chart. That’s the equivalent of the #5 and #6 picks for pick #3.

I would be amazing though. You could perhaps package 26 and 36 to get back up to 11-12 and get a second elite prospect and still have the chance that a third elite guy slips to 18.

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The pick chart is useless if a team doesn’t have a burning desire to trade up. So its just going to depend on how teams feel about Tua. This is the witching time for rumors, gossip, and smoke. IMO, this is where good negotiators can make the difference.

I’m going to keep my hopes in check
In a normal year Brandt may be right – no idea
This year?
I’ll have to see it to believe it