Its tricky though. First, lets just establish that my saying a second rounder is a bare minimum. I really don’t think the pick will be traded for that little. At the very least it’ll be a 2nd plus another pick or two, be it this year or next. IMHO anyway, with history speaking on it. We may not get the haul that some other teams have gotten, and that’s Lions luck if I ever saw it, but we simply don’t know until it plays out. Teams are jostling and trying to frame the whole issue right now in their favor.
But its tricky because we may have a preference here. Quinn’s history says he is going to play it safe with a trade down. My best guess is he targeting one of three guys: Okudah; Wills, or Brown. I’m going to leave Simmons out.
Truth be told, I’d be shocked if we took Simmons. No knock against his abilities, but we just drafted two day two safeties the last two drafts AND traded for a free safety so that Walker could be put in his natural position covering TEs in a third safety role. I don’t believe Simmons is a linebacker, or if he is, that he’ll be a LB day one. He’s doesn’t have enough mass and he’ll get washed out at first. This is irregardless of what others think of Simmons and more how I view Quinn thinking about it. I just think Quinn is not going to waste a pick on a safety when he views that position as solid and has already put mass resources into it. This would definitely be my Quinn WTF pick, but I concede its totally possible. He could be content just using him as a chess piece or situationally year one. But with his job on the line I think he go for a safe pick that can definitely contribute day one.
So that leaves the other three. The lowest he is going to want to trade down then is 6 - to ensure getting a top tier player at a position of need. If he gets the OT, we simply put our newly signed RT at RG. Not a big deal, so I definitely think that is on the table. But I don’t think he’ll get or target the OT. If he wants the OT I’m going to guess he stays put. The Giants, and arguably the Dolphins are lying in wait as both have a need. Gettleman likes lineman. And if the Dolphins aren’t willing to trade up with all those assets, then they aren’t taking a QB is my guess.
So now that leaves Okudah and Brown. I don’t see the Giants or the Dolphins taking Okudah. They have bigger fish to fry in NY and the Dolphins have two good corners. I could see the Dolphins taking Brown, but the Giants just took Dexter Lawrence. The Giants would go OT first IMO. So for me, I think there is a pretty good chance that the Lions could get Okudah in a small trade down and take the win/win that you suggest.
However…another team could jump in a throw a major wrench in there, so its still a real gamble. If we trade back with SD, and the Giants take the best OT, the Dolphins may just auction the pick. Especially with a small trade down and still getting Brown. But even worse case scenario to end up with one of those three guys I mentioned with a trade down haul is still setting us up well.
If you are Quinn, you have to have all kinds of contingencies on what that traded back pick is worth so you get proper value on the front end of the trade i.e. you are going to ask for more to trade down if you are likely getting the 2nd best corner or the 3rd best tackle at the spot you traded back to. And that could happen early in the draft, as soon as pick 7 really.
