Truth!!
What most fans and even oddsmakers overlook is the overall picture of a teams talent, the continuity of their coaching and scheme, and their trajectory.
Let’s take a look a the Bears over the past 3 years. They drafted Trubisky high (clearly a mistake) and then in the following year got him a very solid WR1 in Allen Robinson, a 2nd WR pass catcher incAnthony Miller, and a 2nd round center. The team also went all in on trading for game wrecker K Mack, drafted field general Roquan Smith, had stud safety Eddie Jackson entering year 2, and monster A Hicks entering year 3 with the Bears…
The bears were the 31st ranked defense in 2014. Enter Vic Fangio as DC… take a look at the 2015 Bears (similar to 2021 Lions) roster and defensive depth chart. It was bad, and the only viable player that lasted for more than 2-3 years was rookie CB Kyle Fuller…in Vics first year they jumped to #20 from 31! Then came the additions of A Hicks and Eddie Jackson, and ultimately Roquan and the big trade for Mack which helped vault them to the #1 D in 2018…
The in 2019 Fangio left for a HC gig, and the D slipped to 4th and forced 19 less turnovers. Then slipped again to 14th in 2020!
The Rams made a similar all in trade for Ramsey and had the top ranked D (though not quite on the level of the 2018 Bears) in 2020 with a D built around Donald, Ramsey, Floyd and a decent pair of safeties…
Enter 2021- salary cap hell, no first round draft picks the next 3 years, and Aaron Donald is now 30! Their pro bowl LT is 40! Their top two wrs have battled injuries, and regressed effectiveness. Goff can be blamed for that if people want, but look at yards after catch, separation yards, missed tackles, etc. They have both become less explosive, less open, and that likely had a huge impact on Goff.
Their stud DC is gone, and it will be hard to resign L Floyd who was great last year, replace OL holes, and fill in roster with such few resources.