One of these things is common. The other is not.
If you’re expecting any GM to always hit on guys 3-5, you’re going to be sad. Brad hitting so often in 3-4 over the first few years was actually insane.
Again, the average NFL career isn’t even the length of a rookie contract. So what does that say about how often these guys are even on the weekly 48? Most of these guys are lucky to be on a roster 3 years after they’re drafted.
How can you say one is true but the other is not?
They are directly related. You cant have 1 without the other.
And im not asking brad to do it every year.
Im simply showing the reason why the lions have regressed and why we have more roster holes than usual. Its not hard to figure out
I mean, this is fair. Obviously if Brad hits more, the team is better and has less holes. But it’s kind of a reductive statement, no? It’s like saying, “If the Lions just won every game, they’d win the Superbowl.” Well, yes, of course they would - but that’s not really a reasonable expectation.
I’m saying that the expectation that he drafts as well as he did his first few drafts is an unreasonable expectation. No GM is doing that. That being said, he can’t have 2024 drafts often - that one is not looking great 2 years-in. Even still, if we can salvage TA and Mahogany from it, it’s still not the worst draft in the world to go 2/6 for starters.
He is a victim of his own success. He has raised expectations to unrealistic levels and is being punished for it. Our last 20 ■■■■■■■ GMs could only dream of hitting on as many good players as he has.
Teslaa only Getting so many touches is not his fault or a sign of a bad pick by holmes. Put him on miami this coming season and he might lead the league in tds. Just because you draft a guy at a deep position dossier mean hes a bad pick. You can always trade from depth and guys do get hurt. Lose one of jamo or st brown for a good portion of the season and you would be happy teslaa was on the team.
For example.
Lions in that range. 3rd - 5th round picks. Averaged only 5% of O/D snaps the last 2 years
Seattle however
They averaged 24% of snaps.
Thats a massive difference that make a major impact for the team
The composition of their rosters were totally different heading into the past 2 drafts… so this is a totally apples to oranges comparison.
Sure the construction is different. But the efficiency is another. How do you expect to get better if your draft picks are riding the bench?
You cant without going hard in FA and trades. And last i checked. The lions made 1 signing the last 3 years that was a clear upgrade over what left. DJ Reader. Every other FA signing was simply a replacement for what left.
So either brad needs to draft way better than what he has the last 3 years or he needs to go hard in FA.
They simply did the lateral moves in FA again. So brad has to NAIL this draft for this team to improve
lol the Lions had two major holes heading into the draft last year. G and DE (and Alim for the beginning of the year) and a lot of people thought the Lions were already putting Mahogany at RG to replace Zeitler. Every other position had a solid starter entrenched.
QB: Goff
RB: Gibbs/DMo
WR: ARSB/Jamo/Patrick
TE: LaPorta
OL: Decker-Glasgow-Ragnow-Mahogany*-Sewell
DL: Hutch-Reader-Alim*-Davenport*
LB: AA-Jack-Barnes
CB: TA/Reed/Amik
S: Kerby/Branch
ST: Bates, Hatten, Fox
Let’s be honest when we’re talking about why the Lions rookies have were riding the bench - the roster has been really good for a bit. lol. No rookie being drafted had a chance to unseat any penciled in starter other than Mahogany or Davenport.
2 of the 3 Day 1/2 picks will be starters this year, and you can argue about the TeSlaa trade all you want, but we have 2 more day 1 and 2 picks coming in this year to fill holes, with plenty of ammo to move up into the 3rd for another one.
I just don’t understand what the issue is. Brad didn’t expect the Ragnow retirement, obviously. No team has tons of depth and the Lions again, literally the only team to lose as many games to injury as they have over the last 2 years and still finish the season with a winning record - so you can’t even say the depth has been terrible for as bad as they’ve been injured.
No team is going into an NFL season without question marks on their roster. The salary cap doesn’t allow for it.
Then why is the team failing? Injuries is the excuse? Why are injuries an issue if you have all these draft picks riding the bench.
You cant have it both ways
Name Brads best draft pick since Branch. Mid 2nd round pick in 2023!
17 players drafted with over 25 picks used. (14 of those were rounds 2-5 as stated)
Williams is below average for a NT.
TA might get tossed from the league. Ranking in the bottom 10% in NFL
Rateledge maybe. Average at best.
Teslaa cool redzone target.
You cant go through that kind of stretch in the NFL missing on that many draft picks and expect to be good.
Brad NEEDS to do better. He still can. We saw it first hand in Seattle.
But what did Seattle do to help their cause? Trade away a few fringe players for mid round draft picks.
Use that capital to move around in the draft to get MORE picks. Not use that capital and then some to move up!
Moving up is fine when your “1 player away” or whatever. But that was 2-3 years ago. This team isnt at that point anymore.
Here’s a secret. It really doesn’t matter HOW you construct your team. Whether it’s predominately through the draft, FA, trade, a mix of all 3. All that matters is that you supply your team with elite talent and you pray to god that they are healthy enough to make the playoffs and then make a run.
That’s it - that’s the sauce! No matter how you build your roster, you’re generally not making the playoffs if you’re near the bottom of the league in Adjusted Games Lost and you’re certainly not making it to the Superbowl.
You want to make a Superbowl? Be healthy. Here’s the last few Superbowl matchups and their AGL ranking that season:
2025: NE (#1) - SEA (#3) (Lions were #31)
2024: PHI (#2) - KC (#14) (Lions were #25)
2023: SF (#2) - KC (#6) (Lions were #18)
2022: PHI (#3) - KC (#4)
2021: LAR (#5) - CIN (#7)
2020: TB (#1) - KC (#9)
Man, it’s almost like not being injured is a huge benefit to these teams making the Superbowl because out of the last 12 teams to play in the Superbowl, only a single one of them was outside the top 9 in the NFL for that season and the one that was (2024 Chiefs who were #14 and lost to the #2) was still above average that year.
So no, being one of the worst injured teams over the last 3 years isn’t an “excuse”. It’s a reality. It’s crazy how the Lions, with a roster full of talent went to the NFC championship game when they were #18 in AGL and even that would’ve been an outlier, but have yet to really do anything since and they’ve been near the bottom of the league in AGL. It’s the same reason the 49ers went 6-11 in 2024, just a year after going to the Superbowl. Their team didn’t suddenly just start sucking. They went from being #2 in AGL to #32.
It doesn’t matter how well you draft. You will never be able to out-sign or out-draft injuries that decimate your roster in the salary cap era. You can’t. If you get ■■■■■■ by injuries hard enough, your shot at a Superbowl is gone. That’s it. No amount of 3rd-5th round draft picks is saving you.
So you can keep crying about Brad’s drafting all you want, but that time would be better spent praying to whatever holy or divine power you believe in that the Lions can get through the season and finish in the Top 10 of AGL for fhe season if you want them to have any shot of having a chance at making a Superbowl run.
The 3rd we got was an early 3rd, the three we gave up were 3 late 3rd rounders, two of which were the following year. Plus we got two sixes, which we basically used to get Miles Frazier.
Value wise, we gave up and extra 6th rounder for TeSlaa, it’s actually looking like a really solid pick.
He missed all of training camp plus 12 weeks of the regular season, the fact that he even contributed is quite an accomplishment.
You have a really poor understanding of the expectation of draft picks. Cherry picking one teams success doesn’t set the standard.
Man great post.
It’s wild to me how so many people refuse to accept that teams who have terrible luck with injuries almost never do well. Only two winning teams amongst the top 20 teams in adjusted games lost this century, and both of them were us, the past 2 years. Our staff has actually been doing a GREAT job.
I just can’t see how anyone can look at that and say “it doesn’t matter”, when history shows that yes, it does. Which you expertly laid out in your post. No one wants to learn any lessons about what has actually happened before. Aldous Huxley had it right about people learning lessons from history
.
Vaki teplaced JRM… who has made nearly $18 million in his career as a special teams specialist.
Others have made more money than that.
NFL staffs value special teams more than fans. 
JRM was a key blocker on ST. And played significantly on defense. Vaki is virtually only a gunner/ returner. Rarely playing defense.
You know like vet min Dorsey,
But again. Remove TeSlaa,
The rest of the picks averaged UNDER 3% of available snaps on O&D.
2 snaps per game. Thats an absolute failure.
I understand you cant expect him to bat 1.000 but hes hasnt even hit league average the last 3 drafts. In 3-5.
.
.
“played significantly”???
In 2021.. the tank year… sure.
In 2024… the only other year he played any kind of significant snaps… he had less snaps than Rodrigo, Nowaske, and Ben fuckking Nieman.
He was obviously not a part of the “plan” to get actual defensive snaps.
.
I can’t wait for the season when we lose and dbend is bitching about our O not scoring enough. Then we can revisit the quote of touchdowns being overrated 
Hey @DeadStroke , how much money does the team have -cap wise? you are thee only poster I trust about .this kind of thing.
$0
They are currently at ~$23.5m
Lets just say they get Rags money back.
Ok $27m.
$5m : 52&53 man on the roster Plus the placeholders for the injured Branch, Kerby and suspended TA.
$5m Draft picks taking the spots of placeholders
$15m for roster cuts/ in season elevation/ IR/ and possibly trade deadline
Thats ~ $25m so virtually $0 money left.
thanks, let us see if @DeadStroke comes out with that.